In a forecasting situation, exponential smoothing with a smoothingcons...
Exponential Smoothing Forecasting with Smoothing Constant a = 0.2
In this question, we are given that exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant a = 0.2 is to be used for forecasting. We are also given that the demand for nth period is 500 and the actual demand for the corresponding period turned out to be 450. We need to calculate the forecast for the (n - 1)th period.
Formula for Exponential Smoothing
The formula for exponential smoothing is:
Ft = αAt-1 + (1 - α)Ft-1
- Ft: Forecast for period t
- At-1: Actual demand for period t-1
- Ft-1: Forecast for period t-1
- α: Smoothing constant
Calculating the Forecast
Using the formula for exponential smoothing, we can calculate the forecast for the (n - 1)th period:
F(n-1) = αA(n-2) + (1 - α)F(n-2)
Substituting the given values:
F(n-1) = 0.2 x 500 + 0.8 x F(n-2)
We do not have the value of F(n-2), but we can use the given information to calculate it:
F(n-2) = 0.2 x 450 + 0.8 x F(n-3)
Substituting the value of F(n-2) in the first equation:
F(n-1) = 0.2 x 500 + 0.8 x (0.2 x 450 + 0.8 x F(n-4))
We do not have the value of F(n-4), but we can continue this process until we get to a point where we have a known value for F:
F(n-1) = 0.2 x 500 + 0.8 x (0.2 x 450 + 0.8 x (0.2 x 500 + 0.8 x F))
Solving this equation, we get:
F(n-1) = 470
Therefore, the forecast for the (n - 1)th period is 470.