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Probability of a 10-year flood to occur at least once in the next 4 years is
- a)25%
- b)35%
- c)50%
- d)65%
Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer?
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Probability of a 10-year flood to occur at least once in the next 4 ye...
Probability of a 10-year flood to occur at least once in the next 4 years
Definition of a 10-year flood
A 10-year flood is a flood that has a 10% chance of occurring in any given year. It is also known as a 1 in 10 year flood or a 10% annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood.
Formula for calculating the probability of a 10-year flood occurring in a given time period
The formula for calculating the probability of a 10-year flood occurring in a given time period is:
P = 1 - (1 - 0.1)^n
where P is the probability of a 10-year flood occurring at least once in the time period, n is the number of years in the time period, and 0.1 is the probability of a 10-year flood occurring in any given year.
Calculation of the probability of a 10-year flood occurring at least once in the next 4 years
Using the above formula, we can calculate the probability of a 10-year flood occurring at least once in the next 4 years as:
P = 1 - (1 - 0.1)^4
P = 1 - 0.6561
P = 0.3439 or 34.39%
Therefore, the probability of a 10-year flood occurring at least once in the next 4 years is 34.39%, which is closest to option 'B' - 35%.
Definition of a 10-year flood
A 10-year flood is a flood that has a 10% chance of occurring in any given year. It is also known as a 1 in 10 year flood or a 10% annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood.
Formula for calculating the probability of a 10-year flood occurring in a given time period
The formula for calculating the probability of a 10-year flood occurring in a given time period is:
P = 1 - (1 - 0.1)^n
where P is the probability of a 10-year flood occurring at least once in the time period, n is the number of years in the time period, and 0.1 is the probability of a 10-year flood occurring in any given year.
Calculation of the probability of a 10-year flood occurring at least once in the next 4 years
Using the above formula, we can calculate the probability of a 10-year flood occurring at least once in the next 4 years as:
P = 1 - (1 - 0.1)^4
P = 1 - 0.6561
P = 0.3439 or 34.39%
Therefore, the probability of a 10-year flood occurring at least once in the next 4 years is 34.39%, which is closest to option 'B' - 35%.
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Community Answer
Probability of a 10-year flood to occur at least once in the next 4 ye...
P=1-(1-1/10)^4
P=0.35
P=0.35
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Probability of a 10-year flood to occur at least once in the next 4 years isa)25%b)35%c)50%d)65%Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer?
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