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Impact of Climate Change on Hunger in India and Global Food Policy Report

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) recently published the "Global Food Policy Report: Climate Change & Food Systems," revealing the heightened risk of hunger in India due to climate change by 2030.

India's Food Security at Risk:

• India anticipates a 16% decrease in food production and a 23% increase in the population at risk of hunger by 2030 due to climate change.
• Projections are based on an evaluation model considering climate change's effects on food production, consumption, trade, and hunger risk.
• By 2030, the number of Indians at risk of hunger is expected to rise from 73.9 million to 90.6 million.
• The aggregate food production index would decrease from 1.6 to 1.5. This index covers edible nutrient-rich crops, excluding non-nutritive items like coffee and tea.
• Fortunately, climate change is not expected to significantly impact the average calorie consumption of Indians, projected to remain at 2,600 kcal per capita per day by 2030.

Global Food Projections:

• Globally, food production is projected to grow by approximately 60% over 2010 levels by 2050 amid climate change.
• Developing countries, especially in Africa, are expected to experience faster production and demand growth due to population and income increases.
• Diets are shifting towards higher-value foods and processed items, with meat production set to double in South Asia and West/Central Africa by 2030 and triple by 2050.
• Despite these increases, per capita consumption in developing countries will remain lower than in developed nations.
• The demand for processed foods is also driving oil crop production, expected to more than double in Southeast Asia and West/Central Africa by 2050.

The Climate Change-Food Production Nexus:

• Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from food systems activities, including production, transportation, and waste disposal, contribute to climate change.
• Livestock production, responsible for around 14.5% of global GHG emissions, is the largest contributor, particularly meat from ruminant animals like cattle and goats.
• Reducing meat and dairy consumption, along with curbing GHG emissions from other sources, is crucial to avoid catastrophic climate change, especially in high per capita meat and dairy consumption countries like the U.S.

Recommendations from the Global Food Policy Report:

• Investment in Research and Development: Allocate more resources for disruptive technology innovations in areas like irrigation and cold chains to expedite sustainable food systems transformation. Double public investment in such innovations to at least $15 billion in low- and middle-income countries.

• Management of Land and Water Resources: Improve land and water resource management without compromising development goals or exacerbating fossil fuel emissions.

• Healthy Diets and Sustainable Food Production: Prioritize healthy diets and sustainable food production by reducing the consumption of highly processed foods and red meats to improve ecological footprints.

• Efficient Value Chain: Enhance value chains' efficiency and support free and open trade as part of climate-smart agricultural and food policies.

• Social Protection: Implement social protection programs to safeguard vulnerable rural populations dependent on agriculture from climate change's adverse effects.

• Financing Sustainable Production: Emphasize the importance of adequately financing the shift toward sustainable production and consumption while improving livelihoods.