Climate Change: Impact on Indian Agriculture | Agriculture Optional Notes for UPSC PDF Download

Introduction

• The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Agriculture has noted that India incurs an annual cost of $9-10 billion due to extreme weather events. 
• Furthermore, it has observed that the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity are expected to become more severe from 2020 through the end of the century. 
• Alterations in the strength, occurrence, and timing of climate patterns, as well as extreme weather events, shifts in rainfall patterns, and river flows, are all anticipated to have an impact on the agricultural sector.

Impact of Climate Change on Indian Weather pattern

• Impact on Rainfall: One notable transformation is the potential increase in monsoon rains due to the acceleration of the hydrological cycle caused by rising temperatures. This could have far-reaching consequences for the agricultural landscape.
• Unpredictable Weather Patterns: Concurrently, there is a growing incidence of severe and extended dry spells, interspersed with heavy downpours. Such unpredictable weather patterns add to the challenges faced by Indian agriculture.

Impact of Climate Change on Crop Productivity

Decrease in Productivity

• The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) has conducted vulnerability assessments, which indicate a looming decrease in the productivity of major crops such as paddy, irrigated paddy, wheat, and maize between 2050 and 2080. While the decrease in productivity may be marginal in the coming years, it could plummet to as much as 10-40% by 2100 if farming practices do not adapt to the changing climate.
• Major crops including wheat, rice, oilseeds, pulses, fruits, and vegetables are likely to experience reduced yields over time. This could lead to India becoming a significant importer of items like oilseeds, pulses, and even milk. Adapting to climate change will necessitate innovative cropping patterns and suitable inputs to offset yield fluctuations.

Mixed Fortunes for Crops

• While most crops are poised to experience reduced production, some may benefit from climate change. Crops like soybean, chickpea, groundnut, coconut (particularly on the western coast), and potatoes (in regions such as Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh) could see improved yields.

Decline in Farm Income

• The Economic Survey of 2018 has raised alarms about the economic repercussions of climate change on agriculture. It estimates that every one-degree Celsius rise in temperature could lead to a 6.2% reduction in agricultural income during the kharif season and a 6% reduction during the rabi season in non-irrigated areas.

Other Challenges

• Beyond crop yield, climate change affects water availability and gives rise to variations in the incidence of pests and pathogens, contributing to crop diseases.

Socio-Economic Impact

Food Security

• The vulnerability of Indian agriculture to the vagaries of climate change, coupled with the low adaptation capacity of many Indian farmers, poses a significant risk to the country's food security. Projections suggest that by 2030, India may require an additional 70 million tonnes of food grains beyond the expected production levels in 2016-17.
• This heightened demand for food is compounded by factors such as population growth, urbanization, and rising incomes. Failure to respond promptly and effectively to climate change's impact on agriculture could compel India to depend on food imports.

Projected Food Demand

• The ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research projects a food demand of 345 million tonnes by 2030, a nearly 30% increase from 2011 levels. 
• The demands for fruits, vegetables, milk, animal products (meat, eggs, and fish), sugar, and edible oil are estimated to be 2-3 times higher than in 2011.

Economic Losses

• Extreme weather events already inflict substantial economic losses on India, currently estimated at about $9-10 billion annually. Alarmingly, nearly 80% of these losses remain uninsured. 
• These losses are expected to escalate as climate change continues to impact farm productivity.

Steps Taken to Address the Issue

Recognizing the gravity of the situation, India initiated the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) project nearly a decade ago.

Objectives of NICRA

The NICRA project aims to:

• Identify vulnerable areas.
• Assess the potential impact of temperature rise on crop farming, livestock, and fisheries.
• Develop crop varieties and agronomic practices adaptable to emerging weather patterns.

NICRA's Impact on Farmers

• NICRA has supported farmers in adapting to climate change through various means. These include the construction of water-harvesting structures as part of the NICRA project, enabling crucial irrigation during key stages of crop growth. As a result, these measures have led to increased yields in regions with low rainfall.
• Furthermore, NICRA has developed specialized, situation-specific technologies to enhance the resilience of farming in 151 climatically vulnerable districts. Additionally, it has created climate-resistant crop varieties.
• Significantly, contingency plans have been established for up to 650 districts to address climate-related anomalies. These efforts have contributed to the agricultural sector's continued growth, encompassing activities such as crop cultivation, horticulture, livestock farming, and fisheries, even in the face of a rising frequency of weather-induced natural disasters.

Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

• The Government of India is well aware of the impact of climate change on agriculture and the livelihoods of farmers. Extensive studies, both in the field and through simulations, have been conducted across various regions of the country. These assessments used crop simulation models and incorporated projected climate conditions for 2050 and 2080. The findings indicate that without the adoption of adaptation measures, rainfed rice yields in India are projected to decrease by 20% in 2050 and 47% in 2080. Meanwhile, irrigated rice yields are expected to decrease by 3.5% in 2050 and 5% in 2080. Wheat yields are also predicted to be significantly affected, with a reduction of 19.3% in 2050 and 40% in 2080, showing spatial and temporal variations. Kharif maize yields are projected to decrease by 18% and 23% in 2050 and 2080 scenarios, respectively. These changes not only result in reduced crop yields but also lower the nutritional quality of agricultural produce. Additionally, extreme events such as droughts impact food and nutrient consumption and have consequences for farmers.
• To address these challenges, the Government of India has devised plans and schemes aimed at making agriculture more resilient to climate change. The National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) is a key component of the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), focusing on developing and implementing strategies to enhance the resilience of Indian agriculture in the face of changing climatic conditions.
• In response to the need for sustaining domestic food production amidst changing climate conditions, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), under the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, launched the flagship research project 'National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture' (NICRA) in 2011. The NICRA project's primary goal is to create and promote climate-resilient agricultural technologies, specifically targeting vulnerable regions prone to extreme weather events like droughts, floods, frost, and heatwaves. The project encompasses short-term and long-term research programs with a national scope, covering adaptation and mitigation in areas such as crops, horticulture, livestock, fisheries, and poultry. The core focus areas of NICRA include identifying the most vulnerable districts and regions, developing crop varieties and management practices for adaptation and mitigation, and assessing the impact of climate change on livestock, fisheries, and poultry while identifying appropriate adaptation strategies. Since 2014, NICRA has developed 1888 climate-resilient crop varieties and demonstrated 68 location-specific climate-resilient technologies for wider adoption among farming communities.