Changing International Political Order - 1 | PSIR Optional for UPSC (Notes) PDF Download

Meaning of the Cold War

• The Cold War is often described as a form of warfare waged in peacetime without arms, primarily between two emerging superpowers. It was more of a diplomatic struggle rather than a direct military conflict, rooted in deep ideological animosity and political mistrust.
• Flemming characterized the Cold War as a battle fought not on physical battlefields but in the realm of human thought, where each side sought to influence and control the minds of others. Unlike a traditional war where opponents are openly identified and combat is visible, the Cold War was marked by a lack of formal declarations of war, with diplomatic ties still in place among the involved nations.
• While there were instances of military confrontations and casualties during the Cold War, it was largely a struggle of psychological warfare aimed at diminishing the adversary’s influence and expanding one’s own sphere of followers.
• The Cold War represented a bi-polar struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union, but it also included the allies or satellite states of these superpowers. It was fundamentally a clash between two ideologies and contrasting systems of governance and economy: communism versus liberal democracy, and socialist command economy versus capitalism.
• Although history has seen various bi-polar confrontations, this was the first instance where two distinct social organizational models competed to realize different visions for the world.
• By the early 20th century, both the USA and the USSR were on the path to becoming superpowers. A comparison of manufacturing shares in 1932, post-Great Depression, showed America leading with nearly 32%, followed by the Soviet Union with 11.5%. Other major countries like Britain, Germany, and France were close behind.
• However, after World War II, Germany and Japan were defeated, and Britain and France were left weakened. This power vacuum allowed the USA and the Soviet Union to emerge as superpowers. Despite suffering immense losses during the war, the Soviet Union made remarkable progress due to its socialist command economy. The rapid rise of these two nations spurred a competition between them, ultimately leading to the Cold War.
• The Soviet Union established the Cominform (Communist Information Bureau),Radio Moscow, and supported various communist parties abroad. In response, the United States created the Voice of America radio news program and backed anti-communist political parties and movements worldwide.
• The conflict between the USA and the USSR was fundamentally a clash of ideologies: the USA championed political and economic liberalism, while the USSR adhered to Marxism-Leninism.

Factors Responsible for the Cold War

• After World War II, the USA and the USSR emerged as superpowers with conflicting ideologies, leading to intense rivalry and the formation of opposing blocs.
• The USA, backed by Western countries, was anti-communist, while the USSR aimed to spread communism. The USA solidified its superpower status with nuclear weapons, but the USSR quickly caught up, developing its own nuclear arsenal in 1949.
• Historical mistrust fueled the conflict. The Soviet Union remembered Western intervention in the Bolshevik Revolution, while the West was wary of the USSR's goal to overthrow capitalism globally.
• During World War II, suspicion grew when the West delayed opening a second front against Germany, which the USSR perceived as a strategy to weaken both Germany and the USSR.
• After the war, both superpowers took steps to ease tensions. The USA agreed to occupy only western zones of Germany and Austria, while the USSR dissolved the Comintern and withdrew troops from Finland and Austria.
• Despite these efforts, significant differences remained. The USSR wanted to install communist governments in Eastern Europe, which clashed with American and British interests.
• Both sides played a role in the Cold War, with the temporary cooperation during World War II being a brief interlude in their long-standing antagonism.

Different Phases of the Cold War

First Phase

Poland's Fate

• Poland was a crucial issue for all countries involved. France and Britain declared war on Germany in 1939 because of the invasion of Poland.
• For Russia, Poland was historically significant as a gateway for invasions and a historic enemy.
• When the Soviets entered Poland in 1944, they handed power to the pro-communist Lublin government.
• The future of Poland was discussed at the Yalta Conference, but no clear agreement was reached on its boundaries.
• Ultimately, Poland fell into the Soviet sphere of influence, marking a significant point in the Cold War's origin.

Balkans Conflict

• The Balkans also became a point of contention. Britain and the Soviet Union initially agreed on separate spheres of influence in the region.
• Communist regimes were established in all Balkan countries except Greece, where British control prevailed.
• This division led to Winston Churchill's famous description of an "iron curtain" descending over Europe, intensifying East-West tensions.

Germany's Division

• After Germany's unconditional surrender, it was divided into four occupation zones controlled by the Soviet Union, the USA, Britain, and France.
• Berlin, despite being in the Soviet zone, was also divided into four zones.
• The Potsdam Conference aimed to finalize a peace treaty with Germany, but the Allies disagreed on key issues like disarmament, demilitarization, and industrial reconstruction.
• The Soviet Union wanted a weakened Germany and demanded $20 billion in reparations, but the Western allies did not agree.
• Eventually, the British, American, and French zones merged to form West Germany, while the Soviet zone became East Germany.

Berlin Blockade

• The Western allies wanted to introduce monetary reforms in Germany, but the Soviet Union opposed this, leading to the Berlin Blockade.
• The Soviet Union banned all traffic between Berlin and the Western zones, protesting against the Brussels Pact, which aimed to counter Soviet influence.

Iran Crisis

• A crisis in Iran arose when Soviet troops failed to withdraw by March 1946. The Soviet Union sought privileged access to Iranian oil and refused to allow Iranian troops in Soviet-held areas.
• The US pressured the Soviet Union through the United Nations Security Council to withdraw from Iran.

Turkey and Greece

• In Turkey, the Soviet Union demanded international control of the Bosporus Strait, which the Western allies resisted.
• In Greece, the US and the Soviet Union supported rival factions, further straining relations.

Truman Doctrine

• In response to these tensions, US President Truman formulated the Truman Doctrine, a policy of containment aimed at limiting the spread of communism.
• This marked a shift from isolationism to interventionism in US foreign policy.

Marshall Plan

• Amid rising communism in war-torn Europe, US Secretary of State Marshall proposed the Marshall Plan for European economic reconstruction.
• The plan aimed to transfer over ten billion dollars to Europe over twenty years to stabilize economies and resist communism.
• Significantly, aid was offered to East European countries as well.

Cominform

• In response to the Truman Doctrine and the Marshall Plan, the Soviet Union revived the Cominform to align communist governments in its sphere with Moscow’s policies.

NATO Formation

• The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was established on April 4, 1949, as a military alliance against the Soviet Bloc.
• Members included the US and various European countries, with Article V stating that an attack on one member would be considered an attack on all.
• Later, Greece and West Germany also joined NATO.

China and Korea Developments

• Post-1945 developments in China and Korea further intensified the Cold War.
• In China, communists led by Mao Zedong established the People’s Republic of China in 1949, which the US refused to recognize.
• After Japan's defeat in World War II, Korea was divided into North and South Korea, with the North under Soviet control and the South under American control.

Korean War

• In 1950, North Korea invaded South Korea, leading to a UN response dominated by capitalist states, declaring North Korea the aggressor.
• UN troops, led by General MacArthur of the USA, pushed North Korean forces out of South Korea and into North Korea.
• China intervened to support North Korea, pushing UN troops back into South Korea.
• An armistice was signed in 1953, ending active hostilities and marking the Korean crisis as the first military conflict of the Cold War.

Second Phase of the Cold War: Post Truman-Stalin Era

• During the second phase of the Cold War, tensions significantly eased, but the conflict did not come to an end.
• In the United States, President Truman's term ended in 1953, while in the Soviet Union, Stalin died in the same year. Stalin was succeeded by Nikita Khrushchev, who reversed many of Stalin's policies.
• Khrushchev advocated for relaxation of tensions in Europe and acknowledged Soviet responsibility for certain issues. However, he also suppressed anti-Soviet sentiments in countries like Poland and Hungary.
• Soviet leaders criticized racial conflicts in the USA, attributing them to capitalist inequality. In response, the USA and its allies attempted to incite anti-Soviet sentiments in Eastern Europe.
• The leadership change in the USSR and Khrushchev's criticism of Stalinism sparked revolts in Poland and Hungary.
• In Poland, a revolt broke out in 1956 but was suppressed. The Communist Party of Poland split into Stalinist and reformist factions. The reformist faction, led by Gomulka, pursued a "national road to socialism," allowing Poland more autonomy while respecting Soviet influence.
• In Hungary, a revolt in 1956 led to initial Soviet concessions. However, when Hungary demanded the withdrawal of Soviet troops and exit from the Warsaw Pact, the Soviet Union intervened militarily, executing Hungarian leader Imre Nagy and reaffirming its dominance.
• After the Chinese Revolution, General Chiang Kai-Shek retreated to Taiwan, establishing the Republic of China. The USA shifted its policy towards Taiwan after the Korean War, leading to increased military support.
• In 1954, China threatened military action to reclaim Taiwan, leading to heightened tensions between China and the USA. Despite close calls, direct military conflict was avoided.
• The Suez Canal crisis in 1956 saw Egypt nationalize the canal, prompting military action from Britain, France, and Israel against Egypt. The USA opposed this action, leading to a rare instance of cooperation between the USA and the Soviet Union. The crisis marked the decline of British and French imperial power.
• In Cuba, Fidel Castro's rise to power in 1959 brought the island closer to the Soviet Union. The USA responded by cutting diplomatic ties and attempting to invade Cuba, but the Bay of Pigs invasion failed. The Soviet Union then escalated its military presence in Cuba, leading to the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the closest point of nuclear conflict between the superpowers.
• The Soviet Union issued an ultimatum regarding Berlin, leading to a standoff with Western powers. The Berlin Crisis ultimately favored the Western powers, with the construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961 symbolizing the division of East and West Germany.
• During this phase, there were moments of thawing relations, exemplified by the 1963 nuclear test ban treaty and the establishment of a direct communication link between Moscow and Washington to prevent misunderstandings.

The Detente

• The relationship between the Soviet Union and the USA entered a new phase called Detente, which aimed at relaxing the East-West conflict. It also considered China's role, as the USA and China had a tense relationship. Detente with China was a significant achievement during this period. Although the Cold War did not end, there was an improvement in understanding between the superpowers.
• Henry Kissinger described Detente as a way for adversary powers to arrange their differences. Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev emphasized resolving disputes through peaceful means rather than threats. President Nixon was seen as the "author of Detente," particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations.
• To ease tensions, several steps were taken, including the signing of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968 by the U.K., USA, and USSR. West Germany's policy of Ostpolitik in 1969 improved relations with Eastern Europe, leading to the recognition of both Germanys as separate states. The Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT-I) was signed in 1972, slowing down the arms race.
• The Helsinki Conference in 1975 involved 35 countries and aimed to bury the Cold War by accepting post-World War II European frontiers, including the division of Germany. Communist countries promised to grant their citizens human rights, such as freedom of speech and the right to leave the country.
• During Detente, USA-China relations improved significantly. Nixon and Kissinger worked to ease tensions with China, leading to China's admission to the UN in 1971 and the recognition of the People's Republic of China by the USA in 1979.

New Cold War

• After the Helsinki Conference, the process of detente lost its momentum. Relations between the USA and the Soviet Union became so strained that by 1980 it seemed like the Cold War had returned. This period of heightened tension was termed the New Cold War.
• The New Cold War differed from the original Cold War in that it was not based on ideological conflict but on a balance of power. A new power bloc, particularly the People's Republic of China (PRC), emerged as a significant force that could not be ignored or defeated.
• A crucial turning point was the Soviet army's intervention in Afghanistan in 1979. The New Cold War was characterized by both superpowers trying to expand their influence primarily outside of Europe. Conflicts in regions like Indo-China, Africa, and Afghanistan became more significant than ever before.
• For the Soviet Union, detente meant accepting the status quo in Europe. In various regions, including Indo-China and Africa, the USA and the Soviet Union supported opposing groups. In Afghanistan, the Soviet Union replaced the President with one more favorable to its interests, stationing nearly 100,000 soldiers there.
• The USA viewed the Soviet military presence in Afghanistan as a threat, particularly to Iran, and responded by moving its warships into the Gulf region.
• Both superpowers were heavily involved in developing new weapons of mass destruction. US President Ronald Reagan approved the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), also known as Star Wars, a plan to develop a new weapons system.

The End of the Cold War

• The New Cold War ended with the collapse of communism in various Eastern European countries, eventually leading to the downfall of communism in its birthplace, the USSR.
• Poland (1988): The process began with the Solidarity trade union organizing massive anti-government strikes, compelling the government to allow free elections where the communists were decisively defeated.
• Other Countries: Similar events unfolded in Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, and Czechoslovakia, where communist regimes faced significant challenges.
• East Germany: In East Germany, communist leader Erich Honecker attempted to suppress demonstrators by force but was overruled by his colleagues. By the end of 1989, the Communist government resigned, and the Berlin Wall, a symbol of the Cold War, was torn down with public enthusiasm.
• Fall of the Berlin Wall: The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 was seen as the end of the Cold War, as its erection had marked the beginning of the conflict. In 1990, the West German currency was introduced in East Germany, leading to the reunification of the two Germanys. The Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany became the head of the united country, which adopted a market economy and Western-style democracy.
• Soviet Union: In the Soviet Union, communism also collapsed. Mikhail Gorbachev attempted to revitalize the country through policies of glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring, involving economic and social reforms). However, these measures failed, and by the end of 1991, the USSR disintegrated into separate republics. Russia alone could not wield the same influence as the former Soviet Union.
• The end of the Cold War did not bring about the disappearance of global problems, as new issues and areas of conflict emerged.

Arms Race and Cold War

• Nuclear arms race has been the most defining feature of cold war. USA was the first country to create nuclear weapon and so far the only country that has used nuclear weapon.
• The logic of security during the cold war was based on MAD or nuclear balance. NPT ensured that the number of countries possessing nuclear weapon remain minimum possible. NPT can be treated as fairly successful.
• Throughout cold war, there has been qualitative and quantitative arms race. There has been development in launching techniques. In 1952, USA tested hydrogen bomb. In 1961, USSR tested Tsar Bomb (the king of bombs). The largest nuclear device so far.
• During cold war, countries develop ICBMs, a way to achieve nuclear deterrence by massive retaliation.
• Ronald Reagan planned strategic defense initiative, satellite based weapons.
• Towards the end of cold war, we see global disarmament efforts like CTBT and bilateral efforts. The prominent being INF treaty, CFE (Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe), START I and New START treaty.
• However since 2002 we see the beginning of new arms race. USA came out of ABM treaty. Since the end of cold war we see the number of countries possessing nuclear weapons has increased. Besides nuclear arms race between USA and Russia, a new arms race has started between China, India and Pakistan.
• There is effort by North Korea to strengthen its deterrence and by Iran to acquire deterrence. There is fear of nuclear terrorism. Thus the present arms race has become multipolar, along with complex interdependence. It is showing the typical features of post modern world.
• Recently USA has announced that it will come out of INF treaty. INF treaty had provided stability in Europe. It bans the production and deployment of Short Range Missiles.
• The foreign policy concept of Russia, published in Nov 2016 suggest that Russia considers deterrence as necessary for peace.
• Nuclear posture review of USA, published in Feb 2018 mentions modernization of nuclear triad by USA. It also openly recognizes for the first time that China is seeking regional hegemony in Asia Pacific. Up till now the document focused only on Russia. It also says that the aim of China is not just to challenge US hegemony but to establish itself as a pre-eminent power. It has demanded $1.2 trillion for 30 year modernization plan which has been granted. Similarly Russia is also developing short range missiles, one of the reason given by USA to come out of INF treaty.

India and the Arms Race

• India has also started new arms race in South Asia. India has entered into deal with Russia to acquire S400 Triumph missile defence system. So far, the most advanced air defence system which can engage multiple targets at the same time. It has capacity to engage up till 36 targets at the same time at speed faster than the most fighter aircrafts.
• It has special panoramic radar which can detect the threat as far as 600km away and can engage the target at the range of 400kms.
• India is also acquiring Barak 8, long range surface to Air missile system, crucial for Indian navy. It is important as China is increasing its presence in Indian ocean. Similarly Triumph will cover most of Pakistan. However China is also buying 6 Triumphs to be deployed against USA.
• INS Arihant is now operationally ready.
• Thus there is a need for new multilateral treaty framework, which involves India, Pakistan, North Korea also. According to Rakesh Sood traditional nuclear arms control agreements are based on bipolar world. New agreements have to take into consideration the new reality of multipolar world and the fact that the technology is ending the distinction between conventional and nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Question & International Politics

• Oppenheimer, who is regarded as the father of nuclear bomb, cited the verse from Gita when witnessed the nuclear explosion.
• According to Prof. Ramesh Thakur, when nuclear war starts, there will be no difference between Jihadi and Fasadi. Gorbachev was right when he held that nuclear weapons are not to be used. Nuclear weapons release thermal energy, electromagnetic waves, radiations, nuclear clouds, nuclear winter, nuclear famine and genetic disorders for generations together. So far legally binding instruments exist with respect to the use of chemical and biological weapons but no such agreement exists with respect to the use of nuclear weapons, very recently a treaty prohibiting the use of nuclear weapons has come into existence on 7th July 2017. 124 countries participated, 122 countries accepted. None of the nuclear weapon states participated or accepted, hence the treaty is called as more of a aspirational document.

Nuclear Puzzle

Why nations acquire nuclear weapons?

• Deterrence.
• To use in war to assert their power status.
• As a bargaining tool.
• To gain diplomatic edge.
• As a method of prestige.

Why nations relinquish Nuclear Weapons?

1. Realist perspective

For realists, security is the prime goal and nations relinquish only when they get extended deterrence. e.g. India did not acquire nuclear weapons till it had the security umbrella of USSR. It shows that to avoid nuclear proliferation, nuclear weapon states should be providing security umbrella. Thus realists rely on deterrence. Realists approach can be seen in the views of Winston Churchill. Churchill in 1955 held that ‘Safety will be the sturdy child of terror and survival the twin brother of annihilation.’

2. Liberals

Liberals highlight the role of international institutions, treaties and regimes in preventing nuclear proliferation. NPT is so far the greatest  achievement of international community. A treaty which is almost universal. It certainly acted to prevent nuclear proliferation.

3. Social Constructivists

• In 1946 Albert Einstein remarked that ‘nuclear weapons changed every aspect of our lives. However it has not changed the mode of our thinking. Since we have not changed our mode of thinking, we will continue to drift towards unparalleled catastrophe.’
• Einstein’s statement provided a source of inspiration for the disarmament movements and social constructivists. Nina Tannenwald has analyzed the role of norms, taboos, towards nuclear non-proliferation. Taboos can be understood as cultural prohibitions. According to her, since USA used nuclear weapons on Japan, the world public opinion has gone against the use of nuclear weapons. It is the world public opinion, the new cultural norms which have prevented USA to use nuclear weapon again. USA continued 20 year war even at the cost of its own hegemony. This shows that norms and values do have a role in international politics.
• Nina Tannenwald has been involved in the formulation of the recent treaty on prohibition of nuclear weapons. In her article in Washington Post, she mentions that even when treaty does not eliminate a single nuclear weapon yet it will play the role in delegitimization of nuclear weapons. According to her, the chief objective of treaty is to develop new norms so that possession of nuclear weapons should be seen as a stigma rather than the matter of pride. Hence she suggests the need to change the way we think about nuclear weapons.
• In her recent article in Foreign Affairs, she has shown that it is a myth to believe that nations can coerce other nations to fall in line, just because they posses nuclear weapons. Neither countries, towed to the lines of any of the superpowers just because they possessed nuclear weapons. Even at present, just because China posses nuclear weapons or India posses nuclear weapon, it is not that all countries in the neighborhood will act according to their choice.
• However she is also pessimistic about the future of nuclear non-proliferation efforts considering the attempts by major powers to re-emphasize the importance of nuclear weapons in their security doctrines. USA pulling out of ABM treaty in 2002, Russia coming out of CFE treaty, Cooperative threat reduction program and USA’s indication to come out of INF treaty, may result into a new arms race and rolling back of the efforts of peace movements.
• Scholars like T.V. Paul have also emphasized on the role of norms, international agreements like NPT towards strengthening nuclear non-proliferation regime.
• Ernst Haas has highlighted the role of epistemic communities.

Who are epistemic communities?

In his article KNOWLEDGE, POWER AND INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY he defines epistemic community as network of professionals with expertise in particular domain. They form community because they share norms. Epistemic communities could create pressure on policy making institutions and helped in the evolution of security policies reducing the role of nuclear weapons. ICAN is an example of epistemic community which has played instrumental role in the treaty on prohibition of nuclear weapons.