Q1: Computer Crimes Detective: A suspect monitored by our team was witnessed logging into Website X. Soon thereafter, Website X crashed due to a Trojan virus attack, causing damages estimated at millions of dollars. The same suspect also logged into Website Y. An hour after the suspect signed out of Website Y, it was attacked by the same virus and, subsequently, crashed. This strongly suggests that the suspect is either a hacker who is using this virus to shut websites down, or an unwitting user infected with the virus.
A major flaw in the detective's argument above is that
(a) the detective overlooks the fact that during the second attack, the suspect had already been disconnected
(b) the detective ignores the possibility that two different people could have used the same computer
(c) the detective confuses the person who wrote the virus with the person who deployed it
(d) the detective connects the cases of Websites X and Y and supposes that a pattern exists
(e) the detective ignores the possibility that other people may have also been logged into the websites the same time that the suspect was
Ans: (e)
This is an Argument Flaw question. You are required to locate the inherent flaw in the argument's conclusion or in its underlying assumption. In this argument, sentences 1-4 are premises, citing facts. Sentence 5 is the conclusion since it incorporates the detective's theory about the case:
Premise A: the suspect logged into Website X
+
Premise B: Website X crashed because of a virus
+
Premise C: the suspect logged into Website Y
+
Premise D: an hour after the suspect signed out of Y, it too crashed because of the same virus
≠
Conclusion: this particular suspect either purposely or accidentally loaded the virus into the sites
The detective has her eye on the suspect since the suspect logged into both websites around the time of the attacks. However, the detective's conclusion is that this particular suspect is the one who transferred the virus whereas this could have been done by anyone who was logged into the websites at the time, and is either a hacker or an unwitting infected user. The detective arrives at this conclusion based only on the fact that the suspect's visits occurred soon before or after the attacks. Therein lies the flaw in her argument.
Q2: Editorial: A recent survey shows that 77 percent of people feel that crime is increasing and that 87 percent feel the judicial system should be handing out tougher sentences. Therefore, the government must firmly address the rising crime rate.
The reasoning in the editorial's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that the argument
(a) appeals to survey results that are inconsistent because they suggest that more people are concerned about the sentencing of criminals than are concerned about crime itself
(b) presumes, without providing justification, that there is a correlation between criminal offenders being treated leniently and a high crime rate
(c) fails to consider whether other surveys showing different results have been conducted over the years
(d) fails to distinguish between the crime rate's actually rising and people's believing that the crime rate is rising
(e) presumes, without providing justification, that tougher sentences are the most effective means of alleviating the crime problem
Ans: (d)
(a) This choice isn’t accurate, because the survey results aren’t necessarily inconsistent. We’re told that 77% of people feel that crime is increasing, but that isn’t indicative of how concerned about crime people are.
(b) This choice isn’t accurate, because the editorial isn’t actually doing what the choice describes. The editorial indicates that it’s possible that the respondents to the survey might presume such a correlation, but the more glaring gap between the editorial’s support and its conclusion lies in the leap from a public perception of a possible shortcoming of the judicial system to a demand that the government should address the rising crime rate.
(c) This choice isn’t accurate. When a Flaw choice starts with the words “fails to consider” or “overlooks the possibility that”, it’s helpful to ask yourself whether it’s important to the argument’s integrity to consider what follows. Do we care whether other surveys showing different results have been conducted over the years? No—the argument only addresses the current state of affairs. That means we can eliminate this choice, even though the editorial does fail to consider what’s described here; in other words, the editorial never needed to consider it in the first place.
(e) This isn’t accurate. The editorial never assumes that tougher sentences are the most effective solution, so this choice goes too far in its description.
(d) This accurately describes a flaw in the editorial’s reasoning, and we can analyze the argument in the following way:
Conclusion:
The government must firmly address the rising crime rate
Q3: Journalist: Newspapers generally report on only those scientific studies whose findings sound dramatic. Furthermore, newspaper stories about small observational studies, which are somewhat unreliable, are more frequent than newspaper stories about large randomized trials, which generate stronger scientific evidence. Therefore, a small observational study must be more likely to have dramatic findings than a large randomized trial.
Which one of the following most accurately expresses a flaw in the journalist's reasoning?
(a) It casts doubt on the reliability of a study by questioning the motives of those reporting it.
(b) It fails to consider that even if a study's findings sound dramatic, the scientific evidence for those findings may be strong.
(c) It confuses a claim about scientific studies whose findings sound dramatic with a similar claim about small observational studies.
(d) It overlooks the possibility that small observational studies are far more common than large randomized trials.
(e) It fails to rule out the possibility that a study's having findings that sound dramatic is an effect rather than a cause of the study's being reported on.
Ans: (d)
(a) This choice describes something that isn’t actually happening in the passage, because the journalist never questions newspapers’ motives.
(b) This choice isn’t accurate. The journalist never makes a distinction between a study with dramatic findings and those that are based on strong scientific evidence. And if the journalist did explicitly consider that a study could have dramatic findings and strong scientific evidence for them, that still wouldn’t fix the argument.
(c) This choice isn’t accurate. The journalist never confuses two claims, but rather uses the truth of them to make an illogical conclusion about what must be true regarding the likelihood of small studies having dramatic findings. The problem is in the assumption that the higher amount of news coverage means a higher probability of dramatic findings, when the higher amount of news coverage could be a simple reflection of a higher number of small studies.
(e) This choice describes a classic flaw of reverse causation (instead of X causing Y, perhaps Y actually caused X). That classic flaw isn’t actually happening in this argument, since we aren’t even dealing with a causal argument to begin with.
(d) This accurately describes a flaw in the journalist’s reasoning, which is structured as follows:
Conclusion:
A small observational study must be more likely to have dramatic findings than a large randomized trial
Q4: Argument:
Economic Analyst: The recent increase in the price of dairy products has led to a significant reduction in their consumption. However, the overall expenditure on dairy products has remained unchanged. This indicates that consumers are spending the same amount of money on fewer dairy products, implying that the demand for dairy products is inelastic.
Which of the following is a major flaw in the analyst's argument?
(a) The analyst does not consider the possibility of consumers switching to alternative products.
(b) The argument does not account for the potential increase in the cost of production for dairy products.
(c) The analyst assumes that the consumption pattern of all dairy products is identical.
(d) The argument overlooks the potential impact of seasonal variations on dairy product prices.
(e) The analyst assumes that the unchanged expenditure indicates inelastic demand without considering other factors that might affect consumer spending.
Ans: (e)
The analyst's conclusion that the demand for dairy products is inelastic is based solely on the observation that overall expenditure remained the same despite the increase in prices. However, this overlooks other factors that could explain unchanged expenditure, such as a general increase in consumer spending power or a shift in spending from other goods to dairy products. The argument jumps to a conclusion about demand elasticity without adequately considering these other possibilities.
Q5: Argument:
City Planner: To reduce traffic congestion in the city center, we implemented a high parking fee. Since then, the number of cars in the city center has decreased significantly. Therefore, the high parking fee is effective in reducing traffic congestion.
Which of the following is a major flaw in the city planner's argument?
(a) The argument does not consider that the reduction in cars might be due to factors other than the high parking fee.
(b) The argument assumes that traffic congestion is only caused by the number of cars.
(c) The argument overlooks the possibility that the high parking fee could negatively affect local businesses.
(d) The city planner does not consider the long-term sustainability of high parking fees.
(e) The argument assumes that the reduction in cars is a permanent change.
Ans: (a)
The city planner attributes the decrease in cars solely to the implementation of the high parking fee, without considering other possible factors that could have contributed to this decrease, such as improved public transportation, changes in work habits, or even seasonal variations. This makes the conclusion about the effectiveness of the parking fee in reducing congestion potentially flawed.
Q6: Argument:
HR Manager: Our company has seen a decrease in employee turnover after introducing flexible work hours. Therefore, offering flexible work hours is an effective strategy to reduce employee turnover.
Which of the following is a major flaw in the HR manager's argument?
(a) The argument assumes that the introduction of flexible work hours is the only change that has occurred in the company.
(b) The argument does not consider the overall industry trend in employee turnover.
(c) The HR manager overlooks the potential costs associated with implementing flexible work hours.
(d) The argument assumes that flexible work hours are valued equally by all employees.
(e) The HR manager does not consider the possible negative impact of flexible work hours on productivity.
Ans: (a)
The HR manager's conclusion relies on the assumption that the decrease in employee turnover is solely due to the introduction of flexible work hours, without considering other changes in the company or external factors that might have contributed to this decrease, such as salary increases, improved work conditions, or changes in the job market.
Q7: Argument:
Environmental Activist: Areas with strict environmental regulations have lower levels of pollution. This clearly shows that strict environmental regulations are effective in reducing pollution.
Which of the following is a major flaw in the activist's argument?
(a) The argument assumes that the only way to reduce pollution is through strict environmental regulations.
(b) The argument does not consider the possibility that low pollution levels could lead to the implementation of strict regulations.
(c) The activist overlooks the potential economic impact of strict environmental regulations.
(d) The argument assumes that the areas with strict regulations are representative of all areas.
(e) The activist does not consider the long-term effectiveness of strict environmental regulations.
Ans: (b)
The environmental activist assumes a causal relationship where strict regulations lead to lower pollution levels. However, it's also possible that areas with naturally lower levels of pollution are more inclined to implement strict regulations, reversing the assumed cause-and-effect relationship.
Q8: Argument:
Marketing Director: Our latest advertising campaign led to a 20% increase in sales. This proves that the campaign was successful in attracting new customers.
Which of the following is a major flaw in the marketing director's argument?
(a) The argument does not consider the effectiveness of previous advertising campaigns.
(b) The argument assumes that an increase in sales is solely attributable to the advertising campaign.
(c) The director overlooks the cost of the advertising campaign relative to the increase in sales.
(d) The argument assumes that the increased sales are due to new customers rather than repeat customers.
(e) The director does not consider the possible impact of competitors' activities on our sales.
Ans: (d)
The marketing director concludes that the increase in sales is due to attracting new customers, but this ignores the possibility that the increase could be from existing customers buying more. The assumption that increased sales are directly linked to new customer acquisition is a significant flaw in the argument.
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