Population Change | Geography for GCSE/IGCSE - Year 11 PDF Download

Population Change

There are two ways in which a population can change: 

• Migration
• Natural population change

Migration

• Migration can lead to population growth or decline, which is influenced by both emigration and immigration.
• Emigration and immigration are the primary factors driving population changes.
• Net migration, calculated as the variance between the number of individuals arriving in a country (immigrants) and those departing (emigrants), determines the overall impact on population size.

Natural Population Change

Natural Causes of Population Change

• There are various factors contributing to the rapid growth of populations, including advancements in:
  • Agriculture during the agricultural revolution, resulting in increased yields and more diverse diets.
  • Improvements in medicine and healthcare, leading to lower mortality rates.
  • Technological advancements and better transportation, creating wealthier societies with increased life expectancies.
• The birth rate has remained high, particularly in Less Economically Developed Countries (LEDCs) due to:
  • Limited access to family planning and contraception.
  • Higher survival rates of women during childbirth.
  • Cultural norms that encourage larger families to provide care for elderly parents and support the family.
  • Religious beliefs that promote larger families, which can take generations to change.
• Natural population change is calculated by subtracting the death rate from the birth rate. The combination of a declining death rate and a high birth rate has resulted in rapid natural growth and population surges.
• Population dynamics are also influenced by migration, both into and out of a region. 
• Natural decrease occurs when the birth rate falls below the death rate.

Demographic Transition Model

• The demographic transition model outlines the five main stages that countries typically go through as they develop.
• It explains how birth and death rates evolve over time, impacting the country's overall population.

Stage 1

• In Stage 1, the total population remains low.
• High birth rates are a result of limited contraception and family planning methods.
• Elevated death rates stem from inadequate healthcare, poor nutrition, and periodic famines.
• High infant mortality prompts families to have more children to ensure some survive into adulthood.

Stage 2

• During Stage 2, the population begins to grow rapidly.
• Birth rates stay high as families continue having many children.
• Death rates decline due to improved diets, better healthcare services, reduced infant mortality, and enhanced access to clean water sources.

Stage 3

• The total population continues to increase but the rate of growth begins to slow.
• Birth rate starts decreasing rapidly due to factors like increased birth control, family planning, higher cost of raising children, and low infant mortality rate.
• Death rate keeps decreasing, albeit at a slower pace, thanks to advancements in medicine, hygiene, diet, and water quality.

Stage 4

• The total population remains high and is increasing gradually.
• Birth rate is low and fluctuating due to the availability of birth control, the choice of having fewer children, and delaying the age at which women start having children.
• Death rate is low and shows fluctuations.

Stage 5

• Population growth continues at a steady pace.
• Birth rate remains low and varies due to factors like accessible birth control and the decision to have fewer children or delay childbirth.
• Death rate stays low and exhibits fluctuations.

Population Change

• All countries exhibit varying rates of population change.
• LEDCs like Niger, Mali, and Zambia currently experience the highest population growth rates.
• MEDCs generally have lower population growth rates; for instance, countries like Italy and Japan are witnessing a decline in population due to more deaths than births.

• Population changes are influenced by three main factors: Fertility, Mortality, and Migration.

Fertility

• In addition to birth rate, fertility can be gauged through the fertility rate.
• Fertility is influenced by various factors, which can be classified into social, economic, or political categories.

Mortality Factors

Factors affecting death rates include:

• Quality of healthcare
• Access to healthcare
• Natural disasters like famine and drought
• Diseases such as HIV/AIDS
• War and conflict

Case Study: Niger

• In 1960, the population of Niger stood at 3.3 million
• By 2021, the population had surged to almost 25 million
• Niger experienced a population growth rate of 3.8%
• This growth is attributed to a high birth rate and a notable decline in the mortality rate

Factors Contributing to High Birth Rates

Niger's elevated birth and fertility rates can be explained by various factors:

• The average age of marriage is 15.7 years, allowing for more childbearing years for women
• Low levels of education for women, with only 4 out of 10 girls completing primary school
• Emphasis on large families as a societal norm
• Low usage of modern contraception methods, with only 12% of women using them

• The death rate in Niger has shown a decline, dropping from 29 per 1000 in 1960 to 8 per 1000 in 2020.
• This decline can be attributed to several factors:
  • Increased urbanization, facilitating access to healthcare and food services.
  • Improved food and clean water supply.
  • Enhanced access to healthcare facilities.
  • Government initiatives to enhance farming practices, leading to increased food availability.
  • Provision of free healthcare to pregnant women, improving survival rates for both mothers and infants.

Impacts of Urbanization

• Presence of a highly dependent population, primarily individuals under 15 years old.
• Escalating pressure on educational institutions and healthcare services.
• A younger demographic can potentially boost economic growth, although disparities exist in job opportunities and wealth distribution.
• Rise in rural-urban migration for employment opportunities, leading to the emergence of unauthorized settlements on urban peripheries.
• Challenges like food shortages affecting approximately 2.5 million individuals due to food insecurity.

Reducing Population Growth

Niger took steps in 2014 to decrease fertility rates by implementing the following measures:

• Abolishing child marriage, which refers to marriage under the age of 18
• Enhancing access to education
• Improving availability of health services, contraception, and family planning guidance
• Granting girls and women autonomy to access contraception without parental or spousal consent
• Allowing married or pregnant girls to attend school to support their education

Case Study: Japan

• In 2010, Japan recorded a population of 128.1 million people, which decreased to 125.8 million by 2020. This shift indicates a population change rate of -0.3%, a result of factors such as a low birth rate and an aging population.

Low Birth Rate

• Japan's fertility rate stands at 1.36 births per woman, notably below the replacement rate of 2.1. The country's birth rate is 7.1 per 1000 individuals.
• Several factors contribute to Japan's low birth rate, including:
  • Increasing numbers of women prioritizing careers and delaying childbirth.
  • Challenges in affording personal residences, leading to 70% of unmarried individuals residing with their parents.
  • A decline in marriage rates and a rise in the average age of marriage (29.5 years for women, 31 years for men).
  • Economic uncertainties, as job security is not guaranteed.
  • The high cost of childcare, making raising children financially burdensome.

Ageing Population

• The death rate in Japan has risen from 6 per 1000 in 1982 to 11 per 1000 in 2020.
• Life expectancy has increased significantly, reaching an average of 84.36 years.
• The aging population, not deteriorating healthcare or living conditions, is the primary driver of the increased death rate.
• Over a third of the population is over 60 years old, and more than 12% are over 75.
• Elderly individuals are more susceptible to illness and mortality, resulting in a higher death proportion with an older population.

Impacts

• As the population ages, there is a significant impact on various aspects of society.
• An increase in the number of elderly individuals results in a shortage of workers.
• This shortage leads to several consequences, such as a decline in innovations and the closure of essential services.
• Furthermore, the burden on the healthcare system and pension funds intensifies due to the aging population.
• Predictions indicate a shortage of 380,000 workers in elderly care by 2025.
• Consequently, taxes may need to be raised to support healthcare and pension obligations.
• Schools and childcare facilities face closure as the number of children decreases, resulting in job losses.
• Each year, approximately 450 schools shut down due to declining student numbers.
• Economic growth stagnates due to the lack of workers and business closures, impacting the overall standard of living.

Solutions

• Development of robots to assist in elderly care, exemplified by the utilization at the Shin-tomi nursing home situated in Tokyo.
• Revision of immigration laws in 2018 to entice foreign workers and alleviate the labor shortage, with a target of attracting 340,000 new workers.
• Initiatives to Boost Birth Rate:
  • The Angel Plan of 1994, a five-year strategy, aimed at fostering an increase in the birth rate.
  • The subsequent New Angel Plan in 1999 and the Plus One Policy in 2009 were devised to stimulate childbearing by:
    • Enhancing work environments to accommodate family responsibilities.
    • Improving childcare services.
    • Enhancing maternal and child health services.
    • Providing better housing for families.
    • Upgrading educational facilities.
• Current Approach - Plus One Proposal:
  • Introducing the Plus One Proposal, the latest policy endeavor, focusing on enhancing 'parent-friendly' workplaces and constructing 50,000 new daycare facilities.