Mechanical Engineering Exam  >  Mechanical Engineering Questions  >  In a forecasting model, at the end of period ... Start Learning for Free
In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value for period 14 is 75. Actual value in the periods 14 to 16 are constant at 100. If the assumed simple exponential smoothing parameter is 0.5, then the MSE at the end of period 16 is: 
  • a)
    820.31  
  • b)
    273.44  
  • c)
    43.75  
  • d)
    14.58 
Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer?
Verified Answer
In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value ...

View all questions of this test
Most Upvoted Answer
In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value ...
Given Information:
- Forecasted value for period 14 = 75
- Actual value in periods 14 to 16 = 100
- Simple exponential smoothing parameter (alpha) = 0.5

Mean Squared Error (MSE) Formula:
The MSE is calculated by taking the average of the squared differences between the forecasted values and the actual values over a given period. The formula for MSE is:
MSE = (1/n) * Σ(F_t - A_t)^2

Where:
- MSE = Mean Squared Error
- n = Number of periods
- F_t = Forecasted value at time t
- A_t = Actual value at time t

Calculation:
To calculate the MSE at the end of period 16, we need to consider the forecasted and actual values for periods 14 to 16.

Step 1: Calculate the forecasted values for periods 15 and 16 using the simple exponential smoothing formula:
F_15 = F_14 + α * (A_14 - F_14)
F_15 = 75 + 0.5 * (100 - 75) = 87.5

F_16 = F_15 + α * (A_15 - F_15)
F_16 = 87.5 + 0.5 * (100 - 87.5) = 93.75

Step 2: Calculate the MSE using the forecasted values and the actual values for periods 14 to 16:
MSE = (1/3) * [(F_14 - A_14)^2 + (F_15 - A_15)^2 + (F_16 - A_16)^2]
MSE = (1/3) * [(75 - 100)^2 + (87.5 - 100)^2 + (93.75 - 100)^2]
MSE = (1/3) * [(-25)^2 + (-12.5)^2 + (-6.25)^2]
MSE = (1/3) * [625 + 156.25 + 39.06]
MSE = (1/3) * 820.31
MSE ≈ 273.44

Therefore, the correct answer is option B) 273.44.
Attention Mechanical Engineering Students!
To make sure you are not studying endlessly, EduRev has designed Mechanical Engineering study material, with Structured Courses, Videos, & Test Series. Plus get personalized analysis, doubt solving and improvement plans to achieve a great score in Mechanical Engineering.
Explore Courses for Mechanical Engineering exam

Top Courses for Mechanical Engineering

In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value for period 14 is 75. Actual value in the periods 14 to 16 are constant at 100. If the assumed simple exponential smoothing parameter is 0.5, then the MSE at the end of period 16 is:a)820.31 b)273.44 c)43.75 d)14.58Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer?
Question Description
In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value for period 14 is 75. Actual value in the periods 14 to 16 are constant at 100. If the assumed simple exponential smoothing parameter is 0.5, then the MSE at the end of period 16 is:a)820.31 b)273.44 c)43.75 d)14.58Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer? for Mechanical Engineering 2024 is part of Mechanical Engineering preparation. The Question and answers have been prepared according to the Mechanical Engineering exam syllabus. Information about In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value for period 14 is 75. Actual value in the periods 14 to 16 are constant at 100. If the assumed simple exponential smoothing parameter is 0.5, then the MSE at the end of period 16 is:a)820.31 b)273.44 c)43.75 d)14.58Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer? covers all topics & solutions for Mechanical Engineering 2024 Exam. Find important definitions, questions, meanings, examples, exercises and tests below for In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value for period 14 is 75. Actual value in the periods 14 to 16 are constant at 100. If the assumed simple exponential smoothing parameter is 0.5, then the MSE at the end of period 16 is:a)820.31 b)273.44 c)43.75 d)14.58Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer?.
Solutions for In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value for period 14 is 75. Actual value in the periods 14 to 16 are constant at 100. If the assumed simple exponential smoothing parameter is 0.5, then the MSE at the end of period 16 is:a)820.31 b)273.44 c)43.75 d)14.58Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer? in English & in Hindi are available as part of our courses for Mechanical Engineering. Download more important topics, notes, lectures and mock test series for Mechanical Engineering Exam by signing up for free.
Here you can find the meaning of In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value for period 14 is 75. Actual value in the periods 14 to 16 are constant at 100. If the assumed simple exponential smoothing parameter is 0.5, then the MSE at the end of period 16 is:a)820.31 b)273.44 c)43.75 d)14.58Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer? defined & explained in the simplest way possible. Besides giving the explanation of In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value for period 14 is 75. Actual value in the periods 14 to 16 are constant at 100. If the assumed simple exponential smoothing parameter is 0.5, then the MSE at the end of period 16 is:a)820.31 b)273.44 c)43.75 d)14.58Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer?, a detailed solution for In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value for period 14 is 75. Actual value in the periods 14 to 16 are constant at 100. If the assumed simple exponential smoothing parameter is 0.5, then the MSE at the end of period 16 is:a)820.31 b)273.44 c)43.75 d)14.58Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer? has been provided alongside types of In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value for period 14 is 75. Actual value in the periods 14 to 16 are constant at 100. If the assumed simple exponential smoothing parameter is 0.5, then the MSE at the end of period 16 is:a)820.31 b)273.44 c)43.75 d)14.58Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer? theory, EduRev gives you an ample number of questions to practice In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value for period 14 is 75. Actual value in the periods 14 to 16 are constant at 100. If the assumed simple exponential smoothing parameter is 0.5, then the MSE at the end of period 16 is:a)820.31 b)273.44 c)43.75 d)14.58Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer? tests, examples and also practice Mechanical Engineering tests.
Explore Courses for Mechanical Engineering exam

Top Courses for Mechanical Engineering

Explore Courses
Signup for Free!
Signup to see your scores go up within 7 days! Learn & Practice with 1000+ FREE Notes, Videos & Tests.
10M+ students study on EduRev