Weekly Current Affairs (15th to 21st January 2025) Part - 1 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

India’s Demographic Transition

Why in News?

• A recent report by McKinsey & Company underscores the urgency for India to capitalize on its demographic dividend, stating that the country has only 33 years remaining before it transitions into an “aged” economy, akin to developed nations by the 2050s. The report warns of slower economic growth, increasing dependency ratios, and fiscal challenges as the working-age population declines relative to the elderly.

Key Takeaways

• Declining Support Ratio: The support ratio (working-age individuals per senior aged 65 or older) has decreased from 14:1 in 1997 to 10:1 in 2023, with projections suggesting a drop to 4.6:1 by 2050 and 1.9:1 by 2100.
• Rising Pressure on Public Finances: By 2050, seniors are expected to make up 15% of total consumption, increasing from 8% today, thereby straining pensions, healthcare, and family resources.
• Low Labour Market Participation: India's labor force participation, especially among women, is notably low. Worker productivity averages USD 9 per hour, significantly lower than the USD 60 per hour in high-income countries.
• Birth Rate Decline: A global decline in birth rates is impacting both emerging and developed economies, which could have wide-ranging effects on GDP growth, labor markets, and consumer behavior.

Additional Details

Recommendations:

• Enhance labor force participation, particularly among women, to maximize the demographic dividend.
• Focus on technological adoption and innovation to boost worker productivity.
• Strengthen public finances and social support systems to cater to the growing elderly population.

What is Demographic Transition?

Demographic transition is a model illustrating changes in birth and death rates and shifts in population age structure as societies advance economically and technologically.

• It consists of several stages:
• Stage 1: High birth and death rates lead to a stable population.
• Stage 2: Death rates decline due to improvements in healthcare, resulting in rapid population growth.
• Stage 3: Birth rates begin to fall, slowing population growth.
• Stage 4: Both birth and death rates are low, resulting in a stable or aging population.

According to the 2011 Census, India is currently in stage three of the demographic transition model, characterized by a shift from high to low mortality and fertility rates. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) stands at 2.0, below the replacement rate of 2.1. The World Population Prospects 2024 report forecasts that India's population will peak at 1.7 billion in the early 2060s before declining by 12% thereafter, while still remaining the most populous country globally.

Challenges of an Aging Population in India

• Declining Workforce Participation: The decreasing proportion of working-age individuals may lead to significant economic slowdowns, similar to Japan's situation where 27% of its population is over 65.
• Healthcare System Strain: An aging population will likely experience higher rates of chronic illnesses, putting additional pressure on India's healthcare system.
• Lower Productivity and Innovation: An elderly population may result in reduced economic activity and innovation.
• Impact on Family Structures: Urbanization and the rise of nuclear families may increase the burden of eldercare on working-age adults, leading to economic and emotional strain.

Way Forward

• Skill Development of Aging Workforce: Invest in education and training programs to equip older individuals with skills needed for the 21st-century economy.
• Healthcare Infrastructure: Strengthen public healthcare systems to provide quality and affordable care for the elderly.
• Financial Inclusion: Ensure financial security for the elderly through accessible pension schemes and social security programs.
• Innovation and Productivity Growth: Promote research, entrepreneurship, and technology to enhance productivity.
• Intergenerational Inclusion: Encourage dialogue and social inclusion to address the concerns of both the young and elderly.
• Addressing Demographic Dividend: Tackle issues like poor education and gender inequality to harness India's demographic potential.

In conclusion, addressing the challenges associated with India's demographic transition is crucial to ensure sustainable economic growth and social stability as the country approaches an aging demographic landscape.

Deccan Volcanism and Movement of Indian Plate

Why in News?

• A recent study has highlighted that tropical flora demonstrated remarkable resilience during the Deccan Volcanism period, which was associated with significant mass extinctions of various fauna, including dinosaurs. These mass extinctions are characterized by rapid biodiversity loss due to catastrophic events such as climate changes, asteroid impacts, or extensive volcanic eruptions.

Key Takeaways

• Deccan Volcanism led to mass extinctions of dinosaurs and other fauna while fostering diverse tropical flora.
• The warm, humid climate during volcanic inactivity, along with the Indian Plate's movement through the equator, enhanced floral diversity.
• Deccan volcanism contributed to the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event approximately 66 million years ago.

Additional Details

• Impact on Fauna and Flora: The volcanic activity supported hyper-diverse tropical flora by creating fertile, undisturbed habitats for angiosperms, rather than causing floral extinction.
• Global and Regional Implications: Tropical rainforests in the Indian Plate region adapted and thrived, indicating a higher resilience of tropical flora to climatic stresses.

What is Deccan Volcanism Theory?

• About: This theory proposes that the volcanic activity leading to the formation of the Deccan Traps played a critical role in the mass extinction event that occurred approximately 66 million years ago.
• The Deccan Traps are a large volcanic plateau in peninsular India, formed by fissure volcanic eruptions.

Formation

• The Deccan Traps were formed by intense volcanic activity caused by a mantle plume.
• A mantle plume is a cylindrical upwelling of hot magma from the Earth's mantle that is responsible for volcanic hotspots not linked to plate boundaries.
• Currently, the Deccan Traps consist of vast layers of basaltic lava flows resulting from large volcanic eruptions.

Connection with Indian Plate Movement

• India was a large island located off the Australian coast and began its northward journey about 200 million years ago.
• Underneath the Indian Plate lies the Réunion hotspot, a mantle plume of hot, molten rock that contributed to the formation of the Deccan Traps.
• Réunion hotspot is located in the Indian Ocean, near the island of Réunion (a French overseas region).

Key Points on the Movement of the Indian Plate

• Breaking of Gondwanaland: The Indian Plate was once part of a larger landmass including South America, Africa, Arabia, Madagascar, Australia, and Antarctica, which began breaking apart in the Late Triassic (around 215 million years ago).
• Separation and Drifting: India separated from Antarctica-Australia during the Early Cretaceous (~130-120 Ma) and the Indo-Madagascar block split around the same time.
• Rifting and Mantle Plumes: Mantle plumes were crucial in the rifting and drifting of the Indian Plate, with significant basaltic volcanic eruptions, such as those from the Réunion mantle plume.
• Collision with Asia: The Indian Plate collided with the Asian Plate around the Eocene (~50-35 Ma ago), leading to the formation of the Himalayan mountain range and the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau.
• Geological Impact: The India-Asia collision is a hard continent-continent collision that resulted in the formation of the largest and youngest fold mountain belt in the world, the Himalayas, significantly altering global climate and establishing a distinct monsoon system for the Indian subcontinent.

The study emphasizes the resilience of tropical flora during the Deccan Volcanism, which, while causing mass extinctions of fauna, also fostered diverse tropical ecosystems. The movement of the Indian Plate, in conjunction with volcanic activity, played a significant role in shaping global biodiversity and the Earth's climate.

Mains Question:

• Analyze the impact of the Indian Plate's movement on global biodiversity and climate.

Combatting Adolescent Pregnancy in India

Why in News?

• The study titled Teenage Pregnancy and Motherhood in India: Exploring Status and Identifying Prevention and Mitigation Strategies highlights the persistent challenge of adolescent pregnancies in the country.

Key Takeaways

• Teenage pregnancy is closely linked to child marriage and gender inequality.
• Despite a decline in child marriage rates from 47% in 2005 to 24% in 2020, teenage pregnancies remain high at 6%, especially in states like West Bengal, Bihar, and Rajasthan.
• Societal and economic factors such as poverty and a lack of reproductive education drive teenage pregnancies.
• The National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) reported that 6.8% of women aged 15-19 were either pregnant or had given birth.

Additional Details

• Teenage Pregnancy and Child Marriage: While child marriage has decreased, teenage pregnancies are still prevalent. States like West Bengal (16%) and Bihar (11%) have the highest rates.
• Lack of Support: Teenage mothers often face stigmatization and insufficient institutional support, leading to school dropouts and exacerbating their socio-economic challenges.
• Maternal Health Risks: Adolescent mothers face increased risks of anaemia, preterm labor, and maternal mortality. Many lack access to essential healthcare services.
• Societal Consequences: Teenage pregnancy results in health risks for both mothers and children, including child malnutrition and limited educational opportunities, perpetuating cycles of poverty.
• Policy Gaps: Existing welfare schemes often exclude teenage mothers due to age-based eligibility, further worsening their socio-economic situation.

The impacts of adolescent pregnancy are profound, affecting maternal health, child health, and perpetuating gender inequality. Addressing these challenges involves enhancing support systems, improving education, and effectively implementing policies that target teenage pregnancies.

UNICEF’s Prospects for Children in 2025 Report

Why in News?

• The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) has released a report titled "Prospects for Children in 2025: Building Resilient Systems for Children’s Futures," which warns about the escalating global crises affecting children. The report emphasizes the urgent need to enhance national systems that protect children and provide essential support.

Key Takeaways

• The number of children living in conflict zones has reached over 473 million, or more than one in six globally.
• Nearly 400 million children reside in countries burdened by significant debt, affecting investments in critical sectors.
• Only 2.4% of global climate finance is directed towards child-responsive initiatives.
• A digital divide exists, with significant disparities in internet access among youth, especially in low-income regions.

Additional Details

• Impact of Conflict on Children: The proportion of children affected by conflict has nearly doubled from 10% in the 1990s to 19% today, exposing them to risks like displacement and psychological trauma.
• Debt Crisis: A World Bank estimate suggests that a 5% increase in external debt for low- and middle-income countries could cut education spending by USD 12.8 billion.
• Climate Change: The limited allocation of climate finance towards children’s initiatives undermines necessary social services.
• Digital Inequality: While high-income youth have better internet access, only 53% of youth in Africa have internet connectivity, with a significant impact on adolescent girls and children with disabilities.

The report advocates for increased financing for climate recovery efforts, the establishment of inclusive systems prioritizing children's rights, and improved integration of digital initiatives to bridge inequality gaps.

Challenges Faced By Children in Contemporary India

• Climate and Environmental Hazards: India ranks 26 out of 163 countries in the Children’s Climate Risk Index, with increasing risks from extreme weather.
• Child Trafficking: The country faces significant challenges with child trafficking for labor, begging, and sexual exploitation.
• Child Labor: Despite laws against child labor, millions of children continue to work, particularly in agriculture and domestic sectors.
• Juvenile Crimes: In 2022, over 30,000 crimes were committed by minors, driven by poverty and lack of education.
• Child Marriage: South Asia, including India, has high rates of child marriage, limiting girls' educational and health opportunities.
• Gender Inequality: Girls from low-income backgrounds face heightened risks of dropping out of school and inadequate healthcare access.
• Disadvantaged Children: Those from rural areas, slums, and marginalized communities face severe deprivation in essential services.
• Population Growth: By 2050, India is expected to have 350 million children, necessitating child-friendly urban planning.

Way Forward

• Sustainable Future for Children: Ensure access to healthcare and family planning services while developing child-friendly cities.
• Poverty Alleviation: Strengthen schemes like PM POSHAN and MGNREGA to tackle malnutrition.
• Strict Enforcement Against Trafficking: Enhance implementation of anti-trafficking laws with community vigilance.
• Education Reform: Improve government school infrastructure and regulate private school fees.
• Juveniles in Conflict with Law: Focus on rehabilitation rather than punishment for minor offenders.
• Eradication of Child Marriage: Provide vocational training and financial support to at-risk girls.

These challenges call for a comprehensive strategy to safeguard children's futures, emphasizing multi-faceted solutions to address the interconnected issues they face.

Centre-State Revenue Dynamics

Why in News?

In the past decade (Fiscal Year 2016 (FY16) to FY25), the share of States' revenue derived from Central transfers and grants has significantly increased, highlighting a growing dependence on the Centre. This rise in the Centre’s share of state revenue, combined with declining efficiency in states' tax collection efforts, has deepened this reliance.

Key Takeaways

• States' revenue expenditures increased by 14% during the Covid pandemic due to welfare measures.
• The debt-to-GDP ratio for states is at 28.5% as of March 2024, indicating fiscal strain.
• Central transfers now account for 23-30% of total state revenue, an increase from 20-24% in the 2000s.
• Grants from the Centre represent 65-70% of States' non-tax revenue, up from 55-60% previously.
• States' own tax revenue has consistently remained below 50% of total revenue in the last decade.
• The share of non-tax revenue is projected to fall below 24% in FY25, the lowest in 25 years.
• Inefficiency in tax collection has resulted in declining revenue from various tax avenues.

Additional Details

• Pandemic Aftermath: States faced increased expenditures due to welfare measures during the pandemic, while capital expenditure for infrastructure slowed, affecting long-term growth.
• Debt-to-GDP Ratio Trends: The current ratio exceeds the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management committee's recommended limit of 20%, highlighting an unsustainable debt burden.
• Increased Central Transfers: A notable increase in Central transfers has led to a greater reliance on the Centre for revenue generation.
• Reduced Non-Tax Revenue: Key components like interest receipts and dividends from State public sector enterprises are negligible, further limiting revenue.
• Inefficiency in Tax Collection: Major states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka have shown a decline in tax revenue relative to Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP), indicating systemic issues in tax mobilization.

The increasing dependence of states on the Centre presents significant challenges for fiscal autonomy and development. States must adopt measures to enhance revenue mobilization, including improving tax collection efficiency and fostering collaborative efforts with the Centre to ensure sustainable growth and reduce regional disparities.

Mains Question:

• Analyze the implications of increasing dependency of states on central transfers for India's fiscal federalism. How can states improve their revenue mobilization?

Boosting India's Rubber Industry

Why in News?

• The Rubber Board has initiated several programs, including the Indian Sustainable Natural Rubber (iSNR) initiative and the INR Konnect Platform, aimed at enhancing the global standing of rubber and increasing domestic production. These initiatives align with the National Rubber Policy (NRP) 2019, which seeks to develop an environmentally sustainable and globally competitive rubber industry.

Key Takeaways

• The iSNR initiative aims to comply with European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) standards.
• INR Konnect Platform connects rubber growers with potential adopters to boost productivity.
• The mRube platform enhances marketing and trade efficiency in the natural rubber sector.
• The government plans to increase subsidies for rubber cultivation gradually.

Additional Details

• iSNR Initiative: This initiative facilitates the traceability of rubber products by providing certificates that verify origin and compliance, aiming to promote sustainable rubber production and positioning Indian natural rubber as a competitive choice in the global market.
• INR Konnect Platform: A web-based platform designed to improve productivity by connecting growers of untapped rubber plantations with interested adopters, targeting the 20-25% of neglected plantations in India.
• mRube: Launched as a digital marketing platform by the Rubber Board to enhance trade efficiency in the rubber sector.
• EUDR Overview: This legislative framework aims to prevent products linked to deforestation from entering the EU market, thereby reducing carbon emissions and combating forest degradation.

In conclusion, India is actively working to strengthen its rubber industry through innovative initiatives such as the iSNR, INR Konnect, and mRube platforms, which are aligned with the National Rubber Policy 2019. These efforts focus on increasing domestic production and sustainability, while also addressing challenges such as compliance with EUDR regulations and expanding market access.