Answer the following question based on the information given below.A d...
Consider the total drug production (in thousands) for each quarter.
Jan-Feb-Mar = 18 + 20 + 15 = 53; Apr-May-Jun = 17 + 19 + 15 = 51; Jul-Aug-Sep = 13 + 15 + 16 = 44; Oct-Nov-Dec = 19 + 18 + 15 = 52
The average monthly production for any drug type will be the weighted average of the total drug production.
For Pain Killers, total production = (27% of 53) + (45% of 51) + (34% of 44) + (31 % of 52)
= 14.31 + 22.95 + 14.96 + 16.12 = 68.34
Average monthly production of pain killers (in thousands)
= 68.34/12 = 5.695
Similarly, for Antibiotics, total production = (28% of 53) + (25% of 51) + (14% of 44) + (21 % of 52)
= 14.84 + 12.75 + 6.16 + 10.92 = 44.67
Average monthly production of antibiotics (in thousands) = 44.67/12 = 3.7225
For Vitamins, total production = (23% of 53) + (16% of 51) + (25% of 44) + (23% of 52)
= 12.19 + 8.16+ 11 + 11.96 = 43.31
Average monthly production of vitamins (in thousands) = 43.31/12 = 3.609
For Probiotic Capsules, total production = (22% of 53) + (14% of 51) + (27% of 44) + (25% of 52)
= 11.66 + 7.14 + 11.88 + 13 = 43.68
Average monthly production of probiotic capsules (in thousands) = 43.68/12 = 3.64
Thus, the least per month average production is for vitamins.
Consider each type of medicine at a time and try to identify the highest percentage change by observation (as far as possible).
Pain Killer:
Consider the actual change in each quarter: Apr-Jun = 22.95 - 14.31 = 8.64, Jul-Sep = 7.99 and Oct-Dec =1.16
Observe that the actual change in Apr-Jun and Jul-Sep is nearly the same, but the base is smaller for Apr-Jun (14.31) compared to Jul-Sep (22.95).
Hence, the % change in Apr-Jun > % change in Jul-Sep
Similarly, observe that the base value in Jan-Mar and Jul- Sep is nearly same but the actual change is much higher in Apr-Jun (8.64) compared to Oct-Dec (1.16)
Hence, the % change in Apr-Jun > % change in Oct-Dec
Hence, just calculate the % change for Apr-Jun
% change = (8.64/14.31) * 100 = 60.38% (This is the highest quarter-on-quarter % change for pain killer).
Use this 60% as a reference for the next type of medicine.
Antibiotics:
Actual change in each quarter: Apr-Jun = 2.09, Jul-Sep =
6.59 and Oct-Dec = 4.76
Apr-Jun for Antibiotics has similar figures as Oct-Dec for
Pain Killers. Hence, it is definitely less than 60%.
The figures for Jul-Sep for painkillers become nearly half of figures in Apr-Jun. Hence, this is approximately a 50% change.
Hence, just check for Oct-Dec
% change = (4.76/6.16) x 100 = 77.27%
Now you can verify that no other drug in any quarter has such a high growth.
Hence, option 2.
Note: One way to verify this is to apply a 78% growth to each quarter i.e. where there is an increase, multiply by 1.78 and where there is a decrease, multiple by 0.22.
e.g. For Vitamins, Apr-Jun = 8.16. Now, 8.16 x 1.78 = 14.52. Since July-Sep value (i.e. 11) < 14.52, the growth is less than 78%
Similarly, for For Vitamins, Jan-Mar = 12.19. Now, 12.19 x 0.22 = 2.68. Since Apr-Jun value (8.16) > 2.68, the decrease is less than 78%.