Concepts of over-under-and optimum population | Geography Optional for UPSC (Notes) PDF Download

Optimum Population Theory

The optimum population refers to the ideal number of people in a country that, when combined with available resources and means of production, will result in the highest income per person. This concept, initially introduced by Confucius, aims to find the perfect balance between population size and resource availability to maximize the overall well-being and prosperity of a nation.

‘Excessive growth may reduce output per worker, repress levels of living for the masses and engender strife’. -  Confucius (551 – 479 BCE)

In the 19th century, the initial concept of optimum population can be linked to the work of German professor Karl Winkelblech (1810-1865). He categorized nations into three groups based on their population size: under-populated, over-populated, and nations with normal populations, which he defined as having a size that fosters the highest possible productivity.

• The optimum population theory was further developed by Edwin Cannan in his 1924 book, Wealth. It was later popularized by economists such as Robbins, Carr-Saunders, and Dalton.
• Robbins described the optimum population as the one that achieves the highest possible returns, making it the most desirable population size. Carr-Saunders defined it as the population that generates maximum economic welfare. Meanwhile, Dalton took a more scientific and realistic approach, stating that the optimum population is the one that yields the maximum income per capita.

Overall, the concept of optimum population revolves around the idea of finding the ideal population size that maximizes a nation's economic welfare and productivity.

Assumptions/Postulations
The Optimum Population Theory is built on several key assumptions and postulations, which include:

• The availability of a country's natural resources is considered constant at a specific point in time, but it is acknowledged that these resources may change over time.
• The methods and techniques used in production do not experience any changes or improvements.
• The amount of capital, such as money and assets, remains unchanged within the country.
• The preferences and habits of the population remain consistent, without any significant shifts or alterations.
• As the population grows, the proportion of working individuals to the total population remains constant.
• The number of hours that laborers work does not change, maintaining a consistent work schedule.
• The various ways businesses are structured and organized remain stable and unchanging.

These assumptions serve as the foundation for the Optimum Population Theory, which attempts to determine the ideal population size for a country based on its available resources and economic productivity.

The Theory

• The Optimum Population Theory posits that there is an ideal population size that yields the maximum per capita income. Any increase or decrease in population beyond this optimal level will result in a reduction in per capita income. This ideal population size is determined by the available natural resources, production techniques, and capital stock in a country.
• In other words, if an increase in population leads to a rise in per capita income, the country is considered under-populated and can accommodate a growing population until it reaches the optimum level. Conversely, if a growth in population results in a decline in per capita income, the country is over-populated and needs to reduce its population to maximize income per person.
• At the point of optimum population, per capita income is at its highest, and any further increase in population will cause the average labor productivity to fall. It is important to note that the optimum population is not a fixed point and can change with variations in any of the determining factors.
• For instance, improvements in production methods and techniques can increase output per person, causing the optimum population point to shift upwards. Similarly, an increase in natural resources can lead to a higher optimum population level for a country.

Dalton’s Formula

• Dalton's formula is a method to determine whether a country's population is overpopulated, underpopulated, or at an optimal level. The formula calculates the maladjustment (M) based on the difference between the actual population (A) and the optimum population (O).
• Maladjustment (M) is calculated as follows: M = (A - O) / O
• A positive value for M indicates that the country is overpopulated, while a negative value signifies that the country is underpopulated. If M is equal to 0, the country's population is considered to be at an optimal level.
• In summary, Dalton's formula helps to analyze the deviation from the ideal population level by measuring the maladjustment between the actual and optimum population levels.

P Sengupta’s formula

• I = (P1-P)/A
• Where I is the index of population
• P1 is the rural population capable of being supported by land resource base.
• P is the actual rural population.
• A is the total area.
• This method has applicability in India which is an agrarian country.

Some examples of optimum population

• USA is not overpopulated despite being the third largest in terms of population but Saharan countries are overpopulated due to lack of utilization of resources.
• The population density of Singapore is high but it has been able to sustain its population effectively due to efficient utilization of resources.

Superiority over Malthusian Theory

• The superiority of this theory over the Malthusian Theory lies in its broad applicability to countries with diverse economic conditions. It considers both agricultural and industrial populations when addressing the issue of population growth.
• This concept is dynamic, as it acknowledges that per capita income may rise over time due to advancements in knowledge, skills, capital, and equipment, leading to increased output. Unlike the Malthusian Theory, this approach takes a more optimistic and realistic stance on tackling population-related problems.
• Critical Analysis
  Although the optimum population theory has proven to be more advanced than the Malthusian theory of population, it still possesses significant flaws.
• Firstly, there is no evidence of an optimum population level existing in any country, making it difficult to prove the theory's validity. Additionally, measuring the optimum population level is a challenging task due to the complexities involved in determining the ideal population size for a particular area.
• Moreover, it is nearly impossible to accurately measure per capita income, which is a crucial aspect of the optimum population theory. This is because calculating the precise income for each individual is a complex process that is prone to inaccuracies.
• Furthermore, the theory neglects the distribution of per capita income, not accounting for income inequality and its potential impact on population size. This oversight can lead to inaccurate conclusions about the ideal population size.
• Another weakness of the theory is that the optimum population level is not fixed but changes over time, as various factors such as advancements in technology and changes in resources influence the ideal population size.
• Additionally, the theory does not take into account the social and institutional conditions that can have a significant impact on population size, such as government policies, cultural practices, and social norms.
• The optimum population theory also lacks a place in state policies, as it does not guide policymakers on how to manage population growth or address issues related to overpopulation or underpopulation.
• Lastly, the theory fails to explain the determinants of population growth, which are crucial in understanding the reasons behind changes in population size and devising effective population management strategies.

In summary, despite its advantages over the Malthusian theory of population, the optimum population theory has several weaknesses that limit its effectiveness and applicability in understanding and managing population growth.

Overpopulation

Overpopulation occurs when the number of people in a specific area exceeds the optimal capacity, leading to negative consequences such as overcrowding, pollution, crime, and social dysfunction. Additionally, the environment may suffer damage, and there may not be enough resources to support the population at its current level.
Initially, as the population increases, the overall output and production may also increase to match the growing population. However, after reaching a certain point, the law of diminishing returns comes into play. This means that the output per person decreases, causing more people to rely on the same limited resources, ultimately resulting in a decline in individual wealth. In some cases, this may lead to people migrating out of the overpopulated region.
Overpopulation can be classified into two categories according to Clark:

• Absolute overpopulation: This refers to a situation where people experience a low standard of living despite the maximum development of available resources.
• Relative overpopulation: In this case, the current production of an economy is insufficient to support the population, but it has the potential to increase with advancements in technology.

Under population

In contrast to overpopulation, underpopulation occurs when there are not enough people in an area to fully utilize and develop its resources. This can result in a lower standard of living than could be achieved if the area's full potential were realized. In cases where the population is below the optimal level, an increase in population can lead to a net social benefit without causing harm to the natural resources required to support the population. An example of this can be seen in Central Asia.

Important determinants of population

• Demographic structure like mortality which may create a situation of under population.
• Available resource and Technology: The concept of the optimum population assumes that the techniques of production, the stock of capital and natural resources, the habits and tastes of the people, the ratio of working population to total population, and the modes of business organisation are constant. But all these factors are constantly changing. As a result, what may be the optimum at a point of time might become less or more than the optimum over a period of time.
  
• Per capita production, average standard of living and rational utilisation of resources also determines the population of a region.

• In the figure given below, AP1 is the average product of labour or per capita income curve. Suppose there is an innovation which brings a change in the techniques of production. It shifts the per capita income curve to AP2. As a result, the optimum level of population rises from OP1 to OP2 with the increase in per capita income E from P1M1 to P2M2. If the per capita income rises further due to a change in any of the above assumed factors, the AP2, curve will shift upward.
  

Methods to tackle Overpopulation and Underpopulation

• Methods to tackle over and under population include migration and technology transfer etc.
• Migration from the regions of overpopulation such as South Asia to under-populated ones like Middle East might lead to economic benefits for both the regions.
• Similarly diffusion of technology between developed and developing countries may also enable the latter to enhance their technology level thereby allowing for more efficient resource utilization.

The population is converted to overpopulation when:

• When number of people in an area exceeds the carrying capacity of land.
• Number of natural resources is not sufficient to fulfil the needs of existing population.
• The rate of growth of population is greater than the rate of growth of development.
• Per capita income in the region is too less to maintain the basic need.
• Overpopulation also leads to over exploitation of resources which affects the sustainable growth of a region.

Ackerman’s Classification
Ackerman's Classification offers a framework for analyzing the population-resource relationship by considering three primary factors: population, resource, and technology. The most critical of these factors is the quality and availability of technology, which greatly influences resource utilization and overall prosperity. Ackerman's classification divides the world into five population-resource regions, each with different characteristics:

1. United States Type or Technology-Source Area of Low Population-Potential/Resource Ratio: These regions are the most developed in the world, having a high standard of living due to advanced technology and skilled personnel. These areas experienced rapid development in the past couple of centuries, fueled by immigration from more technologically advanced societies. As a result, these areas have become major exporters of technology and technical personnel. Examples include the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, and parts of Russia.
2. European Type or Technology-Source Area of High Population-Potential/Resource Ratio: These regions are the original source of large-scale migration to the areas that later developed into United States Type regions. Although they have advanced technology and limited physical resources, these areas maintain a high standard of living through continuous technological innovation, resource conservation and recycling, and the export of technology, technical know-how, and finished goods. Examples include most Western, Southern, and Eastern European countries and the former Soviet Central Asian republics.
3. Brazilian Type or Technology-Deficient Area of Low Population-Potential/Resource Ratio: These regions have a low population-resource ratio and are considered transitional areas with high potential for development. They possess abundant physical resources but lack advanced technology, resulting in average prosperity levels. With the introduction or development of improved technology and social infrastructure, these areas could follow a path of higher prosperity similar to European Type regions. Examples include most of the Brazilian plateau, Bolivia, Venezuela, Paraguay, interior Argentina, Central American Republics, Cuba, and northern Australian territory.
4. China or Egyptian Type or Technology-Deficient Area of High Population-Potential/Resource Ratio: These areas face the most challenging situation, with poor technological development and high population pressure on limited physical resources. Industrialization is low, agriculture struggles, and the population continues to grow rapidly. Widespread social issues such as poverty, unemployment, malnutrition, and illiteracy are prevalent. Examples include Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Albania, Greece, Haiti, Guatemala, China, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan.
5. Arctic-Desert Type or Technology-Deficient Area with Few Food Producing Resources:  These regions hold potential for future development due to their unexplored resources but are currently limited by technological constraints. They are either uninhabited or sparsely populated, and advancements in technology may eventually make these areas more hospitable for human settlement. Examples include Antarctica, the northern regions of North America and Eurasia, the Amazon basin, the Sahara desert, deserts of Central Australia, Chile, and Patagonia.

In summary, Ackerman's Classification highlights the importance of technology in determining the population-resource relationship and provides a useful starting point for analyzing the global distribution of resources, population, and development.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Optimum Population Theory seeks to determine the ideal population size that maximizes a nation's economic welfare and productivity based on available resources, production techniques, and capital stock. While it offers a more dynamic and optimistic approach to addressing population issues compared to the Malthusian Theory, it still possesses significant limitations, such as difficulties in measuring per capita income and determining the ideal population size. Additionally, the theory fails to account for various social and institutional factors that influence population growth. To tackle overpopulation and underpopulation, strategies such as migration and technology transfer may prove beneficial. Ackerman's Classification further emphasizes the critical role of technology in determining a region's population-resource relationship and overall prosperity.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) of Concepts of over-under-and optimum population

What is the optimum population theory?

The optimum population theory is the idea that there is an ideal population size for a country that, when combined with available resources and means of production, will result in the highest income per person. This theory aims to find the perfect balance between population size and resource availability to maximize a nation's economic welfare and productivity.

What are some assumptions of the optimum population theory?

Some key assumptions of the optimum population theory include constant availability of a country's natural resources, unchanging methods and techniques used in production, a constant amount of capital, consistent preferences and habits of the population, and stability in the various ways businesses are structured and organized.

What is the difference between overpopulation and underpopulation?

Overpopulation occurs when the number of people in a specific area exceeds the optimal capacity, leading to negative consequences such as overcrowding, pollution, crime, and social dysfunction. Underpopulation, on the other hand, occurs when there are not enough people in an area to fully utilize and develop its resources, resulting in a lower standard of living than could be achieved if the area's full potential were realized.

How does the optimum population theory differ from the Malthusian theory of population?

The optimum population theory differs from the Malthusian theory of population in that it considers both agricultural and industrial populations when addressing the issue of population growth. This concept is also dynamic, as it acknowledges that per capita income may rise over time due to advancements in knowledge, skills, capital, and equipment, leading to increased output. Unlike the Malthusian theory, the optimum population theory takes a more optimistic and realistic stance on tackling population-related problems.

What are some methods to tackle overpopulation and underpopulation?

Some methods to tackle overpopulation and underpopulation include migration and technology transfer. Migration from overpopulated regions to under-populated ones may lead to economic benefits for both regions. Similarly, the diffusion of technology between developed and developing countries may enable the latter to enhance their technology level, thereby allowing for more efficient resource utilization.