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For a product, the forecast and the actual sales for December 2002 were 25 and 20 respectively. If the exponential smoothing constant (α) is taken as 0.2, then forecast sales for January, 2003 would be:  
  • a)
    21    
  • b)
    23    
  • c)
    24    
  • d)
    27 
Correct answer is option 'C'. Can you explain this answer?
Verified Answer
For a product, the forecast and the actual sales for December 2002 wer...
Use new forecast = old forecast + α (actual demand – old forecast) 
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For a product, the forecast and the actual sales for December 2002 wer...
Exponential Smoothing
Exponential smoothing is a forecasting technique that uses a weighted average of past observations to make predictions about future values. It is particularly useful when there is a trend or pattern in the data that needs to be captured.

Given Data
- Actual sales for December 2002: 20
- Forecast sales for December 2002: 25
- Exponential smoothing constant (): 0.2

Formula for Exponential Smoothing
The formula for exponential smoothing is as follows:

Forecast for the next period = (1 - ) * Actual sales for the current period + * Forecast for the current period

Calculating the Forecast for January 2003
Using the given data and the exponential smoothing formula, we can calculate the forecast for January 2003 as follows:

Forecast for January 2003 = (1 - ) * Actual sales for December 2002 + * Forecast for December 2002

Substituting the values into the formula:

Forecast for January 2003 = (1 - 0.2) * 20 + 0.2 * 25
= 0.8 * 20 + 0.2 * 25
= 16 + 5
= 21

Therefore, the forecast sales for January 2003 would be 21.

Conclusion
Based on the given data and using exponential smoothing with a constant of 0.2, the forecast sales for January 2003 would be 21.
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For a product, the forecast and the actual sales for December 2002 were 25 and 20 respectively. If the exponential smoothing constant (α) is taken as 0.2, then forecast sales for January, 2003 would be:a)21 b)23 c)24 d)27Correct answer is option 'C'. Can you explain this answer?
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