Environment & Ecology - 4 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

Global Infrastructure Resilience

The world's infrastructure sectors and buildings face a substantial threat from climate change. A recent report unveils the projected global average annual loss (AAL) in these sectors resulting from climate impact and disasters. This underscores the economic and political urgency of investing in resilience measures.

Critical Implications: AAL and Its Consequences

• The disclosed findings indicate that climate change may lead to a projected global Average Annual Loss (AAL) ranging from $732 to $845 billion annually. This significant amount constitutes roughly 14 percent of the worldwide gross domestic product (GDP) for the years 2021 to 2022. 
• The report, titled "Biennial Report on Global Infrastructure Resilience: Capturing the Resilience Dividend," was released on October 4, 2023, by the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI). Of concern, half of this financial vulnerability falls on low- and middle-income countries (LMIC).

Threatened Infrastructure Sectors

• In the primary infrastructure domains alone, the global AAL stemming from disasters and climate change is approximated to range between $301 and $330 billion. 
• Addressing the infrastructure deficit, meeting Sustainable Development Goals, attaining Net Zero emissions, and fortifying resilience by 2050 necessitate a staggering investment of $9.2 trillion. Out of this total, $2.84-2.9 trillion is specifically required in LMICs.

A Novel Risk Model

• The report introduces the Global Infrastructure Risk Model and Resilience Index (GIRI), which is the world’s first fully probabilistic risk model publicly available for estimating risk related to infrastructure assets concerning geological and climate-related hazards.

The Hazard Breakdown

• Geological hazards contribute to 30 percent of the total global AAL, while climatic hazards account for the remaining 70 percent. Climate change has the potential to significantly escalate AAL, with varying consequences for high-, middle-, and low-income countries.

Sectoral Concentration of Risk

• Around 80 percent of the risk is concentrated in the power, transportation, and telecommunications sectors, as highlighted in the CDRI report.

Income Disparities in Risk

• High-income countries hold approximately 67 percent of the global infrastructure asset value. Middle-income countries (both upper and lower) account for 24.8 percent and 7.0 percent, respectively, while low-income countries represent only 0.6 percent. 
• Surprisingly, LMICs face the highest relative risk, with a relative AAL ranging from 0.31 to 0.41 percent, compared to 0.14 percent in high-income countries.

Diverse Impact of Climate Change

• Anticipations of climate change repercussions vary across income brackets: high-income countries expect an 11 percent rise in Average Annual Loss (AAL), middle-income nations may encounter a surge of 12-22 percent, and low-income countries could confront a daunting 33 percent increase.

Cost Allocation Dynamics

• Remarkably, capital investment in infrastructure assets constitutes only 15-30 percent of the overall expenditure throughout their design lifecycle. In contrast, operations and maintenance play a substantial role, contributing up to 70-85 percent of the total expenditure, as highlighted by CDRI.

Challenges Confronting LMICs

• Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) contend with a multitude of intricate challenges, including a significant infrastructure deficit impeding social and economic development. Governance issues often result in subpar infrastructure quality, and disasters further disrupt services, compounding their difficulties.

Advocacy for Nature-Based Solutions

• The report champions the adoption of nature-based infrastructure systems, costing only 51 percent of traditional grey infrastructure projects. These nature-based solutions present a more sustainable approach to infrastructure development.

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood

Sikkim recently faced a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) when the South Lhonak Lake, situated at an elevation of 17,000 feet in the state's northwest, ruptured due to continuous rainfall.

• Consequently, the released water flowed downstream, leading to flooding in the Teesta River and impacting four districts of Sikkim: Mangan, Gangtok, Pakyong, and Namchi, according to reports from the Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority (SSDMA). Additionally, this flooding resulted in the breach of the Chungthang Hydro-Dam on the Teesta River in Sikkim, exacerbating the overall situation.

What is Glacial Lake Outburst Flood?

About:

• A GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood) is a sudden and potentially catastrophic flood that occurs when water stored behind a glacier or a moraine (a natural accumulation of ice, sand, pebbles, and debris) is released rapidly.
  • These floods happen when glacial lakes formed by melting ice accumulate water behind weak moraine dams.
  • Unlike sturdy earthen dams, these moraine dams can fail abruptly, releasing large volumes of water in minutes to days, leading to devastating downstream flooding.
• The Himalayan terrain, with its steep mountains, is particularly vulnerable to GLOFs.
• Climate change, accompanied by rising global temperatures, has expedited the process of glacier melting in the Sikkim Himalayas.
• The region now boasts more than 300 glacial lakes, with ten identified as susceptible to outburst floods.
• GLOF can be triggered by several reasons, including earthquakes, extremely heavy rains and ice avalanches.

Impact:

• GLOFs can result in catastrophic downstream flooding. They have the potential to release millions of cubic meters of water in a short period of time.
  • Peak flows during GLOFs have been recorded as high as 15,000 cubic meters per second (as per National Disaster Management Authority).

Vulnerability of South Lhonak Lake to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs):

• Perched at an altitude of approximately 5,200 meters above sea level, South Lhonak Lake in northern Sikkim has been a concern for scientists due to its gradual expansion, possibly attributed to the melting of ice at its head. The region's susceptibility to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) has been accentuated by seismic activities, including a significant earthquake in 2011 with a magnitude of 6.9.
• In response to the identified risk, the Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority and various stakeholders initiated a crucial plan in 2016 to mitigate potential threats from South Lhonak Lake. Under the leadership of innovator Sonam Wangchuk, known for his visionary approach, the plan involved employing High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) pipes to drain excess water from the lake. This innovative initiative successfully reduced the lake's water volume by approximately 50%, providing a certain level of risk mitigation.

What Actions be Taken to Reduce the Risk of GLOFs?

• Glacial Lake Monitoring: Establishing a comprehensive monitoring system to track the growth and stability of glacial lakes in vulnerable regions.
  • Satellite imagery, remote sensing technology, and field surveys through drones can be used to regularly assess changes in glacial lakes and their associated moraine dams.
• Early Warning Systems: and early warning systems that can provide timely alerts to downstream communities in the event of a GLOF.
  • Also, there is a need to complement it with flood protection measures, such as constructing protective barriers, levees, or diversion channels to redirect floodwaters away from populated areas.
• Public Awareness and Education: There is a need to raise public awareness about the risks of GLOFs and educate communities living downstream about evacuation procedures and safety measures, as per NDMA’s guidelines related to GLOF.
  • Conduct drills and training programs to ensure that residents know how to respond in case of a GLOF.
• International Cooperation: India can collaborate with neighboring countries in the Himalayan region, as GLOFs can have transboundary impacts.
  • Sharing information and best practices for GLOF risk reduction and management with neighboring countries can help to mitigate the risk.

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Coral Reef Breakthrough

The International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI) has introduced the Coral Reef Breakthrough in collaboration with the Global Fund for Coral Reefs (GFCR) and the High-Level Climate Champions (HLCC). This significant initiative was unveiled during the 37th ICRI General Meeting in 2023.

What is the Coral Reef Breakthrough?

• The Coral Reef Breakthrough is a scientifically grounded initiative that outlines specific objectives for both state and non-state entities to collaboratively preserve, safeguard, and rehabilitate coral reefs, recognizing their essential contributions to the future of humanity.
• The Coral Reef Breakthrough seeks to ensure the sustainability of a minimum of 125,000 km2 of shallow-water tropical coral reefs through investments totaling at least USD 12 billion. These investments aim to bolster the resilience of over half a billion people globally by the year 2030.

The initiative is structured around four key action points:

• Address local factors contributing to loss, such as land-based sources of pollution, destructive coastal development, and overfishing.
• Expand the coverage of coral reefs under effective protection by doubling the area, aligning with and surpassing global coastal protection targets like 30 by 30. The 30 by 30 initiative aims to safeguard a minimum of 30% of the Earth's land and ocean area by 2030, proposed during the UNCCD Conference of Parties (COP15).
• Promote the development and deployment of large-scale innovative solutions and climate-smart designs to aid coral adaptation, targeting 30% of degraded reefs by 2030.
• Secure investments of at least USD 12 billion by 2030 from both public and private sources to preserve and restore these critical ecosystems.

Meeting the objectives outlined in the Coral Reef Breakthrough is pivotal in realizing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), notably SDG14, Life Below Water.

Cutting Methane From Fossil Fuels

The spotlight is on a recent report titled "The Imperative of Cutting Methane from Fossil Fuels," jointly released by the International Energy Agency, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the UNEP-convened Climate and Clean Air Coalition. The report underscores the crucial role of focused methane mitigation efforts in addressing global warming.

What are the Key Findings from the Report?

Methane Emissions and Climate Impact:

• The imperative to mitigate methane emissions is critical to capping global warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
• Methane, a highly potent greenhouse gas, contributes to about 30% of global warming since the Industrial Revolution, and targeted efforts can prevent approximately 0.1°C of warming by 2050.

Current Methane Emission Landscape:

• Globally, around 580 million tonnes of methane are emitted annually, with human activities responsible for 60% of these emissions.
• Fossil fuel operations alone accounted for roughly 120 million tonnes of methane emissions in 2022.
• Projections indicate that total anthropogenic methane emissions may increase by up to 13% between 2020 and 2030.

Necessity of Specific Methane Mitigation:

• Despite substantial reductions in fossil fuel use, neglecting methane could lead to global temperatures exceeding 1.6°C by 2050.
• Targeted methane mitigation measures are crucial and should complement broader decarbonization efforts.
• Existing technologies can prevent over 80 million tonnes of annual methane emissions from fossil fuels by 2030, often at low or negative costs.
• The oil and gas sector may require around USD 75 billion by 2030 for methane reduction measures in a Net Zero scenario.

Economic and Health Advantages:

• Methane, a major contributor to ground-level ozone pollution, warrants mitigation efforts to avert nearly one million premature deaths by 2050.
• Meeting methane reduction goals will prevent 95 million tonnes of crop losses for key crops, offering economic benefits exceeding USD 260 billion between 2020 and 2050.
• Regulatory frameworks are essential for effective methane reduction, emphasizing the need for appropriate governance structures.

What is Methane?

Overview:

• Methane, represented by the chemical formula CH4, is the simplest hydrocarbon, comprising one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms.
• It possesses flammability and serves as a widely used fuel globally.
• As a potent greenhouse gas (GHG), methane has an atmospheric lifespan of approximately a decade, influencing the climate for several centuries.
• Over the initial 20 years in the atmosphere, methane exhibits more than 80 times the warming potency of carbon dioxide.
• Common sources of methane include oil and natural gas systems, agricultural practices, coal mining, and various waste disposal methods.

Initiatives to Combat Methane Emissions:

In India:

• Harit Dhara (HD)
• BS VI Emission Norms
• National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)

Globally:

• Methane Alert and Response System (MARS)
• Global Methane Pledge
• International Energy Agency (IEA)

International Energy Agency (IEA):

• Established in 1974 in Paris, France, as an autonomous intergovernmental organization.
• Focuses on energy policies encompassing economic development, energy security, and environmental protection.
• Mission: Ensure reliable, affordable, and clean energy for member countries and beyond.
• Releases major reports such as the World Energy Outlook Report, World Energy Investment Report, and India Energy Outlook Report.
• India joined the IEA in 2017.

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP):

• Founded on June 5, 1972, UNEP is a leading global environmental authority.
• Sets the global environmental agenda, advocates for sustainable development within the UN system, and serves as an authoritative voice for global environmental protection.
• Produces major reports including the Emission Gap Report, Adaptation Gap Report, Global Environment Outlook, Frontiers, and Invest into a Healthy Planet.
• Conducts major campaigns such as Beat Pollution, UN75, World Environment Day, and Wild for Life.
• Headquarters located in Nairobi, Kenya.
• Supports its 193 Member States in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, with India being a member.

UNEP-Convened Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC):

• A voluntary global partnership comprising governments, intergovernmental organizations, businesses, scientific institutions, and civil society entities.
• Works to reduce short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) with significant impacts on climate change and public health.
• India has been a CCAC Partner since 2019.

Climate Impact, Loss & Damage In Sundarbans

In the year 2023, floods and storms, categorized as hydrological and meteorological disasters, constituted 85 percent of the most expensive climate change-related disasters among the world's top 20, as reported in "Counting the Cost 2023: a year of climate breakdown" by the non-profit organization Christian Aid.

Key Highlights of the Report

• Prevalence of Floods and Storms: Floods and storms constituted 85% of the top 20 most costly climate change-related disasters, impacting 14 countries across six continents.
• Climate Change Amplifying Disasters: Various disasters, including wildfires, droughts, floods, and storms, were exacerbated by the influence of climate change.
• Economic Costs and Disparity: The economic costs of disasters per capita revealed significant inequality, with wealthier countries experiencing higher per capita costs due to robust infrastructure and extensive insurance coverage.
• Disparities in Insurance Coverage: A notable gap in insurance coverage for climate-related disasters exists between regions, with 74% of economic losses in the United States insured compared to just 13% in the Asia-Pacific region.
• Unequal Recovery: Recovery from disasters is slower and more unequal in economically disadvantaged countries, leading to increased poverty in these regions.
• Global Postcode Lottery: The report underscores a "global postcode lottery," emphasizing that less-prepared, poorer countries suffer disproportionately from climate-related disasters, despite contributing less to global warming.
• Escalating Threat of Storms: The report highlights the growing frequency of major storms due to climate change, echoing concerns raised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
• Importance of Adaptation and Preparedness: There is a clear call for investments in adaptation measures, such as early warning systems, to alleviate the impacts of climate-related disasters.
• Advocacy for Global Solidarity: The report emphasizes the necessity of mobilizing funds for adaptation and addressing loss and damage, particularly with the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund in 2024.

Specific Cases Studies of Disasters

Malawi:

• In 2023, Cyclone Freddy had a severe impact on Malawi, a country with a low income. The cyclone affected over two million people, equivalent to 10% of the country's population. Cyclone Freddy stands out as the second-deadliest cyclone in Africa this century and holds the record for the longest-lasting tropical cyclone, lasting for 34 days. 
• The economic cost per person in Malawi due to Cyclone Freddy amounted to approximately $17, and the projected full recovery cost was estimated at $680 million, constituting about 5.2% of the nation's economy. 
• This financial burden is substantial, considering that the average annual income in Malawi is less than $500 million, making the recovery costs represent over five percent of very low incomes. Despite receiving international aid, the people of Malawi bear a significant financial burden for the reconstruction and recovery efforts, highlighting the challenges faced by a nation responsible for only 0.04% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Libya:

• Storm Daniel caused floods in Libya, resulting in the tragic deaths of at least 11,000 people and affecting a million more. While quantifying the economic cost per person has proven challenging, estimates place it at around $105, ranking it as the seventh-most expensive disaster globally. 
• The analysis suggests that the average recovery cost of just over $80 per person directly affected is insufficient for the comprehensive recovery needed in Libya, an upper higher-income nation.

Hawaii (USA):

• Wildfires in the US state of Hawaii took the unfortunate distinction of being the most expensive disaster of 2023. The estimated losses and damages amounted to around $4,000 per person.

Initiatives for Disaster Risk Reduction:

Global Initiatives:

• Sendai Framework: Adopted during the Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in 2015 in Sendai, Miyagi, Japan, the Sendai Framework serves as the successor instrument to the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA). This framework addresses a wide range of risks, including small-scale and large-scale, frequent and infrequent, sudden and slow-onset disasters originating from natural or man-made hazards. It also encompasses related environmental, technological, and biological hazards and risks. The framework aims to guide the management of multi-hazard aspects of disaster risk within development at all levels and across all sectors.
• Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS): The Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) initiative, operating under the World Meteorological Organization, plays a crucial role in saving lives, protecting assets, and securing livelihoods. It achieves this by enhancing access to early weather warnings and risk information for people in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
• Green Climate Fund’s Sectoral Guide on Climate Information & Early Warning Systems: This guide provides an overview of country-specific needs and evidence-based programming experiences in the relevant sector. Its objective is to identify opportunities for impactful investments in each sector to guide proposal development for the Green Climate Fund (GCF), aligning with its investment criteria during its first replenishment period from 2020 to 2023.

India’s Initiatives

• Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure Society (CDRIS): CDRIS represents a global partnership comprising national governments, United Nations agencies and programs, multilateral development banks and financing mechanisms, the private sector, academic and research institutions.
  • Its objective is to enhance the resilience of infrastructure systems to climate and disaster risks, thereby promoting sustainable development.
• National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP): The primary focus of the NDMP is to coordinate responses to natural or man-made disasters and to build capacity in disaster resiliency and crisis response.
  • It establishes policies, plans, and guidelines for Disaster Management to ensure timely and effective responses to disasters.
• Establishment of the National Disaster Reaction Force (NDRF): India has taken significant steps to mitigate and respond to various types of disasters. One noteworthy achievement is the establishment of the National Disaster Reaction Force (NDRF), which stands as the world's largest rapid reaction force exclusively dedicated to disaster response.
• Managing Disasters Linked to Climate Change: India has embraced several international agreements and frameworks to effectively manage disasters associated with climate change.
  • These include the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals (2015-2030), and the commitment to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
• These agreements collectively underscore the interconnections between Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), Climate Change Adaptation (CCA), and sustainable development.

Way Forward

• Global Solidarity and Financial Support: Wealthier nations, which historically have contributed more to greenhouse gas emissions, should provide financial support to poorer countries. This can be done through mechanisms like the Loss and Damage Fund, which have operationalized in 2024.
• Insurance and Risk Management: Expanding insurance and risk management solutions in vulnerable countries can be a way to mitigate the financial impact of disasters.
• Adaptation and Preparedness: Investing in adaptation measures, such as early warning systems and resilient infrastructure, is vital.
• Awareness and Education: Increasing awareness about the risks of climate change and educating communities on how to prepare for and respond to disasters is essential.
• Policy and Governance: Nations need to implement and enforce policies that address climate change and its impacts.
• Research and Data Collection: Continued research into the effects of climate change on different regions and the cost of disasters is necessary.
• International Collaboration: Collaboration in terms of technology transfer, knowledge sharing, and financial resources is necessary to help vulnerable countries cope with the impacts of climate change.
• Sustainable Development: Long-term strategies should focus on sustainable development that does not exacerbate climate change.

Conclusion

The article highlights the disproportionate burden of climate disasters on poorer countries. It calls for global efforts to mobilize funds for adaptation and addressing loss and damage and at the same time stress should be on the need for better preparedness and adaptation strategies to mitigate future disasters.