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Probability: Solved Examples - 1

Q1: Find the probability that a vowel selected at random from the 5 vowels is an 'i'.
(a) 4/5
(b) 1/3
(c) 1/5
(d) 1/2
Ans:
(c)
Sol: Here, n(S ) = {a, e, i, o, u} = 5
and E = Event of selecting the vowel i = {i}
So, n(E) = 1
Probability: Solved Examples - 1


Q2: When three coins are tossed together, the probability that all coins have the same face up, is
(a) 1/3
(b) 1/6
(c) 1/8
(d) 1/12
Ans:
(c)
Sol: Probability of head or a tail on upper side of a coin = 1/2
∴ Probability of getting same face on all three coins
= 1/2 × 1/2 × 1/2 = 1/8 


Q3: Two unbiased dice are thrown simultaneously. The probability of getting the sum divisible by 3, is
(a) 11/36
(b) 1/3
(c) 13/36
(d) 17/36
Ans:
(b)
Sol: Total number of events, n (S ) = 6 × 6 = 36
Number of ways of getting the sum divisible by 3,
n (E) = (1, 2 ),(2 , 1), (1, 5),(2 , 4),(3, 3) (4, 2),(5, 1),(3, 6),(4, 5) (5, 4),(6, 3),(6, 6) = 12
Probability: Solved Examples - 1


Q4: A and B aim a target. The probability that A hits the target is 5/7 and B hits the target is 7/10. What is the probability that exactly one of them hits the target?
(a) 21/10
(b) 29/70
(c) 31/70
(d) 33/70
Ans: 
(b)
Sol: Given, probability that A hits the target, P( A) = 5/7
So, probability that A do not hit the target,
Probability: Solved Examples - 1
and probability that B hits the targets, P(B) = 7/10
So,  probability that B do not hit the target
Probability: Solved Examples - 1
∴ Probability that exactly one of them hits the targets
Probability: Solved Examples - 1


Q5: A speaks truth in 60% of the cases and B in 80% of the cases. In what percentage of cases are they likely to contradict each other, narrating the same incident? 
(a) 70% 
(b) 36% 
(c) 22% 
(d) 44%
Ans: 
(d)
Sol: Let A be the event that A speaks the truth and B be the event that B speaks the truth
Then,
Probability: Solved Examples - 1
Probability: Solved Examples - 1
and Probability: Solved Examples - 1
∴ P (A and B contradict each other)
= P [( A speaks the truth and B tells a lie) or ( A tells a lie and B speaks the truth)]
Probability: Solved Examples - 1


Q6: There are 8 blue and 4 white balls in a bag. A ball is drawn at random without replacing it, another ball is drawn. Then, find the probability that both the balls drawn are blue.
(a) 7/33
(b) 14/33
(c) 11/33
(d) 2/33
Ans:
(b)
Sol: Total number of balls in the bag = 12
Probability of drawing one blue ball in the first draw,
Probability: Solved Examples - 1
After the first draw of a blue ball, there are 7 blue and 4 white balls in the bag.
Then, total number of the balls in the bag is 11.
Probability of drawing one blue ball in the second draw,
Probability: Solved Examples - 1
∴ Probability that both are blue,
Probability: Solved Examples - 1


Q7: 100 students appeared for two examinations, 60 passed the first, 50 passed the second and 30 passed the both. The probability that a student selected at random has failed in both the examinations, is 
(a) 0.3 
(b) 0.2 
(c) 0.4 
(d) 0.1
Ans:
(b)
Sol: 
Probability: Solved Examples - 1
Total passed students = 30 + 30 + 20 = 80
Failed students = 100 - 80 = 20
∴ P (students failed in both exams) = 20/100 = 0.2


Q8: A complete cycle of a traffic light takes 60 s. During each cycle, the light is green for 25 s, yellow for 5 s and red for 30 s. At a randomly chosen time, the probability that the light will not be green, is
(a) 1/3 
(b) 1/4 
(c) 5/12 
(d) 7/12
Ans:
(d)
Sol: Time taken for complete cycle = 60 s
Probability that light will be green
Probability: Solved Examples - 1
∴ Probability that light will not be green = 1- 5/12 = 7/12


Q9: A student has 60% chance of passing in English and 54% chance of passing in both English and Mathematics. What is the per cent probability that he will fail in Mathematics? 
(a) 12 
(b) 36 
(c) 4
(d) 10
Ans:
(d)
Sol: Chance of passing in English = 60% = 0.6
Chance of passing in English and Mathematics = 54% = 0.54
Let chance of passing in Mathematics be x.
Since, passing in Mathematics and English are independent events, therefore, 
Chance of passing in English and Mathematics = Chance of passing in English × Chance of passing in Mathematics
⇒ 0.54 = 0.6 × x ⇒ x = 0.9
∴ Chance of failing in Mathematics = 1 - 0.9 = 0.1
Probability% = 0.1 × 100 = 10%


Q10: Four different objects 1, 2, 3 and 4 are distributed at random in four places marked 1, 2, 3 and 4 . What is the probability that none of the objects occupy the place corresponding to its number? 
(a) 17/24 
(b) 3/8 
(c) 1/2 
(d) 5/8
Ans:
(c)
Sol: Let the four places be
Probability: Solved Examples - 1
Now, object 1 cannot occupy the place 1.
Suppose object 2 occupies the place Probability: Solved Examples - 1
Then, other placements can be done in 6 ways as follows:
Probability: Solved Examples - 1
Here, out of six ways, only three are permissible, because (i), (iii) and (vi) are not permissible because of the non-fulfilment of Eq. (i).
Hence, the probability is = 3/6 = 1/2


Q11: From a pack of 52 playing cards, two cards are drawn together at random. Calculate the probability of both the cards being king. 
(a)  1/15 
(b) 25/57 
(c)  35/256 
(d) None of these
Ans:
(d)
Sol: Two cards can be drawn from a pack of 52 playing cards in 52C2 ways.
i.e.
Probability: Solved Examples - 1
The event that two kings appear in a single draw of cards is 4C2 ways, i.e. 6 ways.
∴ Probability that the two cards drawn from a pack of 52 cards are kings = 6/1326 = 1/221


Q12: In a bag containing three balls, a white ball was placed and then one ball was taken out at random. What is the probability that the extracted ball would turn on to be white, if all possible hypothesis concerning the colour of the balls that were initially in the bag were equally possible? 
(a) 5/8 
(b) 3/4 
(c) 1/2 
(d) 3/8
Ans: 
(a)
Sol: Since, all possible hypothesis regarding the colour of the balls are equally likely, therefore these could be 3 white balls, initially in the bag.
∴ Required probability,  
Probability: Solved Examples - 1


Q13: In his wardrobe, Girdhari has 3 trousers. One of them is grey, the second is blue and the third is brown. In his wardrobe, he also has 4 shirts. One of them is grey and the other 3 are white. He opens his wardrobe in the dark and picks out one shirt trouser pair without examining the colour. What is the probability that neither the shirt nor the trouser is grey? 
(a) 1/12 
(b) 1/6 
(c) 1/4 
(d) 1/2
Ans:
(d)
Sol: Probability that trouser is grey = 1/3
Probability that trouser is not grey = 1 - 1/3 = 2/3
Probability that shirt is grey = 1/4
Probability that shirt is not grey = 1 - 1/4 = 3/4
∴ Required probability =  2/3 × 3/4 = 1/2


Q14: A bag contains 5 white, 7 red and 8 black balls. If 4 balls are drawn one by one with replacement, then what is the probability that all are white?
(a) 1/256
(b) 1/16
(c) 4/20
(d) 4/8
Ans:
(a)
Sol: Number of white balls in the bag = 5
Total number of balls in the bag = 5 + 7 + 8 = 20
Probability that first ball drawn is white =Probability: Solved Examples - 1
Since, balls are drawn with replacement, hence all the four events will have equal probability.
∴ Required probability Probability: Solved Examples - 1


Q15: Two dice are thrown simultaneously. What is the probability of getting a number other than 4 on any dice?
(a) 25/36
(b) 1/3
(c) 17/36
(d) 2/3
Ans: 
(a)
Sol: Total number of events, n (S ) = 6 × 6 = 36
E = Event of getting a number other than 4 on any dice
n(E ) = {(1, 1),(1, 2 ),(1, 3),(1, 5),(1, 6),(2, 1),(2 , 2 ),(2, 3),(2, 5), 
(2, 6),(3,1),(3,2 ),(3, 3),(3, 5),(3, 6),(5,1),(5,2 ),(5, 3) (5, 5),(5, 6), (6,1),(6,2 ),(6, 3),(6, 5),(6, 6)} = 25
Probability: Solved Examples - 1

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FAQs on Probability: Solved Examples - 1

1. What is the importance of probability in the UPSC exam?
Ans. Probability is an essential topic in the UPSC exam as it tests a candidate's analytical skills and understanding of statistical concepts. It is often included in the quantitative aptitude section, where candidates must apply probability theories to solve problems. A good grasp of probability can enhance problem-solving abilities and boost overall performance in the exam.
2. How can I prepare for probability questions in the UPSC exam?
Ans. To prepare for probability questions in the UPSC exam, candidates should start by understanding the fundamental concepts, including events, outcomes, and probability formulas. Practicing solved examples and previous years’ question papers can help solidify understanding. Additionally, using textbooks and online resources for practice problems can improve problem-solving speed and accuracy.
3. What are some common types of probability problems asked in UPSC exams?
Ans. Common types of probability problems in the UPSC exams include calculating the probability of single and multiple events, conditional probability, and problems involving combinations and permutations. Questions may also involve real-life scenarios, such as drawing cards from a deck or rolling dice.
4. Are there any specific formulas I should memorize for probability in the UPSC exam?
Ans. Yes, some key formulas to memorize for probability include the basic probability formula: P(E) = Number of favorable outcomes / Total number of outcomes, the addition rule for mutually exclusive events, and the multiplication rule for independent events. Familiarity with combinations (nCr) and permutations (nPr) formulas is also beneficial for solving complex probability problems.
5. How can I manage my time effectively while solving probability questions in the UPSC exam?
Ans. To manage time effectively while solving probability questions in the UPSC exam, candidates should practice time-bound mock tests to improve speed. Familiarizing oneself with different types of probability problems can help in quickly identifying the best approach. Additionally, learning shortcuts and techniques for calculations can save valuable time during the exam.
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