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A million and counting
?On April 2, the number of novel coronavirus (SARS-
CoV-2) infections in 181 countries/regions crossed
one million, and deaths passed 50,000.
?On April 3, the total number of cases and deaths
stood at 10,39,166 and 55,092, respectively.
?With 2,45,646 cases, the U.S. accounts for 24% of
the global total, while Italy, with 13,915 deaths, has
over 26% of total mortality.
?Four countries — the U.S., Italy, Spain and Germany
— have more cases reported than China.
Page 2


A million and counting
?On April 2, the number of novel coronavirus (SARS-
CoV-2) infections in 181 countries/regions crossed
one million, and deaths passed 50,000.
?On April 3, the total number of cases and deaths
stood at 10,39,166 and 55,092, respectively.
?With 2,45,646 cases, the U.S. accounts for 24% of
the global total, while Italy, with 13,915 deaths, has
over 26% of total mortality.
?Four countries — the U.S., Italy, Spain and Germany
— have more cases reported than China.
?The exponential increase becomes striking
considering that the time taken to report
1,00,000 more cases has been reducing.
?If it took 12 days to double to 2,00,000, it took
just three days each to cross 0.3 and 0.4 million.
?Thereafter, 0.1 million more cases have been
reported every two days except on two occasions
— the increase from 0.6 million to 0.7 million and
0.9 million to 1 million happened in a single day.
?The main limiting factor in knowing the true
spread has been the restricted number of tests
done in most countries, India included.
Page 3


A million and counting
?On April 2, the number of novel coronavirus (SARS-
CoV-2) infections in 181 countries/regions crossed
one million, and deaths passed 50,000.
?On April 3, the total number of cases and deaths
stood at 10,39,166 and 55,092, respectively.
?With 2,45,646 cases, the U.S. accounts for 24% of
the global total, while Italy, with 13,915 deaths, has
over 26% of total mortality.
?Four countries — the U.S., Italy, Spain and Germany
— have more cases reported than China.
?The exponential increase becomes striking
considering that the time taken to report
1,00,000 more cases has been reducing.
?If it took 12 days to double to 2,00,000, it took
just three days each to cross 0.3 and 0.4 million.
?Thereafter, 0.1 million more cases have been
reported every two days except on two occasions
— the increase from 0.6 million to 0.7 million and
0.9 million to 1 million happened in a single day.
?The main limiting factor in knowing the true
spread has been the restricted number of tests
done in most countries, India included.
?The Washington Post, as on March 28, only 2,250
tests per million were performed, which is two-
thirds of what South Korea did three weeks earlier.
?Most countries have not made attempts to test
those who do not show symptoms.
?There is accumulating evidence suggesting that a
“substantial fraction” of people infected with the
virus are asymptomatic.
?For instance, in South Korea, more than 20% of
asymptomatic cases did not develop symptoms
during hospitalisation.
Page 4


A million and counting
?On April 2, the number of novel coronavirus (SARS-
CoV-2) infections in 181 countries/regions crossed
one million, and deaths passed 50,000.
?On April 3, the total number of cases and deaths
stood at 10,39,166 and 55,092, respectively.
?With 2,45,646 cases, the U.S. accounts for 24% of
the global total, while Italy, with 13,915 deaths, has
over 26% of total mortality.
?Four countries — the U.S., Italy, Spain and Germany
— have more cases reported than China.
?The exponential increase becomes striking
considering that the time taken to report
1,00,000 more cases has been reducing.
?If it took 12 days to double to 2,00,000, it took
just three days each to cross 0.3 and 0.4 million.
?Thereafter, 0.1 million more cases have been
reported every two days except on two occasions
— the increase from 0.6 million to 0.7 million and
0.9 million to 1 million happened in a single day.
?The main limiting factor in knowing the true
spread has been the restricted number of tests
done in most countries, India included.
?The Washington Post, as on March 28, only 2,250
tests per million were performed, which is two-
thirds of what South Korea did three weeks earlier.
?Most countries have not made attempts to test
those who do not show symptoms.
?There is accumulating evidence suggesting that a
“substantial fraction” of people infected with the
virus are asymptomatic.
?For instance, in South Korea, more than 20% of
asymptomatic cases did not develop symptoms
during hospitalisation.
?If in Italy the virus was spreading silently for
about 50 days before the first case was reported
on February 20, in Iceland, nearly half of the 20%
who tested positive for the virus were either
asymptomatic or showed only mild symptoms.
?Since April 1, China has been reporting new cases
that are asymptomatic.
?The World Health Organization maintains that the
virus mainly spreads through droplets and contact
with contaminated surfaces, and the risk of getting
infected by an asymptomatic person is “very
low”.
?In India, it is important to test travellers and
trace and monitor their contacts.
Page 5


A million and counting
?On April 2, the number of novel coronavirus (SARS-
CoV-2) infections in 181 countries/regions crossed
one million, and deaths passed 50,000.
?On April 3, the total number of cases and deaths
stood at 10,39,166 and 55,092, respectively.
?With 2,45,646 cases, the U.S. accounts for 24% of
the global total, while Italy, with 13,915 deaths, has
over 26% of total mortality.
?Four countries — the U.S., Italy, Spain and Germany
— have more cases reported than China.
?The exponential increase becomes striking
considering that the time taken to report
1,00,000 more cases has been reducing.
?If it took 12 days to double to 2,00,000, it took
just three days each to cross 0.3 and 0.4 million.
?Thereafter, 0.1 million more cases have been
reported every two days except on two occasions
— the increase from 0.6 million to 0.7 million and
0.9 million to 1 million happened in a single day.
?The main limiting factor in knowing the true
spread has been the restricted number of tests
done in most countries, India included.
?The Washington Post, as on March 28, only 2,250
tests per million were performed, which is two-
thirds of what South Korea did three weeks earlier.
?Most countries have not made attempts to test
those who do not show symptoms.
?There is accumulating evidence suggesting that a
“substantial fraction” of people infected with the
virus are asymptomatic.
?For instance, in South Korea, more than 20% of
asymptomatic cases did not develop symptoms
during hospitalisation.
?If in Italy the virus was spreading silently for
about 50 days before the first case was reported
on February 20, in Iceland, nearly half of the 20%
who tested positive for the virus were either
asymptomatic or showed only mild symptoms.
?Since April 1, China has been reporting new cases
that are asymptomatic.
?The World Health Organization maintains that the
virus mainly spreads through droplets and contact
with contaminated surfaces, and the risk of getting
infected by an asymptomatic person is “very
low”.
?In India, it is important to test travellers and
trace and monitor their contacts.
The spectre of a post-COVID-19 world
?China battled another coronavirus epidemic in 2003 —
the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
epidemic.
?China’s growth rate has further plummeted.
?The consequences for the global economy of China
ceasing to be the wor ld’ s biggest exporter of
manufactured goods are considerable, and with no
country in a position to replace it, this development
will precipitate a further economic downturn
internationally.
?It is important to think of what lies ahead.
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