Page 1 Module 10 Reasoning with Uncertainty - Probabilistic reasoning Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur Page 2 Module 10 Reasoning with Uncertainty - Probabilistic reasoning Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur 10.1 Instructional Objective • The students should understand the role of uncertainty in knowledge representation • Students should learn the use of probability theory to represent uncertainty • Students should understand the basic of probability theory, including o Probability distributions o Joint probability o Marginal probability o Conditional probability o Independence o Conditional independence • Should learn inference mechanisms in probability theory including o Bayes rule o Product rule • Should be able to convert natural language statements into probabilistic statements and apply inference rules • Students should understand Bayesian networks as a data structure to represent conditional independence • Should understand the syntax and semantics of Bayes net • Should understand inferencing mechanisms in Bayes net • Should understand efficient inferencing techniques like variable ordering • Should understand the concept of d-separation • Should understand inference mechanism for the special case of polytrees • Students should have idea about approximate inference techniques in Bayesian networks At the end of this lesson the student should be able to do the following: • Represent a problem in terms of probabilistic statemenst • Apply Bayes rule and product rule for inferencing • Represent a problem using Bayes net • Perform probabilistic inferencing using Bayes net. Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur Page 3 Module 10 Reasoning with Uncertainty - Probabilistic reasoning Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur 10.1 Instructional Objective • The students should understand the role of uncertainty in knowledge representation • Students should learn the use of probability theory to represent uncertainty • Students should understand the basic of probability theory, including o Probability distributions o Joint probability o Marginal probability o Conditional probability o Independence o Conditional independence • Should learn inference mechanisms in probability theory including o Bayes rule o Product rule • Should be able to convert natural language statements into probabilistic statements and apply inference rules • Students should understand Bayesian networks as a data structure to represent conditional independence • Should understand the syntax and semantics of Bayes net • Should understand inferencing mechanisms in Bayes net • Should understand efficient inferencing techniques like variable ordering • Should understand the concept of d-separation • Should understand inference mechanism for the special case of polytrees • Students should have idea about approximate inference techniques in Bayesian networks At the end of this lesson the student should be able to do the following: • Represent a problem in terms of probabilistic statemenst • Apply Bayes rule and product rule for inferencing • Represent a problem using Bayes net • Perform probabilistic inferencing using Bayes net. Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur Lesson 26 Reasoning with Uncertain information Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur Page 4 Module 10 Reasoning with Uncertainty - Probabilistic reasoning Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur 10.1 Instructional Objective • The students should understand the role of uncertainty in knowledge representation • Students should learn the use of probability theory to represent uncertainty • Students should understand the basic of probability theory, including o Probability distributions o Joint probability o Marginal probability o Conditional probability o Independence o Conditional independence • Should learn inference mechanisms in probability theory including o Bayes rule o Product rule • Should be able to convert natural language statements into probabilistic statements and apply inference rules • Students should understand Bayesian networks as a data structure to represent conditional independence • Should understand the syntax and semantics of Bayes net • Should understand inferencing mechanisms in Bayes net • Should understand efficient inferencing techniques like variable ordering • Should understand the concept of d-separation • Should understand inference mechanism for the special case of polytrees • Students should have idea about approximate inference techniques in Bayesian networks At the end of this lesson the student should be able to do the following: • Represent a problem in terms of probabilistic statemenst • Apply Bayes rule and product rule for inferencing • Represent a problem using Bayes net • Perform probabilistic inferencing using Bayes net. Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur Lesson 26 Reasoning with Uncertain information Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur 10. 2 Probabilistic Reasoning Using logic to represent and reason we can represent knowledge about the world with facts and rules, like the following ones: bird(tweety). fly(X) :- bird(X). We can also use a theorem-prover to reason about the world and deduct new facts about the world, for e.g., ?- fly(tweety). Yes However, this often does not work outside of toy domains - non-tautologous certain rules are hard to find. A way to handle knowledge representation in real problems is to extend logic by using certainty factors. In other words, replace IF condition THEN fact with IF condition with certainty x THEN fact with certainty f(x) Unfortunately cannot really adapt logical inference to probabilistic inference, since the latter is not context-free. Replacing rules with conditional probabilities makes inferencing simpler. Replace smoking -> lung cancer or lotsofconditions, smoking -> lung cancer with P(lung cancer | smoking) = 0.6 Uncertainty is represented explicitly and quantitatively within probability theory, a formalism that has been developed over centuries. A probabilistic model describes the world in terms of a set S of possible states - the sample space. We don’t know the true state of the world, so we (somehow) come up with a probability distribution over S which gives the probability of any state being the true one. The world usually described by a set of variables or attributes. Consider the probabilistic model of a fictitious medical expert system. The ‘world’ is described by 8 binary valued variables: Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur Page 5 Module 10 Reasoning with Uncertainty - Probabilistic reasoning Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur 10.1 Instructional Objective • The students should understand the role of uncertainty in knowledge representation • Students should learn the use of probability theory to represent uncertainty • Students should understand the basic of probability theory, including o Probability distributions o Joint probability o Marginal probability o Conditional probability o Independence o Conditional independence • Should learn inference mechanisms in probability theory including o Bayes rule o Product rule • Should be able to convert natural language statements into probabilistic statements and apply inference rules • Students should understand Bayesian networks as a data structure to represent conditional independence • Should understand the syntax and semantics of Bayes net • Should understand inferencing mechanisms in Bayes net • Should understand efficient inferencing techniques like variable ordering • Should understand the concept of d-separation • Should understand inference mechanism for the special case of polytrees • Students should have idea about approximate inference techniques in Bayesian networks At the end of this lesson the student should be able to do the following: • Represent a problem in terms of probabilistic statemenst • Apply Bayes rule and product rule for inferencing • Represent a problem using Bayes net • Perform probabilistic inferencing using Bayes net. Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur Lesson 26 Reasoning with Uncertain information Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur 10. 2 Probabilistic Reasoning Using logic to represent and reason we can represent knowledge about the world with facts and rules, like the following ones: bird(tweety). fly(X) :- bird(X). We can also use a theorem-prover to reason about the world and deduct new facts about the world, for e.g., ?- fly(tweety). Yes However, this often does not work outside of toy domains - non-tautologous certain rules are hard to find. A way to handle knowledge representation in real problems is to extend logic by using certainty factors. In other words, replace IF condition THEN fact with IF condition with certainty x THEN fact with certainty f(x) Unfortunately cannot really adapt logical inference to probabilistic inference, since the latter is not context-free. Replacing rules with conditional probabilities makes inferencing simpler. Replace smoking -> lung cancer or lotsofconditions, smoking -> lung cancer with P(lung cancer | smoking) = 0.6 Uncertainty is represented explicitly and quantitatively within probability theory, a formalism that has been developed over centuries. A probabilistic model describes the world in terms of a set S of possible states - the sample space. We don’t know the true state of the world, so we (somehow) come up with a probability distribution over S which gives the probability of any state being the true one. The world usually described by a set of variables or attributes. Consider the probabilistic model of a fictitious medical expert system. The ‘world’ is described by 8 binary valued variables: Version 2 CSE IIT,Kharagpur Visit to Asia? A Tuberculosis? T Either tub. or lung cancer? E Lung cancer? L Smoking? S Bronchitis? B Dyspnoea? D Positive X-ray? X We have 2 8 = 256 possible states or configurations and so 256 probabilities to find. 10.3 Review of Probability Theory The primitives in probabilistic reasoning are random variables. Just like primitives in Propositional Logic are propositions. A random variable is not in fact a variable, but a function from a sample space S to another space, often the real numbers. For example, let the random variable Sum (representing outcome of two die throws) be defined thus: Sum(die1, die2) = die1 +die2 Each random variable has an associated probability distribution determined by the underlying distribution on the sample space Continuing our example : P(Sum = 2) = 1/36, P(Sum = 3) = 2/36, . . . , P(Sum = 12) = 1/36 Consdier the probabilistic model of the fictitious medical expert system mentioned before. The sample space is described by 8 binary valued variables. Visit to Asia? A Tuberculosis? T Either tub. or lung cancer? E Lung cancer? L Smoking? S Bronchitis? B Dyspnoea? D Positive X-ray? X There are 2 8 = 256 events in the sample space. Each event is determined by a joint instantiation of all of the variables. S = {(A = f, T = f,E = f,L = f, S = f,B = f,D = f,X = f), (A = f, T = f,E = f,L = f, S = f,B = f,D = f,X = t), . . . (A = t, T = t,E = t,L = t, S = t,B = t,D = t,X = t)} Version 2 CSE IIT,KharagpurRead More

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