Page 1
Food Security in India:
Taking a Leaf out of the Dragon’s Rice Fields
Ashok Gulati & Ganga Shreedhar
International Food Policy Research Institute, New Delhi Office
Presentation to:
General Council of National Food Security Mission
Chaired by the Hon. Minister of Agriculture
Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi
23 June 2010
Page 2
Food Security in India:
Taking a Leaf out of the Dragon’s Rice Fields
Ashok Gulati & Ganga Shreedhar
International Food Policy Research Institute, New Delhi Office
Presentation to:
General Council of National Food Security Mission
Chaired by the Hon. Minister of Agriculture
Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi
23 June 2010
Food Security Challenges in the land of the Dragon &
the Elephant
Dragon Elephant
Trigger 1958-61: Great Leap Forward,
30 million starvation deaths
1964-65: 2 serial droughts,
PL480 & political strings
Policy Response Invst in Ag research (esp.
hybrid rice) & agri-reforms
Seed imports, Green Revolution
(mid-1960s-1980s), White
Revolution (1970s-90s)
Production Impact (Paddy,
wheat & maize) (NBS, 2010; MoA,
2010)
246.7 mt (1978) to 470 mt
(2008)
116.7 mt (1977/78) to 249.6
mt (2008/09)
Poverty Reduction Impact
(WB, 2010)
30% (1978) to 15% (1984) 54.9% (1973/74) to 38.9%
(1987/88)
Current Challenges (share of world)
Population (billions) 2008
(WB, 2010) 2030
1.3 (20%)
1.5
1.1 (17.5%)
1.6
Arable Land
Agricultural Land(FAOSTAT, 2010; 2007)
10%
11.2%
11.2%
3.6%
Renewable Internal Freshwater
Resources flow (FAOSTAT, 2010)
6.5% 2.9%
Poverty as % of Global poverty
(<1.25 US$/day in 2004/05; Chen & Ravallion 2008)
15% 33%
Undernourished (in 2004/06; FAO, 2010)
14.6% 28.8%
Page 3
Food Security in India:
Taking a Leaf out of the Dragon’s Rice Fields
Ashok Gulati & Ganga Shreedhar
International Food Policy Research Institute, New Delhi Office
Presentation to:
General Council of National Food Security Mission
Chaired by the Hon. Minister of Agriculture
Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi
23 June 2010
Food Security Challenges in the land of the Dragon &
the Elephant
Dragon Elephant
Trigger 1958-61: Great Leap Forward,
30 million starvation deaths
1964-65: 2 serial droughts,
PL480 & political strings
Policy Response Invst in Ag research (esp.
hybrid rice) & agri-reforms
Seed imports, Green Revolution
(mid-1960s-1980s), White
Revolution (1970s-90s)
Production Impact (Paddy,
wheat & maize) (NBS, 2010; MoA,
2010)
246.7 mt (1978) to 470 mt
(2008)
116.7 mt (1977/78) to 249.6
mt (2008/09)
Poverty Reduction Impact
(WB, 2010)
30% (1978) to 15% (1984) 54.9% (1973/74) to 38.9%
(1987/88)
Current Challenges (share of world)
Population (billions) 2008
(WB, 2010) 2030
1.3 (20%)
1.5
1.1 (17.5%)
1.6
Arable Land
Agricultural Land(FAOSTAT, 2010; 2007)
10%
11.2%
11.2%
3.6%
Renewable Internal Freshwater
Resources flow (FAOSTAT, 2010)
6.5% 2.9%
Poverty as % of Global poverty
(<1.25 US$/day in 2004/05; Chen & Ravallion 2008)
15% 33%
Undernourished (in 2004/06; FAO, 2010)
14.6% 28.8%
Paddy Production & Area Performance:
China, India
Source: For India: MoA, 2010 (Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2009. For China: National Bureau of Statistics, 2010 (China Statistical Yearbook, 2009)
Pdn=mt, Area=mha, Yield= t/ha
2008/09 2008
I-Area I-Pdn I-Yield C-Area C-P C-Yield
45.4 148.7 3.3 29.2 191.9 6.6
Page 4
Food Security in India:
Taking a Leaf out of the Dragon’s Rice Fields
Ashok Gulati & Ganga Shreedhar
International Food Policy Research Institute, New Delhi Office
Presentation to:
General Council of National Food Security Mission
Chaired by the Hon. Minister of Agriculture
Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi
23 June 2010
Food Security Challenges in the land of the Dragon &
the Elephant
Dragon Elephant
Trigger 1958-61: Great Leap Forward,
30 million starvation deaths
1964-65: 2 serial droughts,
PL480 & political strings
Policy Response Invst in Ag research (esp.
hybrid rice) & agri-reforms
Seed imports, Green Revolution
(mid-1960s-1980s), White
Revolution (1970s-90s)
Production Impact (Paddy,
wheat & maize) (NBS, 2010; MoA,
2010)
246.7 mt (1978) to 470 mt
(2008)
116.7 mt (1977/78) to 249.6
mt (2008/09)
Poverty Reduction Impact
(WB, 2010)
30% (1978) to 15% (1984) 54.9% (1973/74) to 38.9%
(1987/88)
Current Challenges (share of world)
Population (billions) 2008
(WB, 2010) 2030
1.3 (20%)
1.5
1.1 (17.5%)
1.6
Arable Land
Agricultural Land(FAOSTAT, 2010; 2007)
10%
11.2%
11.2%
3.6%
Renewable Internal Freshwater
Resources flow (FAOSTAT, 2010)
6.5% 2.9%
Poverty as % of Global poverty
(<1.25 US$/day in 2004/05; Chen & Ravallion 2008)
15% 33%
Undernourished (in 2004/06; FAO, 2010)
14.6% 28.8%
Paddy Production & Area Performance:
China, India
Source: For India: MoA, 2010 (Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2009. For China: National Bureau of Statistics, 2010 (China Statistical Yearbook, 2009)
Pdn=mt, Area=mha, Yield= t/ha
2008/09 2008
I-Area I-Pdn I-Yield C-Area C-P C-Yield
45.4 148.7 3.3 29.2 191.9 6.6
Wheat Production & Area Performance:
China, India
Source: For India: MoA, 2010 (Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2009. For China: National Bureau of Statistics, 2010 (China Statistical Yearbook, 2009)
Pdn=mt, Area=mha, Yield= t/ha
2008/09 2008
I-Area I-Pdn I-Yield C-Area C-P C-Yield
27.9 80.6 2.9 23.6 112.5 4.8
Page 5
Food Security in India:
Taking a Leaf out of the Dragon’s Rice Fields
Ashok Gulati & Ganga Shreedhar
International Food Policy Research Institute, New Delhi Office
Presentation to:
General Council of National Food Security Mission
Chaired by the Hon. Minister of Agriculture
Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi
23 June 2010
Food Security Challenges in the land of the Dragon &
the Elephant
Dragon Elephant
Trigger 1958-61: Great Leap Forward,
30 million starvation deaths
1964-65: 2 serial droughts,
PL480 & political strings
Policy Response Invst in Ag research (esp.
hybrid rice) & agri-reforms
Seed imports, Green Revolution
(mid-1960s-1980s), White
Revolution (1970s-90s)
Production Impact (Paddy,
wheat & maize) (NBS, 2010; MoA,
2010)
246.7 mt (1978) to 470 mt
(2008)
116.7 mt (1977/78) to 249.6
mt (2008/09)
Poverty Reduction Impact
(WB, 2010)
30% (1978) to 15% (1984) 54.9% (1973/74) to 38.9%
(1987/88)
Current Challenges (share of world)
Population (billions) 2008
(WB, 2010) 2030
1.3 (20%)
1.5
1.1 (17.5%)
1.6
Arable Land
Agricultural Land(FAOSTAT, 2010; 2007)
10%
11.2%
11.2%
3.6%
Renewable Internal Freshwater
Resources flow (FAOSTAT, 2010)
6.5% 2.9%
Poverty as % of Global poverty
(<1.25 US$/day in 2004/05; Chen & Ravallion 2008)
15% 33%
Undernourished (in 2004/06; FAO, 2010)
14.6% 28.8%
Paddy Production & Area Performance:
China, India
Source: For India: MoA, 2010 (Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2009. For China: National Bureau of Statistics, 2010 (China Statistical Yearbook, 2009)
Pdn=mt, Area=mha, Yield= t/ha
2008/09 2008
I-Area I-Pdn I-Yield C-Area C-P C-Yield
45.4 148.7 3.3 29.2 191.9 6.6
Wheat Production & Area Performance:
China, India
Source: For India: MoA, 2010 (Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2009. For China: National Bureau of Statistics, 2010 (China Statistical Yearbook, 2009)
Pdn=mt, Area=mha, Yield= t/ha
2008/09 2008
I-Area I-Pdn I-Yield C-Area C-P C-Yield
27.9 80.6 2.9 23.6 112.5 4.8
Maize/Corn Production & Area Performance:
China, India
Source: For India: MoA, 2010 (Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2009. For China: National Bureau of Statistics, 2010 (China Statistical Yearbook, 2009)
Pdn=mt, Area=mha, Yield= t/ha
2008/09 2008
I-Area I-Pdn I-Yield C-Area C-P C-Yield
8.2 19.3 2.4 29.9 165.9 5.6
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