Which one of the following is a qualitative technique of demand foreca...
The qualitative technique of demand forecasting refers to the use of subjective judgments, opinions, and expert knowledge to estimate future demand. It relies on non-quantitative factors and is often used when there is a lack of historical data or when the future is uncertain.
The correct answer to the question is option 'C', the Delphi technique.
The Delphi Technique:
The Delphi technique is a widely used qualitative method for demand forecasting. It involves obtaining the opinions and judgments of a group of experts through a series of questionnaires or interviews. The experts are typically chosen based on their knowledge and experience in the relevant field.
The Delphi technique follows a structured and iterative process, aiming to reach a consensus among the experts. Here is a step-by-step explanation of the Delphi technique:
1. Selection of Experts: A group of experts is selected based on their expertise and knowledge in the area of demand forecasting.
2. Initial Questionnaire: The experts are provided with a questionnaire that includes open-ended questions about future demand. The experts provide their opinions and predictions independently.
3. Feedback: The responses from the experts are compiled and summarized without revealing individual identities. The experts are then provided with the consolidated feedback, including the range of forecasts and any areas of disagreement.
4. Second Round: The experts are given the opportunity to revise their initial responses based on the feedback. They can also provide comments or additional information to support their revised forecasts.
5. Consensus Building: The process of obtaining individual responses, providing feedback, and allowing for revisions is repeated for multiple rounds. The aim is to converge towards a consensus forecast by identifying areas of agreement and resolving areas of disagreement.
6. Final Forecast: Once a consensus is reached among the experts, the final forecast is determined. This forecast is considered to be more reliable and accurate due to the involvement of multiple experts and the iterative nature of the process.
The Delphi technique is particularly useful when there is limited historical data or when the future is uncertain. It allows for the incorporation of expert opinions and judgments, which can provide valuable insights and enhance the accuracy of the demand forecast.
In conclusion, the Delphi technique is a qualitative technique of demand forecasting that involves obtaining the opinions and judgments of a group of experts. It follows a structured and iterative process to reach a consensus forecast.
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