Page 1
4.83
EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECTS
LEARNING OUTCOMES
UNIT IV: EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS
ECONOMIC EFFECTS
At the end of this unit, you will be able to:
? Define exchange rate and describe how it is determined
? Appraise different types of exchange rate regimes
? Describe the functioning of the foreign exchange market
? Explain changes in exchange rates and their impact on the
real economy
4.1 INTRODUCTION
Each day we get fascinating news about currency which fuel our curiosity, such as
Rupee gains 12 paise against US dollar, Dollar Spot/Forward Rates plummet,
Rupee down, Euro holds steady, Pound strengthens etc. Ever wondered what
UNIT OVERVIEW
International
Trade
Exchange Rate
and its
Economic
Effects
The Exchange
Rate Regimes
Changes in
Exchange Rates
Devaluation Vs
Depreciation
Page 2
4.83
EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECTS
LEARNING OUTCOMES
UNIT IV: EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS
ECONOMIC EFFECTS
At the end of this unit, you will be able to:
? Define exchange rate and describe how it is determined
? Appraise different types of exchange rate regimes
? Describe the functioning of the foreign exchange market
? Explain changes in exchange rates and their impact on the
real economy
4.1 INTRODUCTION
Each day we get fascinating news about currency which fuel our curiosity, such as
Rupee gains 12 paise against US dollar, Dollar Spot/Forward Rates plummet,
Rupee down, Euro holds steady, Pound strengthens etc. Ever wondered what
UNIT OVERVIEW
International
Trade
Exchange Rate
and its
Economic
Effects
The Exchange
Rate Regimes
Changes in
Exchange Rates
Devaluation Vs
Depreciation
4.84 ECONOMICS FOR FINANCE
these jargons mean? We shall try to understand a few fundamentals related to
currency transactions in this unit.
In chapter 3, we examined the demand for and supply of domestic currency. It is
not domestic currency alone that we need. Households, businesses and
governments in India, for example, buy different types of goods and services
produced in other countries. Similarly, residents of the rest of the world buy
goods and services from residents in India. Foreign investors, businesses, and
governments invest in our country, just as our nationals invest in other countries.
In the same way, lending, and borrowing also take place internationally. These
and similar other transactions give rise to an international dimension of
money, which involves exchange of one currency for another. Obviously, this
entails market transactions involving determination of price of one currency in
terms of another.
4.2 THE EXCHANGE RATE
The term ‘Foreign Exchange’ refers to money denominated in a currency other
than the domestic currency. Similar to any other commodity, foreign exchange
has a price. The exchange rate, also known as a foreign exchange (FX) rate, is the
price of one currency expressed in terms of units of another currency and
represents the number of units of one currency that exchanges for a unit of
another. In other words, exchange rate is the rate at which the currency of one
country is exchanged for the currency of another country. It is the minimum
number of units of one country’s currency required to purchase one unit of the
other country’s currency. It is important to note that the value of a currency is
relative as it is always given in terms of another currency.
There are two ways to express nominal exchange rate between two currencies
(e.g. the US $ and Indian Rupee) namely direct quote and indirect quote. The
direct form of quotation is also called European Currency Quotation whereas
indirect form is known as American Currency Quotation. A direct quote is the
number of units of a local currency exchangeable for one unit of a foreign
currency. The price of 1 dollar may be quoted in terms of how much rupees it
takes to buy one dollar. For example, `76/US$ means that an amount of ` 76 is
needed to buy one US dollar or `76 will be received while selling one US dollar.
An indirect quote is the number of units of a foreign currency exchangeable for
one unit of local currency; for example: $ 0.0151 per rupee. A quotation in direct
form can easily be converted into a quotation in indirect form and vice-versa. This
is done by taking the reciprocal of the given rate.
Page 3
4.83
EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECTS
LEARNING OUTCOMES
UNIT IV: EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS
ECONOMIC EFFECTS
At the end of this unit, you will be able to:
? Define exchange rate and describe how it is determined
? Appraise different types of exchange rate regimes
? Describe the functioning of the foreign exchange market
? Explain changes in exchange rates and their impact on the
real economy
4.1 INTRODUCTION
Each day we get fascinating news about currency which fuel our curiosity, such as
Rupee gains 12 paise against US dollar, Dollar Spot/Forward Rates plummet,
Rupee down, Euro holds steady, Pound strengthens etc. Ever wondered what
UNIT OVERVIEW
International
Trade
Exchange Rate
and its
Economic
Effects
The Exchange
Rate Regimes
Changes in
Exchange Rates
Devaluation Vs
Depreciation
4.84 ECONOMICS FOR FINANCE
these jargons mean? We shall try to understand a few fundamentals related to
currency transactions in this unit.
In chapter 3, we examined the demand for and supply of domestic currency. It is
not domestic currency alone that we need. Households, businesses and
governments in India, for example, buy different types of goods and services
produced in other countries. Similarly, residents of the rest of the world buy
goods and services from residents in India. Foreign investors, businesses, and
governments invest in our country, just as our nationals invest in other countries.
In the same way, lending, and borrowing also take place internationally. These
and similar other transactions give rise to an international dimension of
money, which involves exchange of one currency for another. Obviously, this
entails market transactions involving determination of price of one currency in
terms of another.
4.2 THE EXCHANGE RATE
The term ‘Foreign Exchange’ refers to money denominated in a currency other
than the domestic currency. Similar to any other commodity, foreign exchange
has a price. The exchange rate, also known as a foreign exchange (FX) rate, is the
price of one currency expressed in terms of units of another currency and
represents the number of units of one currency that exchanges for a unit of
another. In other words, exchange rate is the rate at which the currency of one
country is exchanged for the currency of another country. It is the minimum
number of units of one country’s currency required to purchase one unit of the
other country’s currency. It is important to note that the value of a currency is
relative as it is always given in terms of another currency.
There are two ways to express nominal exchange rate between two currencies
(e.g. the US $ and Indian Rupee) namely direct quote and indirect quote. The
direct form of quotation is also called European Currency Quotation whereas
indirect form is known as American Currency Quotation. A direct quote is the
number of units of a local currency exchangeable for one unit of a foreign
currency. The price of 1 dollar may be quoted in terms of how much rupees it
takes to buy one dollar. For example, `76/US$ means that an amount of ` 76 is
needed to buy one US dollar or `76 will be received while selling one US dollar.
An indirect quote is the number of units of a foreign currency exchangeable for
one unit of local currency; for example: $ 0.0151 per rupee. A quotation in direct
form can easily be converted into a quotation in indirect form and vice-versa. This
is done by taking the reciprocal of the given rate.
4.85
EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECTS
An exchange rate has two currency components; a ‘base currency’ and a ‘counter
currency’. In a direct quotation, the foreign currency is the base currency and the
domestic currency is the counter currency. In an indirect quotation, the domestic
currency is the base currency and the foreign currency is the counter currency. As
the US dollar is the dominant currency in global foreign exchange markets, the
general convention is to apply direct quotes that have the US dollar as the base
currency and other currencies as the counter currency.
There may be two pairs of currencies with one currency being common between
the two pairs. For instance, exchange rates may be given between a pair, X and Y
and another pair, X and Z. The rate between Y and Z is derived from the given
rates of the two pairs (X and Y, and, X and Z) and is called ‘cross rate’. When there
is no difference between the buying and the selling rate, the rate is said to be
‘unique’ or ‘unified’. But it is rarely seen in practice. There are generally two rates
– selling rate and buying rate – for any currency when one goes to exchange it in
the market. Selling rate is generally higher than the buying rate for a currency.
This is the commission of the money exchanger (dealer) to run its operations.
4.3 THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES
An exchange rate regime is the system by which a country manages its currency
with respect to foreign currencies. It refers to the method by which the value of
the domestic currency in terms of foreign currencies is determined. There are two
major types of exchange rate regimes at the extreme ends; namely:
(i) floating exchange rate regime (also called a flexible exchange rate), and
(ii) fixed exchange rate regime
Under floating exchange rate regime, the equilibrium value of the exchange rate
of a country’s currency is market-determined i.e. the demand for and supply of
currency relative to other currencies determine the exchange rate. There is no
predetermined target rate and the exchange rates are likely to change at every
moment in time depending on the changing demand for and supply of currency
in the market. There is no interference on the part of the government or the
central bank of the country in the determination of exchange rate. Any
intervention by the central banks in the foreign exchange market (through
purchases or sales of foreign currency in exchange for local currency) is intended
for only moderating the rate of change and preventing undue fluctuations in the
exchange rate, rather than for establishing a particular level for it (for example:
India).Nevertheless, in a few countries (for example, New Zealand, Sweden, the
Page 4
4.83
EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECTS
LEARNING OUTCOMES
UNIT IV: EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS
ECONOMIC EFFECTS
At the end of this unit, you will be able to:
? Define exchange rate and describe how it is determined
? Appraise different types of exchange rate regimes
? Describe the functioning of the foreign exchange market
? Explain changes in exchange rates and their impact on the
real economy
4.1 INTRODUCTION
Each day we get fascinating news about currency which fuel our curiosity, such as
Rupee gains 12 paise against US dollar, Dollar Spot/Forward Rates plummet,
Rupee down, Euro holds steady, Pound strengthens etc. Ever wondered what
UNIT OVERVIEW
International
Trade
Exchange Rate
and its
Economic
Effects
The Exchange
Rate Regimes
Changes in
Exchange Rates
Devaluation Vs
Depreciation
4.84 ECONOMICS FOR FINANCE
these jargons mean? We shall try to understand a few fundamentals related to
currency transactions in this unit.
In chapter 3, we examined the demand for and supply of domestic currency. It is
not domestic currency alone that we need. Households, businesses and
governments in India, for example, buy different types of goods and services
produced in other countries. Similarly, residents of the rest of the world buy
goods and services from residents in India. Foreign investors, businesses, and
governments invest in our country, just as our nationals invest in other countries.
In the same way, lending, and borrowing also take place internationally. These
and similar other transactions give rise to an international dimension of
money, which involves exchange of one currency for another. Obviously, this
entails market transactions involving determination of price of one currency in
terms of another.
4.2 THE EXCHANGE RATE
The term ‘Foreign Exchange’ refers to money denominated in a currency other
than the domestic currency. Similar to any other commodity, foreign exchange
has a price. The exchange rate, also known as a foreign exchange (FX) rate, is the
price of one currency expressed in terms of units of another currency and
represents the number of units of one currency that exchanges for a unit of
another. In other words, exchange rate is the rate at which the currency of one
country is exchanged for the currency of another country. It is the minimum
number of units of one country’s currency required to purchase one unit of the
other country’s currency. It is important to note that the value of a currency is
relative as it is always given in terms of another currency.
There are two ways to express nominal exchange rate between two currencies
(e.g. the US $ and Indian Rupee) namely direct quote and indirect quote. The
direct form of quotation is also called European Currency Quotation whereas
indirect form is known as American Currency Quotation. A direct quote is the
number of units of a local currency exchangeable for one unit of a foreign
currency. The price of 1 dollar may be quoted in terms of how much rupees it
takes to buy one dollar. For example, `76/US$ means that an amount of ` 76 is
needed to buy one US dollar or `76 will be received while selling one US dollar.
An indirect quote is the number of units of a foreign currency exchangeable for
one unit of local currency; for example: $ 0.0151 per rupee. A quotation in direct
form can easily be converted into a quotation in indirect form and vice-versa. This
is done by taking the reciprocal of the given rate.
4.85
EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECTS
An exchange rate has two currency components; a ‘base currency’ and a ‘counter
currency’. In a direct quotation, the foreign currency is the base currency and the
domestic currency is the counter currency. In an indirect quotation, the domestic
currency is the base currency and the foreign currency is the counter currency. As
the US dollar is the dominant currency in global foreign exchange markets, the
general convention is to apply direct quotes that have the US dollar as the base
currency and other currencies as the counter currency.
There may be two pairs of currencies with one currency being common between
the two pairs. For instance, exchange rates may be given between a pair, X and Y
and another pair, X and Z. The rate between Y and Z is derived from the given
rates of the two pairs (X and Y, and, X and Z) and is called ‘cross rate’. When there
is no difference between the buying and the selling rate, the rate is said to be
‘unique’ or ‘unified’. But it is rarely seen in practice. There are generally two rates
– selling rate and buying rate – for any currency when one goes to exchange it in
the market. Selling rate is generally higher than the buying rate for a currency.
This is the commission of the money exchanger (dealer) to run its operations.
4.3 THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES
An exchange rate regime is the system by which a country manages its currency
with respect to foreign currencies. It refers to the method by which the value of
the domestic currency in terms of foreign currencies is determined. There are two
major types of exchange rate regimes at the extreme ends; namely:
(i) floating exchange rate regime (also called a flexible exchange rate), and
(ii) fixed exchange rate regime
Under floating exchange rate regime, the equilibrium value of the exchange rate
of a country’s currency is market-determined i.e. the demand for and supply of
currency relative to other currencies determine the exchange rate. There is no
predetermined target rate and the exchange rates are likely to change at every
moment in time depending on the changing demand for and supply of currency
in the market. There is no interference on the part of the government or the
central bank of the country in the determination of exchange rate. Any
intervention by the central banks in the foreign exchange market (through
purchases or sales of foreign currency in exchange for local currency) is intended
for only moderating the rate of change and preventing undue fluctuations in the
exchange rate, rather than for establishing a particular level for it (for example:
India).Nevertheless, in a few countries (for example, New Zealand, Sweden, the
4.86 ECONOMICS FOR FINANCE
United States), the central banks almost never interfere to administer the
exchange rates. Nearly all advanced economies follow floating exchange rate
regimes. Some large emerging market economies also follow the system.
A fixed exchange rate, also referred to as pegged exchanged rate, is an exchange
rate regime under which a country’s Central Bank and/ or government announces
or decrees what its currency will be worth in terms of either another country’s
currency or a basket of currencies or another measure of value, such as gold. For
example: a certain amount of rupees per dollar. (When a government intervenes
in the foreign exchange market so that the exchange rate of its currency is
different from what the market forces of demand and supply would have decided,
it is said to have established a “peg” for its currency). In order to sustain a fixed
exchange rate, it is not enough that a country pronounces a fixed parity: it must
also make concentrated efforts to defend that parity by being willing to buy (or
sell) foreign reserves whenever the market demand for foreign currency is lesser
(or greater) than the supply of foreign currency. In other words, in order to
maintain the exchange rate at the predetermined level, the central bank
intervenes in the foreign exchange market.
We are often misled to think that it is common for countries to adopt the flexible
exchange rate system. In the real world, there is a spectrum of ‘intermediate
exchange rate regimes’ which are either inflexible or have varying degrees of
flexibility that lie in between these two extremes (fixed and flexible).For example,
a central bank can implement soft peg and hard peg policies. A soft peg refers to
an exchange rate policy under which the exchange rate is generally determined
by the market, but in case the exchange rate tends to be move speedily in one
direction, the central bank will intervene in the market. With a hard peg exchange
rate policy, the central bank sets a fixed and unchanging value for the exchange
rate. Both soft peg and hard peg policy require that the central bank intervenes in
the foreign exchange market. The tables 4.4.1 and 4.4.2 show respectively, the
IMF classifications and definitions of prevalent exchange rate systems and the
latest available data (as on April 30, 2018) on the distribution of the 189 IMF
members based on their exchange rate regimes.
Table No: 4.4.1
IMF Classifications and Definitions of Exchange Rate Regimes
Exchange Rate Regimes Description
Exchange arrangements with no Currency of another country
circulates as sole legal tender or
Page 5
4.83
EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECTS
LEARNING OUTCOMES
UNIT IV: EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS
ECONOMIC EFFECTS
At the end of this unit, you will be able to:
? Define exchange rate and describe how it is determined
? Appraise different types of exchange rate regimes
? Describe the functioning of the foreign exchange market
? Explain changes in exchange rates and their impact on the
real economy
4.1 INTRODUCTION
Each day we get fascinating news about currency which fuel our curiosity, such as
Rupee gains 12 paise against US dollar, Dollar Spot/Forward Rates plummet,
Rupee down, Euro holds steady, Pound strengthens etc. Ever wondered what
UNIT OVERVIEW
International
Trade
Exchange Rate
and its
Economic
Effects
The Exchange
Rate Regimes
Changes in
Exchange Rates
Devaluation Vs
Depreciation
4.84 ECONOMICS FOR FINANCE
these jargons mean? We shall try to understand a few fundamentals related to
currency transactions in this unit.
In chapter 3, we examined the demand for and supply of domestic currency. It is
not domestic currency alone that we need. Households, businesses and
governments in India, for example, buy different types of goods and services
produced in other countries. Similarly, residents of the rest of the world buy
goods and services from residents in India. Foreign investors, businesses, and
governments invest in our country, just as our nationals invest in other countries.
In the same way, lending, and borrowing also take place internationally. These
and similar other transactions give rise to an international dimension of
money, which involves exchange of one currency for another. Obviously, this
entails market transactions involving determination of price of one currency in
terms of another.
4.2 THE EXCHANGE RATE
The term ‘Foreign Exchange’ refers to money denominated in a currency other
than the domestic currency. Similar to any other commodity, foreign exchange
has a price. The exchange rate, also known as a foreign exchange (FX) rate, is the
price of one currency expressed in terms of units of another currency and
represents the number of units of one currency that exchanges for a unit of
another. In other words, exchange rate is the rate at which the currency of one
country is exchanged for the currency of another country. It is the minimum
number of units of one country’s currency required to purchase one unit of the
other country’s currency. It is important to note that the value of a currency is
relative as it is always given in terms of another currency.
There are two ways to express nominal exchange rate between two currencies
(e.g. the US $ and Indian Rupee) namely direct quote and indirect quote. The
direct form of quotation is also called European Currency Quotation whereas
indirect form is known as American Currency Quotation. A direct quote is the
number of units of a local currency exchangeable for one unit of a foreign
currency. The price of 1 dollar may be quoted in terms of how much rupees it
takes to buy one dollar. For example, `76/US$ means that an amount of ` 76 is
needed to buy one US dollar or `76 will be received while selling one US dollar.
An indirect quote is the number of units of a foreign currency exchangeable for
one unit of local currency; for example: $ 0.0151 per rupee. A quotation in direct
form can easily be converted into a quotation in indirect form and vice-versa. This
is done by taking the reciprocal of the given rate.
4.85
EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECTS
An exchange rate has two currency components; a ‘base currency’ and a ‘counter
currency’. In a direct quotation, the foreign currency is the base currency and the
domestic currency is the counter currency. In an indirect quotation, the domestic
currency is the base currency and the foreign currency is the counter currency. As
the US dollar is the dominant currency in global foreign exchange markets, the
general convention is to apply direct quotes that have the US dollar as the base
currency and other currencies as the counter currency.
There may be two pairs of currencies with one currency being common between
the two pairs. For instance, exchange rates may be given between a pair, X and Y
and another pair, X and Z. The rate between Y and Z is derived from the given
rates of the two pairs (X and Y, and, X and Z) and is called ‘cross rate’. When there
is no difference between the buying and the selling rate, the rate is said to be
‘unique’ or ‘unified’. But it is rarely seen in practice. There are generally two rates
– selling rate and buying rate – for any currency when one goes to exchange it in
the market. Selling rate is generally higher than the buying rate for a currency.
This is the commission of the money exchanger (dealer) to run its operations.
4.3 THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES
An exchange rate regime is the system by which a country manages its currency
with respect to foreign currencies. It refers to the method by which the value of
the domestic currency in terms of foreign currencies is determined. There are two
major types of exchange rate regimes at the extreme ends; namely:
(i) floating exchange rate regime (also called a flexible exchange rate), and
(ii) fixed exchange rate regime
Under floating exchange rate regime, the equilibrium value of the exchange rate
of a country’s currency is market-determined i.e. the demand for and supply of
currency relative to other currencies determine the exchange rate. There is no
predetermined target rate and the exchange rates are likely to change at every
moment in time depending on the changing demand for and supply of currency
in the market. There is no interference on the part of the government or the
central bank of the country in the determination of exchange rate. Any
intervention by the central banks in the foreign exchange market (through
purchases or sales of foreign currency in exchange for local currency) is intended
for only moderating the rate of change and preventing undue fluctuations in the
exchange rate, rather than for establishing a particular level for it (for example:
India).Nevertheless, in a few countries (for example, New Zealand, Sweden, the
4.86 ECONOMICS FOR FINANCE
United States), the central banks almost never interfere to administer the
exchange rates. Nearly all advanced economies follow floating exchange rate
regimes. Some large emerging market economies also follow the system.
A fixed exchange rate, also referred to as pegged exchanged rate, is an exchange
rate regime under which a country’s Central Bank and/ or government announces
or decrees what its currency will be worth in terms of either another country’s
currency or a basket of currencies or another measure of value, such as gold. For
example: a certain amount of rupees per dollar. (When a government intervenes
in the foreign exchange market so that the exchange rate of its currency is
different from what the market forces of demand and supply would have decided,
it is said to have established a “peg” for its currency). In order to sustain a fixed
exchange rate, it is not enough that a country pronounces a fixed parity: it must
also make concentrated efforts to defend that parity by being willing to buy (or
sell) foreign reserves whenever the market demand for foreign currency is lesser
(or greater) than the supply of foreign currency. In other words, in order to
maintain the exchange rate at the predetermined level, the central bank
intervenes in the foreign exchange market.
We are often misled to think that it is common for countries to adopt the flexible
exchange rate system. In the real world, there is a spectrum of ‘intermediate
exchange rate regimes’ which are either inflexible or have varying degrees of
flexibility that lie in between these two extremes (fixed and flexible).For example,
a central bank can implement soft peg and hard peg policies. A soft peg refers to
an exchange rate policy under which the exchange rate is generally determined
by the market, but in case the exchange rate tends to be move speedily in one
direction, the central bank will intervene in the market. With a hard peg exchange
rate policy, the central bank sets a fixed and unchanging value for the exchange
rate. Both soft peg and hard peg policy require that the central bank intervenes in
the foreign exchange market. The tables 4.4.1 and 4.4.2 show respectively, the
IMF classifications and definitions of prevalent exchange rate systems and the
latest available data (as on April 30, 2018) on the distribution of the 189 IMF
members based on their exchange rate regimes.
Table No: 4.4.1
IMF Classifications and Definitions of Exchange Rate Regimes
Exchange Rate Regimes Description
Exchange arrangements with no Currency of another country
circulates as sole legal tender or
4.87
EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS ECONOMIC EFFECTS
separate legal tender (13 countries)
E.g. Kosovo –Euro
Ecuador, El Salvador - US Dollar
member belongs to a monetary or
currency union in which same legal
tender is shared by members of the
union.
Currency Board Arrangements
(11 Countries)
Hong Kong, Dominica, Grenada etc.-
Dollar
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria-Euro
Monetary regime based on implicit
national commitment to exchange
domestic currency for a specified
foreign currency at a fixed exchange
rate.
Other conventional fixed peg
arrangement (43 Countries)
E.g. Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United
Arab
Emirates etc. to -US Dollar
Mali, Niger, Senegal, Cameroon etc. -
Euro
Country pegs its currency (formal or
de facto) at a fixed rate to a major
currency or a basket of currencies
where exchange rate fluctuates within
a narrow margin or at most ± 1%
around central rate.
Pegged exchange rates within
horizontal bands (1Country) Tonga
Value of the currency is maintained
within margins of fluctuation around
a formal or de facto fixed peg that are
wider than ± 1% around central rate.
Crawling Peg (3 countries)
Honduras, Nicaragua, Botswana
Currency is adjusted periodically in
small amounts at a fixed,
preannounced rate in response to
changes in certain quantitative
indicators.
Crawl –like arrangement (15 Countries)
E.g. Iran, Afghanistan, Costa Rica
Currency is maintained within certain
fluctuation margins say (±1-2%)
around a central rate that is adjusted
periodically
Other Managed Arrangement (13
countries)
E.g. Cambodia, Liberia, Zimbabwe
Floating (35 Countries)
E.g.India, Philippines, New Zealand,
Malaysia
Monetary authority influences the
movements of the exchange rate
through intervention in foreign
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