Population in Mughal India | History Optional for UPSC (Notes) PDF Download

Introduction

Population Statistics in India:

• Population statistics in India are considered reliable only from the census conducted in 1872. Before this, especially during the Mughal Empire, there was a lack of concrete demographic data.
• During Akbar's reign in the Mughal Empire, there were efforts to gather population data. However, the detailed accounts ordered by Akbar have not survived. The Ai’n-i Akbari, despite containing various statistical information, does not provide a population estimate for Akbar’s Empire.
• Modern scholars have differing views on the population size of Mughal India. Initially, a figure of 100 million was commonly accepted. However, further research led to a revised estimate of 140 to 150 million for the entire Indian subcontinent, with around 100 million in Mughal territory.
• Demographic factors are crucial in studying economic history. In pre-modern societies, population growth is often seen as a key indicator of economic growth. Therefore, estimating the Indian population using available quantitative data is important.
• Since no census was conducted during the Mughal Empire, estimates rely on alternative data sources. The Ain-i-Akbari, written by Abul Fazl, is one of the richest sources of such data.

Moreland’s estimate

On the Basis of the Extent of Cultivated Area:

• Moreland made the first attempt to estimate the population with the help of the data of the A’in-i Akbari.
• He tried to determine the population of Northern India on the basis of the figures given in the A’in.
• This work gives figures for arazi(measured area) for revenue purposes, which he took to represent the gross cropped area.
• Moreland attempted to use these statistics, first, to work out total area under cultivation at the end of 16th century, and then to estimate on this basis total population of Mughal Empire.
• Moreland assumed that arazi represented the gross cropped area.
• He compared the arazi with the gross cultivation at the beginning of 20th century and assuming a constant correspondence between the extent of cultivation and the size of the population right through the intervening period.
• On this basis, he calculated population from Multan to Monghyr as 30 to 40 million at the end of the 16th century.

Applying Civilian: Soldier Ratio (For the Deccan and South India):

• Moreland took as the basis of his calculations the military strength of the Vijaynagar Empire and Deccan Sultanates.
• Taking a rather arbitrary ratio of 1:30 between the soldiers and civilian population, he estimated the population of the reign at 30 million.
• After calculating the population of other territories lying within the pre-1947 limits of India apart from two regions, he put the population of Akbar’s Empire in 1600 at 60 million, and of India as a whole at 100 million.
• These estimates received wide acceptance. Nevertheless, Moreland’s basic assumptions (and therefore his figures) are questionable.

Objection to Moreland’s estimate:

• He assumed that arazi represented the gross cropped i.e. measurement was made of the cultivated land only.
• But it has been shown on the basis of textual and statistical evidence that the arazi of the A’in was a measured area for revenue purposes which included, besides the cultivated area current, fallows and some cultivable and uncultivable waste.
• Moreover, measurement by no means was completed everywhere.
• His assumption that the cultivated land per capital in 1600 same as in 1900 is questionable.
• For Deccan and South India, the army: civilian ratio = 30 is arbitrary which was arrived by the comparison with the pre-World War I modern states like France and Germany.
• This is apart from the fact that Moreland’s count of the number of troops in the Deccan kingdoms was based on very general statements by European travellers.

Kingsley Davis’s estimate

Moreland's Estimate of India's Population:

• Moreland's population estimate for India was criticized for giving inadequate weight to areas outside the two main regions he focused on.
• To address this, Kingsley Davis increased Moreland's estimate for the entire population of India to 125 million in his book 'Population of India and Pakistan.'
• While Davis's adjustment was a step in the right direction, it did not fully resolve the more significant issues with Moreland's method that had been pointed out earlier.

Ashok Desai’s estimate (by using total and per capita land revenue)

Desai's Comparison of Purchasing Power and Food Consumption in Akbar's Time:

• Desai compared the purchasing power of the lowest urban wages using prices and wages from the A'in and then with all-India average prices and wages from the early 1960s.
• He used yields and crop rates from Abul Fazl to measure total food consumption in Akbar's time, which was only 1/5th of the consumption in the 1960s.
• Desai calculated the average consumption at the end of the 16th century for major agricultural items.
• By analyzing these data, he estimated the area under various crops per capita and multiplied it by revenue rates to determine per capita land revenue.
• Dividing the total jama(total land revenue) by the estimated per capita land revenue led to a population estimate of about 65 million for the Empire, aligning with Moreland's estimate.

Objections to Desai's Estimate:

• Shireen Moosvi argued that comparing prices and wages from the A'in, which reflect the imperial camp (Agra and possibly Lahore), with modern all-India averages is inappropriate.
• Moosvi also pointed out that the A'in's standard crop rates applied to areas near Delhi and are not comparable to all-India yields.
• Desai's method of dividing the total jama by the hypothetical land-tax per capita did not account for regional differences in tax incidence.
• Another flaw in Desai's approach was treating jama as equal to total land revenue when it likely represented an estimate of net income from tax realization by jagirdars.
• Additionally, the pattern of consumption in Akbar's India was not comparable to that of the 1960s.

Shireen Moosvi’s estimate

• Despite objections to Moreland's estimates, using the extent of cultivation to estimate population remains valid.
• The A'in's arazi figures can help determine the extent of cultivation in 1601.
• Shireen Moosvi, in her book "Economy of the Mughal Empire," analyzed cultivable and uncultivable waste in the arazi to draw conclusions about land use.
• She found that the average agricultural holding in 1600 was 107% larger than in 1900.
• The total area under cultivation in the Mughal Empire in 1601 was 50% to 55% of what it was in the early 20th century.
• These estimates are supported by Ifran Habib's analysis of village numbers and sizes in the 17th century.
• Moosvi estimated the urban population at 15% of the total and the rural population at 85%.
• She modified Desai's method to address criticisms, estimating India’s population in the 17th century at 140 to 150 million and the population of Akbar's Empire at 100 million.

Average rate of population growth

Population Growth in India (1601-1872):

• Population in 1601: Approximately 145 million.
• Population in 1871 (first census): Approximately 225 million.
• Compound annual rate of population growth (1601-1872):0.21% per annum.

Population Growth (1872-1901):

• Rate of population growth: 0.37% per annum.
• Higher than the long-term rate (1601-1871) but still considered not very high.

Comparison with Europe:

• Population growth rates in the Mughal Empire were not exceptionally sluggish compared to Europe.
• Rate of 0.21% indicates some capacity for national savings and increased food production.

Factors Affecting Growth:

• Slow growth attributed to natural calamities like famines and man-made factors such as heavy revenue demands.
• Overall annual rate of growth of 0.2% for 1601-1801 suggests the Mughal economy was not static.

Population Growth as Economic Indicator:

• Population growth seen as a measure of pre-capitalistic economic efficiency.
• Mughal economy was dynamic with population growth between 36% and 44% over 200 years.

Composition of population: Rural and Urban

• Irfan Habib attempted to estimate the urban population based on the consumption patterns of agricultural produce.
• The Mughal ruling class typically claimed about half of the total agricultural produce, but not all of it was taken away from the rural sector.
• Habib assumed that around a quarter of the total agricultural produce reached the towns. He also accounted for the higher ratio of raw materials in the agricultural produce consumed in the towns.
• Based on these considerations, he estimated the urban population to be over 15 percent of the total population.

Estimated Population in Various Towns

• According to Ahmad, there were 120 major towns and 3,200 smaller townships in the empire.
• Population Estimates: If we assume the total population of Akbar's Empire was around 100 million and that 15 percent of this was urban, this would mean about 15 million people living in towns.
• Average Town Size: Dividing the urban population by the number of townships gives an average of about 5,000 people per township.
• However, there were also some very large towns in the Mughal Empire. European travelers from that time estimated the populations of major cities as follows:
• Agra: Estimated population of 500,000 in 1609.
• Delhi: Estimated population of 500,000 between 1659 and 1666.
• Lahore: Estimated population of 400,000 in 1581.
• Thatta: Estimated population of 225,000 between 1631 and 1635.
• Ahmedabad: Estimated population of 100,000 to 200,000 in 1663.
• Surat: Estimated population of 200,000 in 1663.
• Patna: Estimated population of 200,000 in 1631.
• Dacca: Estimated population of 200,000 in 1630.
• Masulipatam: Estimated population of 200,000 in 1672.