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Date: 16 November 2023
The global political landscape in 2024 is overshadowed by the looming possibility of Donald Trump's return to the Oval Office. The Economist's 38th annual predictive guide, "The World Ahead 2024," highlights this as a significant concern. Trump's potential victory in the next November election is seen as a coin-toss probability, with several polls placing him ahead of President Joe Biden in key swing states. His dominance in the Republican primary and the trust he commands on economic matters, as evidenced by a New York Times survey, underscore his political resilience.
Trump's potential return is particularly alarming given the current state of democracy in the United States and the international challenges it faces. His baseless claim of victory in the 2020 election was more than a mere falsehood; it was a calculated attempt to manipulate and intimidate the American populace. Internationally, the U.S. confronts hostility from Russia in Ukraine, Iran in the Middle East, and China in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. These countries, sharing a vision of a new international order where autocracy prevails, loosely coordinate their efforts.
A second Trump term, according to The Economist, would likely be more organized than his first, with key positions filled by staunch believers in his agenda. This term would be marked by Trump's unrestrained pursuit of retribution, economic protectionism, and extravagant deals. The prospect of his return fills global parliaments and boardrooms with despair.
The greatest threat Trump poses is to the U.S. itself. His election-denial in 2020, if vindicated by a win, would further erode the norms and customs foundational to the nation. He would likely wage war on any institution that opposes him, including the courts and the Department of Justice. Internationally, a Trump victory would be celebrated by autocratic regimes, as it would exemplify the dysfunction of American democracy. His disregard for due process and civil rights would undermine the U.S.'s ability to advocate for these values globally.
Trump's protectionist instincts would also be unleashed. His first term saw the economy thrive despite China tariffs, but his plans for a second term, including a universal 10% levy on imports, could be more damaging. Domestically, this would lead to increased prices for Americans, and internationally, it would signal a retreat from global economic integration.
In foreign policy, Trump's first term had some successes, such as arms support to Ukraine and fostering peace in the Middle East. However, a second term would occur in a changed world. Trump's transactional approach and disregard for human rights could lead to unpredictable outcomes, such as a hasty end to the Ukraine war, unreserved support for Israel, and a potential deal with China over Taiwan. These actions could have far-reaching consequences, including further conflict in Europe and the Middle East, and miscalculations over Taiwan.
In conclusion, a second Trump term represents a pivotal moment, not just for the U.S. but for the world. His victory would confirm his destructive approach to power and encounter less resistance. The moral authority of the U.S. would decline, and the fate of the world would hinge on the ballots of a few in key states.
Q1: What is the primary concern highlighted in The Economist's "The World Ahead 2024" regarding Donald Trump?
(a) His influence on the global economy
(b) The possibility of his victory in the 2024 election
(c) His policies on climate change
(d) His stance on healthcare reforms
Ans: (b)
Sol: The passage begins by emphasizing the concern over Trump's potential victory in the 2024 election as a significant global issue.
Q2: How does the article describe Trump's impact on U.S. democracy?
(a) As a strengthening force
(b) As largely insignificant
(c) As a divisive and manipulative influence
(d) As a promoter of international cooperation
Ans: (c)
Sol: The passage describes Trump's baseless claim of victory in the 2020 election as a manipulative attempt to influence American democracy.
Q3: What potential international repercussions are mentioned regarding a second Trump term?
(a) Strengthened alliances with European countries
(b) Increased global economic integration
(c) Celebration by autocratic regimes and potential global instability
(d) Enhanced U.S. leadership in climate change initiatives
Ans: (c)
Sol: The passage discusses how a Trump victory would be celebrated by autocratic regimes and could lead to global instability due to his transactional and unpredictable foreign policy.
Q4: According to the article, what would be the impact of Trump's economic policies in his second term?
(a) A decrease in national debt
(b) Lower prices for American consumers
(c) Increased economic isolation and higher prices domestically
(d) Improved trade relations with China
Ans: (c)
Sol: The passage mentions Trump's protectionist instincts, including a proposed 10% levy on imports, which would lead to increased prices for Americans and signal a retreat from global economic integration.
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