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The probability that a 10 year return period flood will occur atleast once in the next 4 year is :
  • a)
    25%
  • b)
    35%
  • c)
    50%
  • d)
    65%
Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer?
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Probability of a 10-year return period flood in 4 years
The probability of a 10-year return period flood occurring in a given year is 1/10 or 0.1. This means that in any given year, there is a 10% chance of a 10-year return period flood happening.

Calculating the probability over 4 years
To calculate the probability of a 10-year return period flood occurring at least once in the next 4 years, we need to calculate the probability that it does not occur in all 4 years.
The probability of the flood not occurring in a given year is 1 - 0.1 = 0.9. Therefore, the probability of the flood not occurring in any of the 4 years is 0.9^4 = 0.6561.

Calculating the probability of the flood occurring at least once
To find the probability of the flood occurring at least once in the next 4 years, we subtract the probability of it not occurring in all 4 years from 1.
1 - 0.6561 = 0.3439 or 34.39%.
Therefore, the probability of a 10-year return period flood occurring at least once in the next 4 years is approximately 34.39%, which is closest to option B - 35%.
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The probability that a 10 year returnperiod flood will occur atleast oncein the next 4 year is :a)25%b)35%c)50%d)65%Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer?
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