Internal Security - 5 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

Disturbance In Neighboring Nations And India’s Internal Security

The focus on internal security has been a paramount concern for the Indian government. Since gaining independence, India has confronted various internal security challenges, including terrorism, insurgencies in Left Wing Extremist (LWE) areas, the Northeast, and the security dynamics in Jammu and Kashmir.

Left Wing Extremism (LWE) Theater

• In April 2006, then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh identified Naxalism as the "single biggest internal security challenge" faced by India. By 2014, Maoism had been significantly quelled in states like West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Odisha, with Andhra Pradesh successfully driving them out.
• Post-2014, the government initiated the "final push" against Maoists, employing intelligence-based operations, establishing camps in Maoist strongholds, and supporting infrastructure development.
• This comprehensive strategy resulted in a notable reduction in LWE-affected districts, from 96 in 2010 to 46 in 2021. Moreover, fatalities decreased from 1,005 to 147, and violent incidents by LWE actors dropped from 2,213 to 509.

Conclusion

• In the LWE theatre, overall violence has reduced significantly over the past decade.
• However, Chhattisgarh continues to remain a Maoist stronghold where security forces still suffer casualties.

Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Theater:

• Over the past nine years, the government has implemented various measures, including a significant economic package in 2015, reaching out to dissenting youth through interlocutors, and the reorganization of the state into two Union Territories by abrogating Article 370. 
• With an increased presence of security forces and proactive actions by agencies such as the NIA, incidents of stone-pelting in the Valley have nearly ceased, and terrorist activities have declined.
• Government data indicates a 32% reduction in terrorism since August 5, 2019, with a 52% drop in security force casualties and a 14% reduction in civilian deaths. However, a series of civilian killings, especially of Kashmiri Hindus and non-residents, highlights the fragile security scenario. The Jammu border has experienced frequent infiltration and skirmishes, resulting in casualties among armed forces personnel.

Conclusion

• While the government has achieved success in maintaining public order in J&K, challenges persist, including infiltration by foreign terrorists, targeted killings of civilians, and a resurgence of terrorism in Jammu.

Northeast Theater

• The government's "Act East" policy underscores its commitment to the Northeast, focusing on peace agreements with insurgent groups and their rehabilitation. Efforts to address border disputes among Northeastern states gained momentum after the 2021 Assam-Mizoram border conflict. 
• Negotiations on boundary issues have progressed, and statistics show a 68% decline in violent incidents and a 60% reduction in security force and civilian casualties over the past nine years.
• Notably, Tripura and Meghalaya are now free of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), and AFSPA has been selectively lifted in other states. However, the long-pending Naga Peace Accord remains elusive, and Manipur continues to witness unrest despite efforts by Home Minister Shah.

Conclusion

• The government's initiatives in the Northeast have contributed to a significant reduction in violent incidents, but challenges persist, particularly in achieving a comprehensive peace agreement with the Naga groups and addressing the situation in Manipur.

Jihadist Terrorism

• With the eradication of the major Pakistan-sponsored group, the Indian Mujahideen, the government shifted its focus to the emerging threat of the Islamic State. 
• Surveillance on social media activities discussing Islamic State ideology, counseling potential recruits, and amendments to the NIA Act and UAPA were instrumental in countering this threat. The government also took decisive action by banning the Popular Front of India (PFI).

Conclusion

While significant progress has been made in countering jihadist terrorism, continued vigilance and proactive measures are essential to address evolving security challenges.

Global Nuclear Regulation

Understanding the intricacies of the Global Nuclear Order is crucial in navigating the complex landscape of international relations. This order encapsulates a web of treaties, agreements, norms, and structures governing the use, possession, proliferation, and control of nuclear weapons and energy globally.

Components of the Global Nuclear Order

• Non-Proliferation: Efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to additional states.
• Disarmament Initiatives aimed at reducing and ultimately eliminating global nuclear arsenals.
• Nuclear Material Security: Measures to safeguard nuclear materials, facilities, and technologies from theft, sabotage, or unauthorized access.
• Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy: Promotion of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes such as electricity generation, medicine, agriculture, and industry.
• International Agreements and Treaties: Frameworks like the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) that establish norms, regulations, and obligations.
• International Organizations and Agencies: Bodies like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) overseeing nuclear activities, inspections, and promoting global nuclear safety.

Current Status of Nuclear Weapons

Exploring the recent developments in global nuclear arsenals provides insights into the current state of affairs:

• Modernization and Expansion: Key nuclear-armed states, including the United States, Russia, and China, continue to modernize and expand their arsenals.
• Total Global Inventory: As of January 2023, the global inventory stands at 12,512 warheads, with Russia and the U.S. possessing almost 90%.
• Arms Control Concerns: The suspension of strategic stability dialogues and the New START Treaty halting discussions for a follow-on treaty.

Conventions Regulating the Global Nuclear Order

• Understanding the frameworks shaping the global nuclear landscape is essential:
• Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), 1968: Comprising pillars like non-proliferation, disarmament, and peaceful use of nuclear energy. India's non-signatory status adds complexity.
• Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT): Seeks to ban all nuclear explosions for both civilian and military purposes.
• Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, 2017: Prohibits the possession, use, production, transfer, and deployment of nuclear weapons.
• Export Control Groupings: Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and Missile Technology Control Regimes (MTCR) prevent nuclear fuel export leading to weapons development.
• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Safeguards Agreement: Governance of verification and inspection of nuclear facilities to ensure peaceful purposes.

India's Position in the Global Nuclear Order

India's nuanced stance within the global nuclear framework presents a unique set of challenges:

• Non-Signatory to NPT: India's non-signatory status distinguishes it from many nuclear-armed nations.
• Nuclear Weapons Possession: India's possession of nuclear weapons, advocating for global disarmament while pursuing civilian nuclear energy.
• International Engagement: Despite not signing the NPT, India actively engages in international nuclear forums, emphasizing its non-proliferation record.

Challenges with the Global Nuclear Order

The Global Nuclear Order faces numerous challenges, including:

• Proliferation: Concerns about the spread of nuclear weapons to additional countries, impacting regional stability.
• Arms Control and Disarmament: Challenges in implementing existing agreements and a lack of progress in disarmament efforts.
• Modernization and Technology: Nuclear-armed states continue to modernize arsenals, contributing to uncertainties in strategic stability.
• Emerging Threats and Actors: Risks posed by non-state actors acquiring nuclear materials and technology.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Tensions between nuclear-armed states heighten the risk of nuclear confrontation.
• Safety and Security: Ensuring the safety and security of nuclear materials remains a persistent challenge.

India's Challenges within the Global Nuclear Order

• NPT Status: India's non-signatory status complicates its relationship within the global nuclear order.
• Nuclear Arsenal Expansion: Concerns arise as India continues to expand and modernize its nuclear arsenal.
• Relations with Pakistan and China: The dynamics between India, Pakistan, and China pose significant challenges to regional stability.

The Way Forward

Creating a just, safe, and improved Global Nuclear Order necessitates a multifaceted approach:

• Disarmament and Reduction of Nuclear Weapons: Encouraging significant reductions in nuclear arsenals through international agreements.
• Strengthening Non-Proliferation Efforts: Enhancing international efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons technology.
• Inclusive Dialogue and Multilateral Diplomacy: Encouraging open and inclusive dialogue among all stakeholders to build trust and address concerns.
• Engagement with Emerging Technologies: Monitoring and addressing potential risks associated with emerging technologies.
• Support for New Treaties and Agreements: Advocating for initiatives like the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.
• Education and Public Awareness: Fostering awareness and education regarding the risks and consequences of nuclear weapons.

Conclusion

Navigating the Global Nuclear Order requires a delicate balance between disarmament, non-proliferation, and international cooperation. Understanding the challenges and India's unique position is crucial in shaping a safer and more secure global nuclear landscape.

Space Warfare

India has firmly established itself as a global player in space exploration with the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) leading the charge. From its humble beginnings in 1975 with the launch of Aryabhata, India's first satellite, to ambitious interplanetary missions like Mangalyaan to Mars and Chandrayaan to the Moon, ISRO has been at the forefront of cutting-edge space endeavors.

ISRO's Experimental Satellites

ISRO has launched various small satellites, focusing on research in areas such as Remote Sensing, Atmospheric Studies, Payload Development, Orbit Control, and Recovery Technology. Here are some noteworthy ones:

Aryabhata (1975):

• India's first satellite.
• Completely designed and manufactured in India.

APPLE (1981):

• First indigenous experimental communication satellite.
• Launched into Geostationary Transfer Orbit (GTO).

YOUTHSAT (2011):

• Indo-Russian stellar and atmospheric satellite mission with student participation.

INS-1A & INS-1B (2017):

• Mini satellites launched into Sun Synchronous Polar Orbit.
• Communication Satellites Transforming Connectivity

Communication satellites play a pivotal role in establishing global communication links. ISRO's contributions include:

Indian National Satellite (INSAT) System:

• With 9 operational communication satellites in Geo-stationary orbit, INSAT is a crucial component in the Asia-Pacific region, supporting applications like telecommunications, television broadcasting, weather forecasting, and disaster warning.

GSAT Satellites:

• Developed in the 2000s, GSAT satellites augment INSAT's capacity, providing services like broadband internet and mobile telephony. Noteworthy launches include GSAT-19, GSAT-11, and the heaviest satellite, GSAT-11.

Earth Observation Satellites Unveiling Earth's Secrets

ISRO's Earth observation satellites contribute significantly to fields like agriculture, water resources, urban planning, and disaster management. Some key satellites include:

Bhaskara-I (1979):

• India's first experimental remote sensing satellite.

IRS-P6/RESOURCESAT-1 (2003):

• 10th satellite in the IRS series, enhancing data quality.

EOS-04 (2022):

• Radar Imaging Satellite designed for high-quality images under all weather conditions.
• Navigation Satellites Navigating India's Skies
• ISRO's Navigation satellites, such as the GPS-Aided GEO Augmented Navigation (GAGAN) and Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (NavIC), provide precise positioning services. GAGAN aims to improve air traffic management over Indian airspace, while NavIC covers a range of applications extending up to 1500 kilometers from India's boundary.

Small Satellites: Miniature Marvels

• The Small Satellite project focuses on stand-alone payloads for earth imaging and science missions. Two types of buses, Indian Mini Satellite-1 (IMS-1) and Indian Mini Satellite-2 (IMS-2), offer a versatile platform for various payloads.

ISRO's Space Explorations

• ISRO has ventured into space science and exploration missions, expanding our understanding of the cosmos. Noteworthy missions include:
  • AstroSat: ISRO's first dedicated astronomy mission, studying celestial sources in X-ray, optical, and UV spectral bands.
  • Mangalyaan (2013): India's first interplanetary mission to Mars.
  • Chandrayaan 1 (2008): The first lunar exploration mission, discovering water molecules on the Moon.
  • Chandrayaan 2 (2019): The second lunar exploration mission, with an orbiter providing valuable lunar data.
  • Chandrayaan 3 (2023): A follow-up mission aiming for a soft landing on the lunar south pole.
  • Aditya L1 (2023): The first dedicated solar mission studying the Sun's atmosphere and corona.

Future Space Programs

ISRO's upcoming programs include:

• Gaganyaan: India's first manned space mission, demonstrating human spaceflight capabilities.
• X-ray Polarimeter Satellite (XPoSat): The first dedicated polarimetry mission to study astronomical X-ray sources.
• NASA-ISRO SAR (NISAR) Satellite: An earth-observation satellite developed jointly with NASA.
• SPADEX (Space Docking Experiment): A twin spacecraft mission demonstrating autonomous docking.

Ship Hijacked In Red Sea

In recent times, the Red Sea has become a battleground, not just for regional conflicts but also for global trade. This article explores the repercussions of the Red Sea attacks by Yemen-based Houthi rebels on the world economy, delving into the strategic importance of the Panama Canal and the geopolitical intricacies surrounding the Red Sea crisis.

Red Sea Attacks Unveiled

• Context and Culprits: Amid the chaos of attacks on ships navigating the Red Sea, a vessel en route to India became a victim. The Houthi rebels, engaged in a decade-long civil war with the Yemeni government, orchestrated these attacks to protest Israel's military actions in Gaza.
• Global Ramifications: The significance of the Red Sea trade route for world trade is underscored by the swift response of the US-led maritime security coalition. However, this crisis is not isolated; choke points like the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal pose additional threats to global trade.

Implications for World Trade

• Maritime Transport Disruption: Over 80% of global goods trade relies on maritime transport, making disruptions in shipping routes a critical concern. Developing countries, like India, are particularly vulnerable. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the Panama Canal, both facing blockages, force ships to take longer routes, escalating freight rates.
• Economic Impact on India: The disruption in the Red Sea route is estimated to elevate prices of Indian agricultural products by 10 to 20 percent. With global interest rates rising, higher prices could exacerbate concerns for both global and Indian exporters.

Panama Canal's Dilemma

• Slowing Traffic: Drought conditions have led to a 50% drop in shipping via the Panama Canal. Ships are compelled to use the longer Suez Canal route due to water shortages, resulting in increased transit times and costs.
• Auctions and Concerns: LNG vessels are resorting to costly auctions to expedite their passage through the Panama Canal, with some paying up to $4 million for a slot. Projections suggest a significant reduction in transits, raising fears of potential blockages.

Red Sea Attacks and Oil Flows

• Unique Immunity to Attacks: Global shipping giants, wary of Red Sea attacks, are avoiding transit. However, India's oil imports remain unaffected, primarily due to the perceived alliance between Russia and Iran, supporters of the Houthi rebels.
• Oil Price Impact: Despite disruptions, international oil prices are expected to remain largely unaffected, as global oil production is unlikely to take a direct hit.

Freight Rates Surge

• War Risk Surcharges: Global shipping firms are imposing war risk surcharges on top of regular freight rates. Indian exporters fear a surge of 25-30% in freight rates for shipments to Europe and Africa if the Red Sea trade route's security concerns persist.
• Impact on Indian Exports: The European Union, a significant export destination for India, faces potential labor-intensive sector slowdowns, impacting textiles, gems, and jewelry exports.

Strategic Importance of Panama Canal

• Cornerstone of Global Maritime Transportation: The Panama Canal's strategic significance extends beyond economic benefits. It serves as a vital link between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, contributing to national security, defense capabilities, and logistical resilience.

Key Reasons for Importance

• Vital Strategic Asset
• Shorter Transit Routes
• Time and Cost Savings
• Global Supply Chain Support
• Geopolitical Complexities of the Red Sea

Yemen's Role

• Yemen, a linchpin along the Red Sea route, controls vital passages, allowing Houthi rebels to disrupt maritime activities. The ongoing civil war and Houthi-Israel conflict add layers of complexity.

International Response

• Japan, Britain, and Israel are diplomatically engaged to resolve the seized ship crisis. Russia and Iran's support for Houthi rebels intertwines the situation with the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Media Influence and Shifting Dynamics

• Social Media Battleground: The Israel-Gaza conflict's media coverage has shifted public opinion, particularly among the younger generation. Platforms like TikTok challenge established narratives, impacting U.S. soft power.
• China's Rising Influence: China's neutral peace-brokering model challenges traditional diplomacy. The decline of U.S. soft power is evident, emphasizing the shifting dynamics in global influence.

Conclusion

As the world grapples with geopolitical complexities and potential conflicts, effective leadership becomes crucial. The Gaza-Israel conflict and broader geopolitical shifts highlight the challenges in navigating a rapidly evolving global landscape. The article concludes with a practice question, inviting readers to ponder the multifaceted impact of the Red Sea and Panama Canal crises on world trade.

Prisoner’s Dilemma

This piece draws inspiration from an editorial titled "Rajnath Singh talks about ‘prisoner’s dilemma’ in international relations: What is this concept," featured in the Indian Express. During a speech at the Goa Maritime Conclave, the Indian Defence Minister highlighted the concept of "Prisoner’s Dilemma" to emphasize the importance of nations collaborating rather than pursuing conflicting agendas.

What is the Prisoner’s Dilemma?

• Individual Self-Interest Paradox: The Prisoner’s Dilemma presents a paradox in decision analysis wherein two individuals, acting solely in their self-interests, fail to achieve the optimal outcome.
• Understanding Behavioral Dynamics: This concept is integral to Game Theory, a scientific branch that explores human behavior in diverse situations, revealing strategies to attain the most favorable results.

Prison’s Dilemma in International Relations:

• Analyzing Strategic Challenges: This concept proves valuable in comprehending and analyzing strategic decision-making challenges faced by countries. For instance, in scenarios like an arms race, nations may engage due to mutual fear and mistrust.
• Promoting Cooperation: Its application in international relations aims to identify solutions that foster cooperation, build trust, and reduce risks associated with situations resembling the Prisoner’s Dilemma.

Illustrative Scenario

• Consider two individuals, A and B, involved in a crime and brought in for questioning. If both stay silent, lacking substantial evidence, they face a maximum one-year jail term each. The police offer them a choice: if one confesses, implicating the other, the informant goes free while the other receives a 10-year sentence. If both confess, they both receive 10-year sentences.
• In this dilemma, the question arises: whether to confess or remain silent. The optimal outcome lies in cooperation, resulting in a one-year jail term for both parties.

Conclusion

Optimal results are achieved through cooperation. In geopolitics, nations should establish foundational principles to prevent engagement in an arms race that could ultimately lead to detrimental consequences for their economies and populations.