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The fragile ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib war 
?United Nations Secretary-General __________ has 
requested warring nations to choose CEASEFIRE. 
?President of Syria Bashar al-Assad 
?Syria + Russia vs Turkey + Anti Syrian President force. 
?No one believes about the agreements longitivity.  
?The region was spared a Syrian offensive in 2018 on 
T u r k e y ’ s plea. 
?A Turkey-Russia agreement of 2018 established a 
demilitarised zone (DMZ) with terrorists, including the 
HTS, leaving this zone, while so-called moderate rebels 
had to withdraw heavy weaponry. 
Page 2


The fragile ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib war 
?United Nations Secretary-General __________ has 
requested warring nations to choose CEASEFIRE. 
?President of Syria Bashar al-Assad 
?Syria + Russia vs Turkey + Anti Syrian President force. 
?No one believes about the agreements longitivity.  
?The region was spared a Syrian offensive in 2018 on 
T u r k e y ’ s plea. 
?A Turkey-Russia agreement of 2018 established a 
demilitarised zone (DMZ) with terrorists, including the 
HTS, leaving this zone, while so-called moderate rebels 
had to withdraw heavy weaponry. 
Page 3


The fragile ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib war 
?United Nations Secretary-General __________ has 
requested warring nations to choose CEASEFIRE. 
?President of Syria Bashar al-Assad 
?Syria + Russia vs Turkey + Anti Syrian President force. 
?No one believes about the agreements longitivity.  
?The region was spared a Syrian offensive in 2018 on 
T u r k e y ’ s plea. 
?A Turkey-Russia agreement of 2018 established a 
demilitarised zone (DMZ) with terrorists, including the 
HTS, leaving this zone, while so-called moderate rebels 
had to withdraw heavy weaponry. 
?Syria and Turkey accused each other of 
violations, with Russia increasingly agitated due 
to drone attacks against its airbase in Latakia from 
Idlib-based jihadists. 
?With the rebels making territorial gains, Syria 
resumed its offensive in April 2019, retaking 
territory and targeting Saraqib that strides the M5 
highway connecting Aleppo with Damascus. 
?The latest Russo-Turkish agreement reaffirms 
their ‘ d e d i c a t i o n to combat and eliminate all 
terrorist groups in Syria ’. 
?Mr. Assad, recognised by the United Nations but 
not by the West 
Page 4


The fragile ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib war 
?United Nations Secretary-General __________ has 
requested warring nations to choose CEASEFIRE. 
?President of Syria Bashar al-Assad 
?Syria + Russia vs Turkey + Anti Syrian President force. 
?No one believes about the agreements longitivity.  
?The region was spared a Syrian offensive in 2018 on 
T u r k e y ’ s plea. 
?A Turkey-Russia agreement of 2018 established a 
demilitarised zone (DMZ) with terrorists, including the 
HTS, leaving this zone, while so-called moderate rebels 
had to withdraw heavy weaponry. 
?Syria and Turkey accused each other of 
violations, with Russia increasingly agitated due 
to drone attacks against its airbase in Latakia from 
Idlib-based jihadists. 
?With the rebels making territorial gains, Syria 
resumed its offensive in April 2019, retaking 
territory and targeting Saraqib that strides the M5 
highway connecting Aleppo with Damascus. 
?The latest Russo-Turkish agreement reaffirms 
their ‘ d e d i c a t i o n to combat and eliminate all 
terrorist groups in Syria ’. 
?Mr. Assad, recognised by the United Nations but 
not by the West 
?Assad is openly supported by few of the nations that recognise 
him, now controls some 70% of his country and wishes to 
secure the remainder, but his forces remain dependent on 
Russia in the air and Iran and Hezbollah on the ground. 
?He is in haste because his troops are exhausted by nine years 
of continuous fighting and he cannot count on Russian, 
Iranian and Hezbollah support much longer.  
?President Er d og a n wishes to play a lead role in the Arab 
world. 
?Mr. E r d o g a n has leveraged the refugee problem to extract 
€4.5 billion from the European Union and uses the refugees 
continuously as a bargaining counter. 
Page 5


The fragile ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib war 
?United Nations Secretary-General __________ has 
requested warring nations to choose CEASEFIRE. 
?President of Syria Bashar al-Assad 
?Syria + Russia vs Turkey + Anti Syrian President force. 
?No one believes about the agreements longitivity.  
?The region was spared a Syrian offensive in 2018 on 
T u r k e y ’ s plea. 
?A Turkey-Russia agreement of 2018 established a 
demilitarised zone (DMZ) with terrorists, including the 
HTS, leaving this zone, while so-called moderate rebels 
had to withdraw heavy weaponry. 
?Syria and Turkey accused each other of 
violations, with Russia increasingly agitated due 
to drone attacks against its airbase in Latakia from 
Idlib-based jihadists. 
?With the rebels making territorial gains, Syria 
resumed its offensive in April 2019, retaking 
territory and targeting Saraqib that strides the M5 
highway connecting Aleppo with Damascus. 
?The latest Russo-Turkish agreement reaffirms 
their ‘ d e d i c a t i o n to combat and eliminate all 
terrorist groups in Syria ’. 
?Mr. Assad, recognised by the United Nations but 
not by the West 
?Assad is openly supported by few of the nations that recognise 
him, now controls some 70% of his country and wishes to 
secure the remainder, but his forces remain dependent on 
Russia in the air and Iran and Hezbollah on the ground. 
?He is in haste because his troops are exhausted by nine years 
of continuous fighting and he cannot count on Russian, 
Iranian and Hezbollah support much longer.  
?President Er d og a n wishes to play a lead role in the Arab 
world. 
?Mr. E r d o g a n has leveraged the refugee problem to extract 
€4.5 billion from the European Union and uses the refugees 
continuously as a bargaining counter. 
?He also needs manageable ties with both Russia and the U.S. to play 
each off against the other.  
?The confrontation with Moscow four years ago led to severe 
economic difficulties for Turkey after Russian curbs on trade and 
tourism, which Mr. E r d o g a n would not wish to have repeated. 
?The confrontation with Moscow four years ago led to severe 
economic difficulties for Turkey after Russian curbs on trade and 
tourism, which Mr. E r d o g a n would not wish to have repeated. 
?Both countries also have a vested interest in the TurkStream 
pipeline conveying Russian gas to southern Europe. 
?Criticism of Mr. E r d o g a n has lately emerged domestically but his 
position is solid provided he retains his a r m y ’ s support by avoiding 
more casualties in Idlib.   
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