Russia Ukraine Conflict: The Nuclear Angle | Gist of Rajya Sabha TV / RSTV (now Sansad TV) - UPSC PDF Download

Context

• The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has had an impact on geopolitics and the economy, as well as vividly alarming the world with fear and tension.
• One significant effect of the continuing issue is that, if NATO or the US decide to intervene militarily, Russia may use a nuclear threat. 
• This has caused a number of doubts to arise about the battle, giving it a nuclear angle.

An Overview

• The negotiators in Belarus have made an effort to find a peaceful solution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
• In this period, Russia increased nuclear apprehension, which raises the risk of using nuclear weapons, which would have negative effects on life, the environment, and the economy.
• When Russian President Vladimir Putin placed Russia's nuclear force on a special regime alert at the very beginning of Ukraine's invasion, the situation worsened, especially for Europe's security network.

Protecting Europe

• Nuclear-armed Russian submarines and mobile missile units were deployed by Putin. This has been perceived by many as a nuclear threat, at the same time, it is not so clear whether a prominent nuclear attack from the Russian side can be expected or not.
• The Russia – Ukraine crisis has imposed a significant threat on Europe’s security architecture. 
• It is evident that without recognising America’s role as a nuclear umbrella, the European countries cannot avert a nuclear attack with military means. 
• The “umbrella” is based on the assumption that the adversaries of NATO will refrain from using nuclear weapons because of the fear of a counterattack. 
• There lies a distinct psychology of deterrence with NATO’s nuclear powers.
• For instance, France and Britain rely on the concept of minimum deterrence in which exchange of nuclear strikes for many days is not followed. Instead, they believe that preventing the opponent with a final warning shot would be sufficient. 
• The US believes in deterrence that involves nuclear weapons with reduced explosive power. 
• Germany has contributed to Europe’s nuclear deterrence through the German Air Force Tornado fighter jets that are stationed in Buchel airbase in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate. During an emergency, the jets with German crews would fly nuclear weapons from the US to the target. 
• The Netherlands, Belgium and Italy have also participated in NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements. 
• Many nuclear gravity bombs certified for Tornado aircraft are currently stored in Europe.

Nuclear Weapons and the Challenges posed

• In the light of legality, the use of any nuclear weapon, considering the massive impact it has on civilians, infringes international humanitarian law.
• Already there is a mass migration of people from Ukraine to Poland and some are seeking shelter in Hungary, Romania, Moldova and Slovakia. A prominent nuclear threat would add to the humanitarian crisis.  
• The entire idea of nuclear weapons usage has been considered inconceivable by the United Nations.
• Nuclear weapons impose intimidatory tactics on the sovereignty of a country. 
• It is also said that nuclear weapons carry the relic of the Cold War and must be prevented from employment as it can cause havoc to humanity, economy and ecology tarnishing the larger interests of the dynamic realm of geopolitics. 
• In a world confronted with plenty of challenges raising severe concerns like climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, wherein the international communities are building bridges across the globe to collaborate and work towards net zero emissions, low carbon future, energy-efficient future, ecologically balanced future, this new issue of the nuclear threat is a deviation and increases the complexities of challenges for the world to deal with.

A major challenge for India

• Keeping the prominence of the ongoing crisis intact, there is an emerging trend of Russia losing grounds of empathy and friendship from the international communities. 
• This message was precise during the voting that took place after the Ukrainian invasion and Russia’s military action.
• As a result, it creates a massive dilemma for Russia’s old friends like India to retain its neutrality when the majority of the world is unidirectional (against Russia) at this moment. 
• India’s age-old friendship with Russia and the security concerns of India served as a strong ground to abstain from voting against Russia in the UNSC. 
• India has been firm and upfront about its advocacy of diplomatic resolutions to be the way forward to resolve the ongoing crisis.

Shaping the upcoming days: Experts’ take

• It has been highlighted that one-third of the arsenal of Russia is always on alert on the grounds of its nuclear first-use policy to put the country’s nuclear deterrence force into a special mode of combat service. It is normal in accordance with Russia’s nuclear doctrine and there is nothing much to worry about. 
• This leads to the emergence of two sets of interpretations of either considering the utterance of nuclear deterrence by Russia just as a mere strategy or a part of the nuclear doctrine. This area needs to be addressed and analysed. 
• The strategic analysts need to acknowledge the importance of Belarus and Ukraine and their historic shared roots with Russia.
• Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been a series of sanctions imposed by the US and its allies on Russia, to which Russia’s retaliation to spread the nuclear threat, has been considered absurd giving rise to perplexities. 
• According to the experts, nuclear deterrence as a response to sanctions could have been avoided. 
• The entire fear surrounding the nuclear angle nurtured by Russia will only come to an end, according to the expert, if it is convinced that Ukraine doesn’t pose a military threat backed by NATO to Russian interests.
• The alarm that arises from the nuclear angle of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will have far-reaching consequences affecting security, safety, stability and economy disrupting the global supply chain. 
• Therefore, the entire world is at the confluence of confusion and complexities and an anticipation of the severity of the nuclear threat from Russia and where it lands up into the dynamic topography of international relations will consume time and will require diplomatic engagements for a peaceful settlement.