50 Days of Russia-Ukraine Conflict | Gist of Rajya Sabha TV / RSTV (now Sansad TV) - UPSC PDF Download

Context   

Russia- Ukraine conflict has reached its 50th day but there seems to be no end of hostilities despite several rounds of peace talks in the last few weeks.

Status of the conflict

• Although Russia has gained some territory in Ukraine, its advancement has been far slower than anticipated. 
• Given the gap between Ukrainian and Russian military capabilities, Ukraine has been able to defend itself against Russian military force effectively. 
• Russia has partially withdrew from areas of north and east Ukraine and is now concentrating on gaining dominance in the Donbas.
• The U.S. government has announced $800 million in military aid for Ukraine. Russia placed penalties on 398 members of the US Congress in retaliation.
• In the midst of discussions about Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Russia has issued a warning that if they do, there would be no discussions about a nuclear-free Baltic, adding a new front to the existing conflict.

Implications of the prolonged conflict

• Apart from having lost significant territories to Russia, Ukraine has also been facing a humanitarian crisis. Several thousand people including civilians have been killed or injured. Lakhs have been displaced due to the conflict.
• The economic sanctions against Russia is likely to greatly impact Russia’s economic prospects and push it into a form of economic recession.
• The European Union which remains heavily dependent on Russian energy sources is facing steep shortages of fuel sources. This is causing an uptick in energy prices which in turn has had an impact on inflation levels within EU.
• Infact the inflation pressures have been noted on almost all countries. The food and energy supply chain disruptions due to the war seem to be the main reason for the uptick in inflation rates. Economy of most developing countries remain adversely impacted. According to the Global Crisis Response Group (GCRG) the war in Ukraine is setting in motion a three dimensional crisis- on food, energy and finance- that is producing alarming cascading effects to a world economy already battered by COVID-19 and climate change.

Ending the conflict

• It is urgent to put an end to hostilities by requesting a ceasefire and to engage in negotiations and diplomatic efforts to reduce the tensions and deescalate.
• It is necessary to address Russia's main security concerns. A formal, legally-binding neutrality proclamation for Ukraine might greatly aid in achieving this. This would suggest a formal policy that does not even attempt to pursue a military alliance with NATO. Other powers should likewise ensure this neutrality.
• It is necessary to exploit the modest military victory and the pressure the economic sanctions have put on Russia's economy to bring it to the bargaining table. This factor must be taken into account in order to persuade Russia to make certain concessions when a peace agreement is being negotiated.
• To ensure long-term peace and security in the region, a comprehensive peace agreement is required.
• Recognizing the error of the past, Russia must be incorporated into the European security framework. This would fulfil the requirement for a regional security architecture that is inclusive.