Test: Business Cycles- 2 - CA Foundation MCQ

Correct answer is option (C).
Economic indicators can be broadly classified into three categories:
Leading Indicators:
- These indicators change before the economy itself changes.
- Examples: stock market performance, building permits, and consumer sentiment.

Lagging Indicators:
- These indicators change after the economy has already started to change.
- Examples: unemployment rate, corporate profits, and labor cost per unit of output.

Coincident Indicators:
- These indicators change at the same time as the economy.
- Examples: gross domestic product (GDP), personal income, and industrial production.

Correct answer is option (A).
Lagging Indicators:
- Change after the economy as a whole changes
- Used to confirm long-term economic trends
- Examples include unemployment rate, corporate profits, and labor cost per unit of output

Coincident Indicators:
- Change at the same time as the economy
- Provide information about the current state of the economy
- Examples include GDP, industrial production, and personal income

Leading Indicators:
- Change before the economy as a whole changes
- Used to predict future economic trends
- Examples include stock market performance, building permits, and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing

Concurrent Indicators:
- Similar to coincident indicators
- Change at the same time as the economy
- Provide a real-time snapshot of the current economic situation
- Examples include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI)

 

Correct answer is option (A).

Leading Indicator

• Changes in stock prices


• Profit margins and profits


• Manufacturing activity


 

Correct answer is option (C).

A variable that moves later than aggregate economic activity is called:
a lagging variable

- Leading variable: A variable that moves ahead of aggregate economic activity, providing early signals of changes in the economy.
- Coincident variable: A variable that moves simultaneously with aggregate economic activity, providing real-time information about the current state of the economy.
- Lagging variable: A variable that moves after aggregate economic activity, providing information about past economic performance and confirming trends.
- Cyclical variable: A variable that moves in a cyclical pattern, reflecting fluctuations in economic activity over time.A variable that moves later than aggregate economic activity is called:
 

Correct answer is option (D).
Economic Indicators:

• Leading Indicators: Forecast economic fluctuations and predict future trends.


• Lagging Indicators: Confirm the trends and trends observed in leading indicators.


• Coincident Indicators: Reflect the current state of the economy and change simultaneously with economic conditions.

Answer:

• While leading indicators forecast economic fluctuation, lagging indicators confirm the trends (option d).


 

• Business cycle indicators are tools used to understand the current state of the economy and predict future economic trends.


• These indicators help policymakers, investors, and businesses make informed decisions based on the stage of the business cycle.

• Coincident indicators move in tandem with the business cycle and provide real-time information about the current state of the economy.


• They are used to confirm the current phase of the business cycle, whether it is in expansion or contraction.


• Examples of coincident indicators include GDP, industrial production, and employment levels.

• Since coincident indicators reflect the current economic conditions, they are valuable in assessing the overall health of the economy.


• By analyzing these indicators, policymakers can determine if the economy is growing or contracting and make appropriate decisions to stabilize it.


• For businesses, coincident indicators help in planning production levels, hiring decisions, and overall business strategies based on the current economic environment.

• Coincident indicators play a crucial role in providing real-time information about the current state of the economy.


• They help in understanding where the economy stands in the business cycle and guide decision-making for policymakers, investors, and businesses.

Explanation of the Answer

Coincident indicators are economic indicators that provide information about the current state of the economy or business cycle. They are useful for understanding the present conditions and for making short-term decisions. The answer is "D: all the above" because coincident indicators show:

1. The current state of the business cycle
- Coincident indicators help to identify the current phase of the business cycle, such as expansion, peak, contraction, or trough.
- Examples of coincident indicators include non-farm payroll employment, industrial production, and personal income.

2. The rate of change of expansion
- As the economy expands, coincident indicators provide information on the rate at which it is growing.
- This can help policymakers and businesses make decisions based on the current growth rate.

3. The rate of change of contraction
- Similarly, when the economy is contracting, coincident indicators can show the rate at which it is shrinking.
- This information is valuable for businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions during a contraction phase.

In summary, coincident indicators are essential tools for understanding the current state of the economy, including the business cycle phase, the rate of change of expansion, and the rate of change of contraction.

• Global GDP fell by around 15%: During the Great Depression of the 1930s, the global GDP experienced a significant decline of approximately 15%.


• Impact on economies: The sharp decrease in GDP had severe consequences on economies worldwide, leading to high levels of unemployment, poverty, and economic hardship.


• Causes of the Great Depression: The Great Depression was triggered by a combination of factors, including the stock market crash of 1929, bank failures, and a decrease in international trade.


• Government responses: Governments around the world implemented various measures to try and mitigate the effects of the Great Depression, such as the New Deal in the United States and increased public spending.


• Recovery: It took several years for the global economy to recover from the Great Depression, with World War II ultimately playing a significant role in stimulating economic growth.

Business cycles do not have uniform causes. They can be triggered by a variety of factors, including changes in interest rates, consumer confidence, government policies, and external shocks. The other statements are generally correct about business cycles.

• Trade Cycle Definition: A trade cycle refers to the fluctuations in economic activity that occur over time. It is characterized by periods of economic expansion (growth) followed by periods of economic contraction (recession).


• Economic Expansions: During an economic expansion, there is an increase in economic activity, leading to higher production, employment, and income levels.


• Economic Contractions: Following an economic expansion, there is a period of economic contraction where economic activity slows down, leading to a decrease in production, employment, and income levels.


• Cyclical Nature: The trade cycle is cyclical in nature, meaning that economic expansions are inevitably followed by economic contractions, and vice versa.


• Impact on Businesses: Businesses need to be aware of trade cycles as they can impact consumer demand, production levels, and overall market conditions.

Explanation:

• During upswing: This refers to a period of economic growth where businesses are thriving, leading to an increase in overall economic activity.


• Unemployment rate: During an upswing, the unemployment rate typically falls as businesses expand and create more job opportunities.


• Output: Output, which refers to the total amount of goods and services produced in an economy, usually rises during an upswing as businesses increase production to meet the growing demand.


• Relationship: Therefore, during an upswing, the unemployment rate falls while output rises, indicating a positive trend in the economy.


 

• Consumer spending increases: During the expansion phase, consumer spending typically increases as confidence in the economy grows and people are more willing to spend money on goods and services.


• Employment increases as demand for labour rises: During the expansion phase, businesses are growing and therefore need more workers to meet the increasing demand for their products and services.


• Business profits and business confidence increase: As the economy expands, businesses tend to see increases in profits and improved confidence in the market, leading to further investments and growth.


• None of the above: This option is not true as all the mentioned statements are typically observed during the expansion phase of the business cycle.

• Definition: When aggregate economic activity is declining, the economy is said to be in contraction. This means that the overall output of goods and services in the economy is decreasing.


• Signs of Contraction: During a contraction, there is often a decrease in consumer spending, business investment, and overall economic growth.


• Impact on Employment: Contraction can lead to higher unemployment rates as businesses may cut back on hiring or even lay off employees to reduce costs.


• Government Response: Governments may implement policies such as fiscal stimulus or monetary easing to try and stimulate economic activity and bring the economy out of contraction.


• Recovery: Eventually, the economy may start to recover from a contraction and enter a period of expansion where economic activity begins to increase again.

• GDP: GDP is a coincident indicator as it measures the overall economic activity in a country and provides information on the current state of the economy.


• Inflation: Inflation is also a coincident indicator as it reflects the changes in the overall price level of goods and services in an economy.


• Retail sales: Retail sales are considered a coincident indicator as they provide insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic activity.


• New orders for plant and machinery: This is not an example of a coincident indicator. It is actually a leading indicator as it gives an indication of future economic activity based on the demand for new capital goods.

Therefore, the correct answer is option D - New orders for plant and machinery.

Lagging indicators are economic measurements, such as gross domestic product (GDP), the consumer price index (CPI), and the balance of trade (BOT).

• Keynes: John Maynard Keynes is the economist who proposed the theory that fluctuations in economic activities are primarily due to fluctuations in aggregate demand. His theory, known as Keynesian economics, emphasizes the importance of government intervention in the economy to stabilize fluctuations and promote growth.

• High level of employment: When there is a high rate of investment, businesses expand and create more job opportunities, leading to a higher level of employment in the economy.


• Increase in the aggregate demand: Increased investment leads to higher production levels, which in turn increases the overall demand for goods and services in the economy.


• Increase in output: With more investment in infrastructure, technology, and resources, the overall output of goods and services in the economy also increases, contributing to economic growth.

Therefore, a high rate of investment brings multiple benefits such as increased employment opportunities, higher aggregate demand, and overall growth in the economy. It plays a crucial role in driving economic development and prosperity.

• Unemployment during the expansion phase of the business cycle: During the expansion phase, the economy is growing, and businesses are hiring more workers to meet the increasing demand for goods and services.


• Types of unemployment: There are several types of unemployment, including voluntary, frictional, technological, structural, and involuntary.


• Voluntary and frictional unemployment: Voluntary unemployment occurs when individuals choose not to work, while frictional unemployment is temporary unemployment that occurs when individuals are between jobs.


• Technological and structural unemployment: Technological unemployment happens when advances in technology lead to job losses, while structural unemployment occurs when there is a mismatch between the skills of workers and the requirements of available jobs.


• Frictional and structural unemployment during the expansion phase: During the expansion phase of the business cycle, there may be frictional unemployment as individuals transition between jobs, and structural unemployment as businesses struggle to find workers with the necessary skills.


• Answer: Therefore, if any unemployment exists during the expansion phase of the business cycle, it is likely to be a combination of frictional and structural unemployment.

• Increase in aggregate demand: When aggregate demand increases, it means that the total demand for goods and services in an economy is rising.


• Expansion of economic activity: The most probable outcome of an increase in aggregate demand is the expansion of economic activity.


• Reasoning: When aggregate demand increases, businesses experience higher demand for their goods and services. This leads to an increase in production, which in turn leads to an increase in employment, income, and consumer spending. As a result, the overall economic activity in the country expands.


• Impact: The expansion of economic activity can lead to higher economic growth, lower unemployment rates, and overall prosperity in the economy.

• Hawtrey: According to Hawtrey, a trade cycle is a purely monetary phenomena. He believed that fluctuations in economic activity were primarily driven by changes in the money supply and credit conditions.


• Keynes: Keynes, on the other hand, focused more on real factors such as consumer and investor confidence, government spending, and business expectations in explaining fluctuations in economic activity.


• Schumpeter: Schumpeter's theory of economic cycles emphasized innovation and entrepreneurship as the driving forces behind the business cycle.


• Nicholas Kaldor: Nicholas Kaldor, a prominent economist, made significant contributions to the theories of economic growth and income distribution, but his work did not focus specifically on trade cycles being a purely monetary phenomena.