India and South Asia - 4 - UPSC PDF Download

India-Maldives Relations: A Brief History and Overview

India and Maldives share deep-rooted ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious, and commercial links that date back to ancient times. The two nations enjoy cordial and multi-dimensional relations, with India being among the first countries to recognize Maldives after it gained independence from British rule in 1965.

• Establishment of Diplomatic Relations: India was the first country to establish diplomatic relations with Maldives, opening its mission in Male in 1972. Since then, the two nations have maintained friendly ties, and India has played a significant role in the development and security of Maldives.
• 1988 Operation Cactus: In 1988, India provided naval assistance to Maldives during Operation Cactus, in response to a request from the Maldivian government to help quell a domestic uprising.
• 2004 Tsunami and Indian Support: Following the devastating tsunami in 2004, India was the first country to offer support to Maldives, providing immediate relief and assistance.
• Political Developments: In 2005, Mohamed Nasheed was elected as the President of Maldives, marking a significant shift in the country's political landscape. However, the situation took a downturn in 2012 when President Abdulla Yameen came to power, leading to strained relations between India and Maldives.
• Cancellation of GMR Project: In 2012, the Yameen government canceled a project granted to Indian company GMR Infrastructure to run the Male Airport, marking a low point in the relations between the two countries. In response, India froze its $25 million aid to the island nation.
• 2014 Water Crisis and Indian Assistance: In 2014, when Maldives faced a severe water crisis due to the collapse of its only water treatment plant, India provided urgent help by airlifting water bottles and sending ships with onboard desalination plants. This assistance was widely appreciated and helped improve relations between the two countries.
• Maldives-China Relations: During Yameen's tenure, Maldives' relations with China expanded to unprecedented levels, with the island nation becoming the second country in South Asia after Pakistan to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China in 2017. Maldives also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This development raised concerns in India, with three Chinese warships docking in Male in August 2017.
• 2018 Elections and Change in Government: In September 2018, Yameen was defeated in the elections, and Ibrahim Mohamed Solih became the President of Maldives. Following his victory, Solih called Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, reaffirming India as Maldives' "closest ally." Solih's government has vowed to strengthen ties with India and re-negotiate deals with China.
• India's Support to Maldives: In recent years, India has announced a $1.4 billion Line of Credit (LoC) and provided budgetary support to Maldives. Additionally, India has been training Maldivian naval officers and assisting in various developmental projects.

Challenges in India-Maldives Relations: Despite the positive developments, challenges remain in the relationship between India and Maldives. These include the growing radicalization in Maldives, with the highest per capita number of ISIS recruits; the fragile state of democracy in the island nation; and the need to balance relations with China.

Trade and People-to-People Contacts

• Bilateral trade between India and Maldives stands at around $100 million, with the majority being Indian exports. The two countries also enjoy strong people-to-people contacts and business relations.
• India-Maldives relations have witnessed ups and downs over the years, but recent developments indicate a positive trajectory for the future. It is crucial for both countries to continue working together to strengthen their ties and address the challenges that lie ahead.

India-Pakistan Relations: Overview and Challenges

India and Pakistan have a long history of animosity and conflict, primarily due to their territorial dispute over the region of Kashmir. This conflict has led to numerous wars, proxy wars, and the development of nuclear weapons by both countries. In this article, we will discuss the various issues and challenges faced by India in its relations with Pakistan, including the Kashmir issue, Indus Water Treaty, Gilgit Baltistan issue, Siachen issue, and Sir Creek issue.

1. Kashmir Issue: The Kashmir issue lies at the heart of the India-Pakistan conflict. While Pakistan considers it the main issue, India views it as a law and order problem. The conflict involves other actors, such as China, the United States, and Russia, who have stakes in the region due to its strategic location. Even if the Kashmir issue were to be resolved, the rivalry between India and Pakistan would likely persist due to their differing identities.
2. Indus Water Treaty: The Indus Water Treaty, signed between India and Pakistan in 1960, governs the sharing of water resources from the Indus River system. India has considered using the treaty as leverage against Pakistan, by developing dams and withholding water. However, this would require India to violate the treaty's provisions, which could lead to international condemnation and potential conflict.
3. Gilgit Baltistan Issue: Gilgit Baltistan is a region in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) that does not have any constitutional status within Pakistan. Pakistan has sought to declare it a province, but this move has been opposed by Kashmiris who fear it would justify India's actions in integrating its side of Kashmir under Article 370. The region is inhabited by Shias and has faced human rights issues due to the lack of proper administration.
   
4. Siachen Issue: The Siachen Glacier is a strategically important, albeit inhospitable, region between India and Pakistan. Both countries have spent significant resources maintaining a military presence there, despite the harsh conditions. India currently holds an advantageous position in the area, and any resolution of the dispute would require demarcation, delineation, and demilitarization. Pakistan, however, demands that India first withdraw its military presence.
5. Sir Creek Issue: The Sir Creek dispute is a territorial conflict between India and Pakistan over a marshy strip of land in the Rann of Kutch. India applies the Thalweg principle, which would divide the water body down the middle and place Sir Creek under its control. Pakistan disputes this principle, arguing that the creek is not navigable and should be divided according to historical maps.

India's Approach Towards Pakistan

In dealing with Pakistan, India must adopt a strategy of "strategic restraint." Since Pakistan is often seen as a rogue state with nuclear capabilities, India must respond in a measured and responsible manner to avoid appearing reckless or aggressive. This approach should focus on both offensive and defensive measures:

• Offensive: India should consider changing its nuclear retaliation strategy from "counter-value" (targeting civilians) to "counter-force" (targeting military assets) to deter Pakistan from using nuclear weapons in a conventional war.
• Defensive: India must maintain a strong defensive posture to address Pakistan's proxy wars and nuclear blackmailing. By avoiding a direct war, India can prevent international pressure to resolve the Kashmir issue and maintain its position on the global stage.

India faces numerous challenges in its relations with Pakistan, and addressing these issues requires a delicate balance of diplomacy, military strategy, and international cooperation. By adopting a strategic restraint approach and focusing on both offensive and defensive measures, India can work towards a more stable relationship with its western neighbor.

Overview: India’s foreign policy with Pakistan

India's foreign policy with Pakistan has been marked by a lack of consistency, clarity, and understanding of the neighboring country. Over the years, different Indian Prime Ministers have adopted various approaches towards Pakistan, which has led to confusion and a lack of long-term vision. This article provides an overview of the approaches followed by different Prime Ministers and their impact on India-Pakistan relations.

1. Pandit Nehru's idealistic approach: Nehru, the first Prime Minister of India, never considered Pakistan a challenge and believed that it would eventually reunite with India due to its economic, geographical, and historical ties. This belief led him to sign the Indus Water Treaty, which is considered unfavorable to India.
2. Indira Gandhi's realism: Unlike her father, Indira Gandhi adopted a more realistic approach towards Pakistan. However, she lacked expertise in international politics. The 1971 war, which led to the creation of Bangladesh, was a military victory for India, but a diplomatic defeat, as India received nothing in return except an empty promise to resolve the Kashmir issue through bilateral talks.
3. Rajiv Gandhi's continuity: Rajiv Gandhi continued his mother's approach towards Pakistan, without any significant changes.
4. Gujral Doctrine: Prime Minister Gujral introduced a well-thought-out policy aimed at improving relations with South Asian neighbors, including Pakistan. This resulted in a significant relaxation of tensions and agreements for visa liberalization for students and patients.
5. Vajpayee's inconsistent policy: Vajpayee understood the importance of improving relations with neighbors but adopted inconsistent policies, such as deciding to go nuclear, which worsened the security situation for India and legitimized Pakistan's nuclear weapons.
6. Manmohan Singh's economic diplomacy: Manmohan Singh focused on normalizing relations with Pakistan through economic diplomacy, including securing Most Favored Nation status from Pakistan. India and Pakistan came close to resolving several issues during his tenure, but the Mumbai terror attacks derailed the composite dialogue process.
7. Modi's "instant coffee" policy: Modi started his term with a "neighborhood first" policy but failed to maintain consistency after the Pathankot and Uri attacks. His policy, termed "Doval Doctrine," focused on offensive defense and exploiting Pakistan's vulnerabilities, but has been criticized for lacking cohesion and vision.

In conclusion, India's foreign policy towards Pakistan has suffered from a lack of clarity, understanding, and long-term vision. It is essential for India to have a clear goal, either peace or war, and be prepared to pay the price for achieving it. Considering the strategic balance between the two countries, war is not a rational option, and peace can only be achieved through dialogue. India must be willing to engage in dialogue and not yield to those who oppose peace, as maintaining the status quo only leads to further deterioration in relations.

How Scholars Describe India Pakistan relations?

1. Dilip Hiro - Fatal miscalculations, antagonisms, and mutual paranoia: In his book "The Longest August: The Unfinished Rivalry Between India and Pakistan," Hiro describes the relations between the two countries as a story of fatal miscalculations, antagonisms, and mutual paranoia of the elites. The history of Partition looms large on the subcontinent.
2. Stephen P Cohen - Paired minority conflict: Cohen's book "Shooting for a Century" refers to the India-Pakistan conflict as a "paired minority conflict" that has reached a mutually hurting stalemate. He believes that the situation may not normalize for another 30 years.
3. Rajesh Basrur - Managing relations despite animosity: Basrur claims that while every prime minister in India has dealt with the issue of Pakistan personally, the relationship has been difficult to manage due to factors beyond India's control, such as major power games. Yet, given the level of animosity, the relations are managed relatively well.
4. George Tanham - Structured foreign policies against each other: In his essay "Indian Strategic Thought: An Interpretative Essay," Tanham claims that both countries have structured their foreign policies against each other, resulting in mutually exclusive policies and zero-sum games. The struggle continues despite the end of the Cold War due to overlapping issues like identity conflicts, subnational identities, and domestic politics.
5. Hussain Haqqani - False narratives and state of denial: In his book "Reimagining Pakistan," Haqqani claims that Pakistan nurtures false narratives and is in a state of denial, with its nationalism largely based on hatred for India. He refers to Pakistan's obsession with Kashmir, the role of the army, and the attitude of the elites as major obstacles to peace.
6. T C A Raghavan - Cyclical pattern of talks and standoffs: In his book "The People Next Door," Raghavan argues that the cyclical pattern of resumption of talks and hawkish standoffs between India and Pakistan will continue, and that older solutions will not work.
7. Kanti Bajpai - Dead-end policy and need for strategic patience: Bajpai believes that India's policy towards Pakistan has reached a dead end, and that coercive diplomacy is untenable. He suggests reopening dialogue, strengthening strategic relations with the United States, and pursuing détente with China as possible strategies.
8. Sumit Ganguly - Maintaining deterrence by denial: In his book "The Deadly Impasse," Ganguly advises India to maintain deterrence by denial, keep adequate forces in Kashmir, strengthen counter-insurgency efforts, address grievances in Kashmir, and take steps to check radicalization of Muslim youth in the country.
9. M K Narayanan - Inconsistent and irrational options: Narayanan describes India's policy towards Pakistan as inconsistent and irrational. He suggests exploring the option of cyber war and evolving a new counter-force doctrine.
10. Shashi Tharoor - Limited bilateral options and back-channel diplomacy: In his book "Pax Indica," Tharoor refers to Pakistan as a "brother enemy" and argues that India has limited options in dealing with Pakistan bilaterally. He proposes back-channel diplomacy, reaching out to countries with leverage on Pakistan, and increasing the stakes of the international community in the Indian economy to prevent terrorist attacks.

In summary, scholars describe India-Pakistan relations as fraught with miscalculations, antagonisms, and paranoia. They offer various suggestions for improvement, including reopening dialogue, pursuing détente with other powers, and maintaining deterrence by denial. However, the complexity of the relationship and the numerous obstacles to peace make finding a lasting solution challenging.

India-Afghanistan Relations: The Great Game and its Players

Afghanistan, known as the graveyard of empires, has been under civil war since the Cold War. Its strategic location, connecting West Asia, South Asia, North East Asia, and Central Asia, has made it a hub for the 'Great Game' – a power struggle between various nations to gain influence and control over the region. In this context, it is essential to understand the stakes of different players in Afghanistan, particularly India.

The Players in Afghanistan

• USA: The United States aims to contain the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia through its presence in Afghanistan. It also wants to control the mineral wealth and the opium trade in the region. Additionally, the US is wary of Iran emerging as a regional hegemon and aims to keep its influence in check.
• Russia: Afghanistan shares a border with Central Asia, which is considered Russia's soft belly. Russia wants to ensure that any government in Afghanistan is not pro-USA, as it fears that the US's presence could provoke insurgency in its Caucasus region and challenge its monopoly over the transit of oil and gas from Central Asia to Europe.
• China: As China's rise is seen as a threat by the USA, it has been contained on the eastern side. The only option for China to expand with the least resistance is through Eurasia. China wants to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a support base for Uighur militants and does not want the presence of the USA in the region, which would challenge its OBOR project.
• Iran: Iran, a Shia-majority nation, does not want any government in Afghanistan that is tilted towards Saudi Arabia or any Sunni Orthodox faction. It also opposes the presence of the USA in the region.
• Pakistan: Pakistan aims for strategic depth in Afghanistan, which means complete control over the government. This is because it does not want any pro-India government in Afghanistan and wants to keep India out. Pakistan is also nervous about India's presence in Afghanistan, fearing it could lose its northwest frontier province and face issues related to the Durand Line.
• Turkey: Turkey has recently started nurturing the ambition of becoming the leader in the Muslim world. As a result, it has been distancing itself from the West and is looking to leverage its strategic location and cultural capital in Central Asia to bargain with the USA.
• India: Afghanistan is central to India's security, and India aims to have a friendly government in the country that allows the stationing of its forces if needed. India seeks to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for anti-India terrorist activities and contribute to its security.

The Proxy War in Afghanistan

• The proxy war between the US and China is evident in Afghanistan, with both nations trying to expand their influence and control over the region. The relations between India and Pakistan also play a significant role in the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan. Unless these relations improve, the proxy war in Afghanistan will not end.
• For India, ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan is of utmost importance to prevent the country from becoming a breeding ground for anti-India terrorist activities. Afghanistan holds strategic importance for various nations, and understanding their stakes in the region is crucial for India to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape.

India's Afghanistan Policy: Analysis and Objectives

• Importance of Afghanistan for India: Afghanistan is vital for India's security, as it shares a border with Pakistan and has been a battleground for various powers throughout history. India should aim for a pro-India government and maintain a military presence in Afghanistan to safeguard its interests.
• India's relations with Afghanistan during the Cold War: During the Cold War, Afghanistan was under Soviet influence, and India had good relations with the country due to its close ties with the USSR. India had outsourced its security to the Soviet Union during this period.
• India's relations with Afghanistan after the Cold War: After the end of the Cold War, Afghanistan was ruled by communists, who were defeated by the Mujahideen, supported by Pakistan and the USA. After initial hesitations, India established formal relations with the Afghan government. Afghanistan tries to counterbalance the influence of Pakistan by engaging with India.
• Emergence of the Taliban: The Taliban emerged from Afghan refugees in Pakistan, who were indoctrinated by Pakistan with Saudi Arabian financing to build a force against Iran. Pakistan helped the Taliban capture power in Kabul, leading to the Afghan government's displacement.
• India's approach to the Taliban: India did not recognize the Taliban as they were supported by Pakistan. India continued to regard the displaced government as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. However, this stance led to consequences such as the hijacking of IC 814 in December 1999. India learned the lesson of staying engaged in Afghanistan and not ignoring developments in the country.
• US war on Afghanistan (October 2001): India saw the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) as an opportunity and extended unconditional help to the US. However, the US made Pakistan a frontline state and a major non-NATO ally, which angered India, leading to a strategic partnership with China in 2003.
• Bonn Conference 2001: India emerged as a leading donor for Afghanistan's reconstruction and development at the Bonn Conference, contributing $3 billion in aid despite its economic challenges.
• Analysis of India's policy: India's soft power diplomacy in Afghanistan can be attributed to its own lack of strategic culture and US pressure to keep India's military footprint out of Afghanistan. This approach has made India popular among ordinary Afghans but limited its role as a key player in Afghanistan's strategic scenario.
• Consequences of India's policy: India's soft power approach has not made it a major stakeholder in the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan. India has been excluded from dialogues such as the Quadrilateral talks and Russia-Afghanistan-Iran talks.

What should have been India's policy?

India should have taken up a more significant role in Afghanistan when invited by Afghan governments under both Karzai and Ghani, as well as the Trump administration. India's reluctance to send military personnel, even for training Afghan defense forces, has limited its influence in Afghanistan.

Views of Scholars

Views of Harsh Pant and Avinash Paliwal

• In his book "India's Afghan Muddle: A Lost Opportunity," Harsh Pant argues that India has been seeking influence in Afghanistan without taking on commensurate responsibility. He suggests that India needs to decide whether to take on more risks and responsibilities or continue to rely on others to secure its interests in Afghanistan.
• In contrast, Avinash Paliwal in his book "My Enemy's Enemy" believes that India's engagement in Afghanistan has not been so bad. Despite adverse geography, inadequate capacity, and excessive caution, India has maintained itself as a player in the region. Paliwal argues that India's success in Afghanistan is partly due to external factors such as US policy, Pakistan's mistakes, and luck.

Future Prospects

• India's policy in Afghanistan faces several challenges, including the changing geopolitical landscape, the rise of the Taliban and the Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), and the unreliability of the US as a partner. The growing influence of Iran, Russia, and China in Afghanistan also complicates India's strategic interests in the region.
• India needs to develop its own Afghanistan policy that takes into account its strategic interests, its relationship with the Afghan government and other regional players, and the needs of the Afghan people. This may involve reevaluating its reliance on soft power, engaging with the Taliban, and strengthening its partnerships with Central Asian countries.
• India's Afghanistan policy has been described as "masterly inactivity" by some commentators, while others have called it the "Panipat Syndrome." This reflects the need for India to take a more proactive and strategic approach to its engagement in Afghanistan, rather than relying on other countries or reacting to events as they unfold.

Recent Developments

• India has made some efforts to strengthen its position in Afghanistan, including signing a strategic partnership agreement in 2011, campaigning for membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and reviving its "Connect Central Asia" policy.
• India has also sought to improve its relations with Iran, restarting the Chabahar port project, which has significant economic and strategic implications for India's access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. However, US sanctions against Iran threaten the viability of the Chabahar project.

“ India's Afghanistan policy needs a reassessment to better align with its strategic interests and the changing geopolitical landscape in the region. This may involve taking on more risks and responsibilities, engaging with the Taliban, and deepening its partnerships with Central Asian countries. Developing a more proactive and strategic approach to Afghanistan will be crucial for India to secure its interests in the region and enhance its prestige as a major power.” 

Conclusion

In conclusion, India's relationship with its neighboring countries, such as Maldives, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, is marked by both opportunities and challenges. Despite deep-rooted historical and cultural ties, issues like terrorism, radicalization, and power struggles remain significant obstacles to regional peace and stability. India must adopt a strategic approach by engaging in dialogue, strengthening partnerships, and addressing the concerns of its neighbors. By doing so, India can work towards fostering a more stable and prosperous region while safeguarding its own national interests.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) of India and South Asia

What are the main challenges in India-Maldives relations?

The main challenges include growing radicalization in Maldives, the fragile state of democracy in the island nation, and the need to balance relations with China.

What are the key issues and challenges faced by India in its relations with Pakistan?

The key issues include the Kashmir dispute, Indus Water Treaty, Gilgit Baltistan issue, Siachen issue, and Sir Creek issue.

What are the different approaches taken by various Indian Prime Ministers towards Pakistan?

Some examples include Pandit Nehru's idealistic approach, Indira Gandhi's realism, Rajiv Gandhi's continuity, the Gujral Doctrine, Vajpayee's inconsistent policy, Manmohan Singh's economic diplomacy, and Modi's "instant coffee" policy.

What are the stakes of different players in Afghanistan, particularly India?

Different players in Afghanistan include the USA, Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and India. Each nation has its interests, such as containing rival powers, gaining influence and control over the region, and ensuring friendly governments in Afghanistan.

What should India's policy be towards Afghanistan in the future?

India should develop its own Afghanistan policy that considers its strategic interests, relationships with the Afghan government and other regional players, and the needs of the Afghan people. This may involve reevaluating its reliance on soft power, engaging with the Taliban, and strengthening its partnerships with Central Asian countries.