Daily Analysis of 'The Hindu' - 10th April, 2020 | Additional Study Material for UPSC PDF Download

 Page 1


A double whammy for India-Gulf economic ties
?The Gulf region is at the epicentre of a perfect storm
1. COVID-19 pandemic
2. Oil price meltdown
?India has a vital relations with the 8 Gulf countries.
?The s i tu a tion’ s impact on bilateral economic ties needs to
be anticipated and managed.
?Lockdown is curbing the consumption of hydrocarbons.
?A Goldman Sachs report published on March 30 estimated
that COVID-19 had lowered the world crude consumption by
28 million bpd.
Mahesh Sachdev
Former Ambassador
Page 2


A double whammy for India-Gulf economic ties
?The Gulf region is at the epicentre of a perfect storm
1. COVID-19 pandemic
2. Oil price meltdown
?India has a vital relations with the 8 Gulf countries.
?The s i tu a tion’ s impact on bilateral economic ties needs to
be anticipated and managed.
?Lockdown is curbing the consumption of hydrocarbons.
?A Goldman Sachs report published on March 30 estimated
that COVID-19 had lowered the world crude consumption by
28 million bpd.
Mahesh Sachdev
Former Ambassador
Page 3


A double whammy for India-Gulf economic ties
?The Gulf region is at the epicentre of a perfect storm
1. COVID-19 pandemic
2. Oil price meltdown
?India has a vital relations with the 8 Gulf countries.
?The s i tu a tion’ s impact on bilateral economic ties needs to
be anticipated and managed.
?Lockdown is curbing the consumption of hydrocarbons.
?A Goldman Sachs report published on March 30 estimated
that COVID-19 had lowered the world crude consumption by
28 million bpd.
Mahesh Sachdev
Former Ambassador
?OPEC+ failed to reach a production-curtailing
strategy
?As a result, OPEC+ unravelled with each producer
chasing a higher share in a collapsing market.
?In a rare joint statement on March 16, the heads
of OPEC and the International Energy Agency
(IEA) warned that developing coun trie s’ oil and gas
revenues will decline by 50% to 85% in 2020 with
potentially far-reaching economic and social
consequences.
?Saudi Ar ab ia’ s fiscal deficit expected to cross 8%
in 2020
Page 4


A double whammy for India-Gulf economic ties
?The Gulf region is at the epicentre of a perfect storm
1. COVID-19 pandemic
2. Oil price meltdown
?India has a vital relations with the 8 Gulf countries.
?The s i tu a tion’ s impact on bilateral economic ties needs to
be anticipated and managed.
?Lockdown is curbing the consumption of hydrocarbons.
?A Goldman Sachs report published on March 30 estimated
that COVID-19 had lowered the world crude consumption by
28 million bpd.
Mahesh Sachdev
Former Ambassador
?OPEC+ failed to reach a production-curtailing
strategy
?As a result, OPEC+ unravelled with each producer
chasing a higher share in a collapsing market.
?In a rare joint statement on March 16, the heads
of OPEC and the International Energy Agency
(IEA) warned that developing coun trie s’ oil and gas
revenues will decline by 50% to 85% in 2020 with
potentially far-reaching economic and social
consequences.
?Saudi Ar ab ia’ s fiscal deficit expected to cross 8%
in 2020
?Bilateral economic ties are strong: the India-Gulf
trade stood around $162 billion in 2018-19, being
nearly a fifth of India’ s global trade.
?It was dominated by import of crude oil and
natural gas worth nearly $75 billion, meeting
nearly 65% of India’ s total requirements.
?Some of these countries have large Indian
investments and some have planned large
investments in India.
?The number of Indian expatriates in the Gulf
states is about nine million, and they remitted
nearly $40 billion back home.
?The fresh recruitment stops, salaries are either lowered or
stalled, taxes raised and localisation drives launched.
Page 5


A double whammy for India-Gulf economic ties
?The Gulf region is at the epicentre of a perfect storm
1. COVID-19 pandemic
2. Oil price meltdown
?India has a vital relations with the 8 Gulf countries.
?The s i tu a tion’ s impact on bilateral economic ties needs to
be anticipated and managed.
?Lockdown is curbing the consumption of hydrocarbons.
?A Goldman Sachs report published on March 30 estimated
that COVID-19 had lowered the world crude consumption by
28 million bpd.
Mahesh Sachdev
Former Ambassador
?OPEC+ failed to reach a production-curtailing
strategy
?As a result, OPEC+ unravelled with each producer
chasing a higher share in a collapsing market.
?In a rare joint statement on March 16, the heads
of OPEC and the International Energy Agency
(IEA) warned that developing coun trie s’ oil and gas
revenues will decline by 50% to 85% in 2020 with
potentially far-reaching economic and social
consequences.
?Saudi Ar ab ia’ s fiscal deficit expected to cross 8%
in 2020
?Bilateral economic ties are strong: the India-Gulf
trade stood around $162 billion in 2018-19, being
nearly a fifth of India’ s global trade.
?It was dominated by import of crude oil and
natural gas worth nearly $75 billion, meeting
nearly 65% of India’ s total requirements.
?Some of these countries have large Indian
investments and some have planned large
investments in India.
?The number of Indian expatriates in the Gulf
states is about nine million, and they remitted
nearly $40 billion back home.
?The fresh recruitment stops, salaries are either lowered or
stalled, taxes raised and localisation drives launched.
?India needs to make some contingency plans in
consultation with the individual countries.
?It should do whatever it takes to enhance their
capacity to handle COVID-19 cases among the
Indian expatriates.
? India’ s missions there also need to monitor the
situation and try to avoid panic among its
nationals.
?In the longer run, it is quite clear that we need to
find new drivers for the India-Gulf synergy.