International Relations & Security: January 2022 Current Affairs | UPSC Mains: International Relations PDF Download

India - Myanmar

Recently, India’s Foreign Secretary visited Myanmar. Foreign Secretary emphasized on India’s interest in seeing Myanmar’s return to democracy at the earliest; release of detainees and prisoners; resolution of issues through dialogue; and complete cessation of all violence.

Highlights of the Visit

• Foreign Secretary reaffirmed India’s strong and consistent support to the ASEAN initiative and expressed hope that progress would be made in a pragmatic and constructive manner, based on the five-point consensus. 
• Handed over one million doses of "Made in India” vaccines to the Myanmar Red Cross Society.

India seeks Myanmar’s return to democracy  

Asean – Five Point Consensus Formula

The ASEAN five-point consensus states that there shall be an 

1. Immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar and all parties shall exercise utmost restraint. 
2. Constructive dialogue among all parties concerned shall commence to seek a peaceful solution in the interests of the people. 
3. A special envoy of the ASEAN Chair shall facilitate mediation of the dialogue process, with assistance of the Secretary General of ASEAN. 
4. ASEAN shall provide humanitarian assistance through the AHA Centre. 
5. Special Envoy and delegation shall visit Myanmar to meet with all parties concerned. 
6. Junta has refused to cooperate with this formula.

Military Coup in Myanmar

• Military coup in Myanmar had set off civil unrest and protests. India had criticised the violence, while following a policy of non-interference on the matter of the coup keeping in mind the strategic importance of Myanmar to India, which is - a bridge to Southeast Asia and ASEAN; important for security in Northeast; crucial for Neighbourhood first and the Act East Policy.

India’s Approach Towards Military Coup

• Calibrated approach of India: India has followed a calibrated approach since the military coup. Initially it followed a wait and watch approach, only now has called for a return to democracy. It is reflective of the regional realities. It is different from the West’s approach of condemnation, threats and sanctions. 
• China which had close relations with the Su Kyi government has tried to expand its cooperation with the Junta. 
• Myanmar has refused to cooperate with the ASEAN five-point formula. 
• India has assisted Myanmar through capacity-building programmes for strengthening the transition to democracy. However, it is not an offer of mediation by India in the military-NLD conflict. 
• Myanmar has renewed the previous pledge that its nation’s territory would not be allowed to be used for any activities inimical to India. 
• Foreign secretary was received by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing (who is Chairman of the SAC and Prime Minister) which is departure from the past visits of foreign secretaries from India. Such special gesture clearly shows that China is not the only Friend of Myanmar.

Implications of Myanmar’s Military Coup

1. Border security 
   • Refugees fleeing the military crackdown are entering Mizoram. This has led to disagreement between centre and Mizoram which supports refugees. 
   • Centre’s instruction of sealing border with Myanmar has irked ethnically and culturally connected communities on both sides. Ex – Chin community. 
2. Strategic concern: India cannot upset the Myanmar junta by providing refuge to the officials fleeing military crackdown. 
3. Containing China: Myanmar being crucial in containing China, India will have to take a calculated steps to not push Myanmar closer to China. 
4. Insurgency: Several ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) are active within Myanmar. Being opposed to Junta, EAOs can lead to escalation in violence across the border. 
5. Indian Investments: Instability would threaten India’s investments in Myanmar. Ex – Kaladan Project, Sittwe port, IMT trilateral Highway, Special economic zone in Rakhine. 
6. Opportunity to reduce influence of China: The Myanmar army has enjoyed a relatively strong relationship with India. It played a key role in handling the insurgency and Hot Pursuits of India. Su Kyi led democratic government was closer to China. China supported it on Rohingya crisis.

India's Myanmar Policy

1. Non-interference in internal politics: Since 1990s, India has supported democratization of Myanmar, driven from within the country. This has allowed Delhi to engage both with the military and the party in power, whether the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party or the pro-democracy National League for Democracy. 
2. Engagement rather than criticising: India is cognizant of the geopolitical dimension of Myanmar’s democratization. For Delhi, engaging rather than criticizing is the most practical approach to finding a solution. 
3. Balancing influence of China: There was inauguration of liaison office of the Embassy of India in Naypyidaw recently. This is significant as only a few countries have set up such office in Myanmar. Interestingly, China was the first country to establish a liaison office in 2017. 
   • Myanmar's growing closeness with China and the China Myanmar Economic Corridor is a cause of concern for India amidst growing India-China tension. 
   • India also has taken significant step towards establishing its embassy in Nay Pyi Taw. India has its embassy in Yangon, the former capital. 
4. Strategic Infrastructure development 
   • India has also proposed to build a petroleum refinery in Myanmar that would involve an investment of $6 billion. It shows India’s competitive dynamic with China. 
   • Commitment has been made to operationalise of the crucial Sittwe port in Myanmar’s Rakhine state by March 2021. 
5. The two sides are collaborating on the ongoing Indian assisted infrastructure projects such as the India Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. The project will link Kolkata to Sittwe in Myanmar and then from Myanmar’s Kaladan river to India’s northeast.
6. Border security and development: Both countries believe in mutual commitment not to allow respective territories to be used for activities inimical to each other. Both have been collaborating in the development of border areas with the understanding that it is the best guarantee to secure their borders.

Importance of Myanmar for India

• Myanmar is key link between South Asia to Southeast Asia. It is a member of both ASEAN as well as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) which bridges South and South-East Asia. 
• Myanmar stands at the confluence of India’s Neighbourhood First and Act East Policy and India Myanmar partnership is at the heart of India’s vision to create a connected and cooperative neighbourhood. 
• Connectivity projects through Myanmar help India overcome its Chicken-neck dilemma (Siliguri Corridor). Myanmar is also necessary for the development of North-Eastern India. 
• Good relations with Myanmar are central to keep the North-eastern states peaceful. 
• Myanmar is important for both Neighbourhood first and the Act east Policy. 
• Vital Trade Partner

India – Central Asia

Recently, India-Central Asia Dialogue was held in the context of emerging geo-political situation in the region. This assumes importance in the wake of the Great Game that is unfolding, Taliban in Afghanistan besides the importance that India attaches to this region strategically. A month earlier India’s national security dialogue convened “Regional Security dialogue” with the Central Asia counterparts on Afghanistan. Further India has invited the heads of 5Central Asian Republics to the republic day celebrations.

India – Central Asia Dialogue

• Highlighted the need to work on 4Cs- Commerce, Capacity enhancement, Connectivity and Contacts. 
• Both stated a “broad regional consensus” on Afghanistan 
• Agreed to further increase engagement on the connectivity Projects including INSTC, TAPI pipeline etc. 
• Agreed to enhance economic cooperation.

About Central Asia Countries

Central Asian countries are a group of five countries Kazakhstan (largest), Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. All these countries were earlier part of the USSR and became independent sovereigns after the fall of USSR. 

Central Asian Countries

Some features of these countries are: 

• Doubly Landlocked: All five countries are doubly landlocked because their neighbours are also land locked. For these countries to integrate substantively with the world economy and develop fruitful economic relations with the outside world, they need to have access to warm-water seas. 
• Mineral rich region: All five countries are richly endowed with natural and mineral resources. These countries have vast stretches of unexplored minerals including uranium, oil and gas making it an important region for India's economic interest. 
• Political stability: All five republics have been by and large peaceful and stable throughout the 25 years of their independent existence. 
• Extremism: Although terrorist groups like Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Hizb-ut-Tahrir and others are present in the Ferghana valley, they have not been very active or effective in creating disturbances. This could however change if violence due to the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan increases and spreads to other countries in the region. The five republics have been largely secular and liberal so far. Religious extremism, fundamentalism and terrorism pose challenges to all these societies and to regional stability. 
• Drug trade and Great Game: CARs face serious threat from illegal drug trade emanating from Afghanistan. Traditionally, Central Asia has been an arena of ‘’great game’’. The modern version is being played out even today. Russia, China, US, Turkey, Iran, Europe, EU, Japan, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan have substantial security and economic stakes in the region.

Great Game in Central Asia

• Central Asian region stretches from the Caspian Sea in the West to China and Mongolia in the East, and from Afghanistan and Iran in the South to Russia in the North, including the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 
• The geopolitical scenario is undergoing a sea change in the last few years in Central Asia. These radical transformations in the geopolitical front of Central Asia are taking place largely due to the interplay of both global and regional forces and their subsequent impact on the region. 
• Taliban takeover in Afghanistan has renewed focus on these republics to tackle the new challenges of rising extremism in the region. 
• US hopes to use Central Asia as an important region in its Indo-pacific strategy to counter Russia and China. 
• Russia considers this region to be its backyard and has considerable leverage given the Soviet past of these countries. 
• CARs are crucial for China given the high level of economic engagement and the BRI which passes through this region.

India - Central Asia Relations

• Historical & cultural relations: India has several millennia old historical, cultural and civilisational links with Central Asia. The region related to India through the silk road through which Buddhism spread in the region and economic and cultural ties bloomed. India enjoys good reputation and soft power in these countries. Bollywood movies and songs are particularly popular in the region. Also, many Indian students go to these countries to pursue higher education. 
• Strategic Importance: The region is considered to be extended neighbourhood of India. The countries are centrally located in India's continental neighbourhood. 
• Geopolitics: Geopolitically the region is important for India to counter the increasing Chinese influence with its Belt Road Initiative in India's continental neighbourhood. With Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan, Central Asia can play a crucial role in India's strategic calculations in the region. 
• Energy needs: India is an energy deficit country. This region is extremely well endowed with hydrocarbon resources and other mineral and natural resources. These countries are also rich in strategic minerals such as Uranium. 
• Connectivity: Because of presence of Pakistan and China on the norther borders and hostile Taliban in Afghanistan, India does not have direct access to these Central Asian republics. 
• Trade: Despite enormous potential, India's trade with this region has been minimal because of lack of direct connectivity. Largest trading partners of this region are still Russia and China owing to geographical proximity.

Initiatives Taken by India to Strengthen Relations with Central Asian Republics

1. Connect Central Asia Strategy 

• India's 'Connect Central Asia' Policy is a broad-based approach, including political, security, economic and cultural connections. 
• India is stepping up multilateral engagement with Central Asian partners using the synergy of joint efforts through existing fora like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Eurasian Economic Community (EEC) and the Custom Union. India has become a member of the SCO of which majority of the central Asian countries are members. 
• India looks to Central Asia as a long-term partner in energy and natural resources. Central Asia possesses large cultivable tracts of land, and it sees potential for India to cooperate in production of profitable crops with value addition. 
• India is setting up a Central Asian e-network with its hub in India, to deliver, tele-education and telemedicine connectivity, linking all the five Central Asian States. 

2. Connectivity 

• As for land connectivity, India has reactivated the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). 
• India is modernizing the infrastructure of the Chabahar port in Iran, which could become an important link in trade and transport communications between the markets of Central and South Asia. 
• India recently joined the Ashgabat Agreement, which was instituted in April 2011 to establish an international multimodal transport and transit corridor between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf. Its objective is to enhance connectivity within the Eurasian region and synchronize it with other regional transport corridors, including the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC). 

3. Economic and Humanitarian engagement 

• First meeting of India-Central Asia Dialogue was held in 2019 in Samarkand (Uzbekistan) which established a platform for strengthening cooperation between India and the Central Asian countries 
• India has provided humanitarian medical assistance to these countries for COVID-19 relief. 
• India has provided US$ 1 billion Line of Credit for priority developmental projects in fields such as connectivity, energy, IT, healthcare, education, agriculture in the region. 
• India-Central Asia Business Council (ICABC) has also been launched for boosting business to business engagement. 

4. Other areas of cooperation 

• The joint statements on the India-Central Asian dialogue also focused on the need to combat terrorism by destroying safe havens, infrastructure, networks, and funding channels. 
• Connections between our peoples are the most vital linkages to sustain our deep engagement. 
• India already has a robust exchange of students. India will encourage regular exchanges of scholars, academics, civil society and youth delegations to gain deeper insights into each other’s cultures.

Challenges in India's Outreach to Central Asia

Strategic concerns 

• India has no direct connectivity with this region. 
• The takeover of Afghanistan by Taliban has severely altered India's strategic calculations in the region. However, India can leverage its relationship with the CARs to engage with Taliban. 
• China’s open-handed outreach to the region in the form of big-ticket connectivity projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, reduces space available for India. 
• China has been expanding its regional presence, as seen in the ‘5+1 format’ launched in 2020 to further its influence. Its advances are causing concerns of ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ given the economic situation of Central Asian countries. This provides India with an opportunity to leverage its good relations to counter the fears of 'Chinese Debt diplomacy'. 
• Being part of the erstwhile USSR, Russia still has considerable influence on these countries. However, to counter the Chinese influence, Russia has been promoting its own Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) to pursue regional and economic integration. 
• Connectivity projects not materialising: US sanctions on Iran and increasing Chinese presence has caused delay in operationalising the Chabahar port fully. 
• INSTC project has witnessed slow growth due to a combination of factors including low trade volumes, incomplete infrastructure, and sanctions. 
• India must redouble its efforts connectivity to further its regional presence. This becomes more important in the context of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, with two of its six corridors running through Central Asia. 
• Limited Economic Partnership: India has been a latecomer and has turned its attention to the region only in recent years. 
• India’s trade with the region amounts to US$ 2 billion, owing to limited connectivity and low economic engagement with the region. This amount is less than 0.5 percent of India’s total trade, whereas the region’s trade with China amounts to US$ 100 billion.

Way Forward

• India needs to direct investment to the region to reap the economic benefits of the strategic location of Central Asia that puts it at the crossroads of key trade and commerce routes. 
• India must increase its developmental and humanitarian aid to the region and promote closer people-to-people ties through education, knowledge transfer, medicine and health, culture, cuisine, and tourism. 
• Multilateral organisations like SCO, EAEU, and CICA can serve as platforms for sustained engagement and regular exchange of ideas. 
• The SCO is a crucial grouping that provides India a strategic convergence with Russia and China on addressing new security challenges, enhancing infrastructural development projects, and creating a network of regional oil and gas pipelines for the larger benefit of the Central and South Asian region. 
• Regular meetings with the leaders of the region at highest political level. 
• Quick and effective operationalisation of connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port, INSTC agreement and Ashgabat Agreement to give connectivity a push. 
• Coordination with the region in especially checking rising extremism and terrorist groups. This is especially important in the wake of rise of Taliban in Afghanistan.

3. Eu – Connectivity Program

European Union has unveiled its connectivity program, known as the Golden Gateway, to counter the Chinese Belt Road Initiative. In this backdrop let us understand the key aspects of the program, India--EU connectivity initiative and likely challenges for these connectivity programs.

Global Gateway Program – European Union

• EU has unveiled its €300 billion ($340 billion) Golden Gateway Program which is an alternative to China's Belt and Road initiative. 
• The program aims to help underpin the global recovery by mobilizing investments in digital, clean energy and transport networks, as well as boosting health, education and research systems across the world. 
• It aims at creating strong and sustainable links, not dependencies (a reference to Debt Trap of Chinese BRI projects), between Europe and the world and build a new future.

Need for Connectivity Program

• China has been accused of Debt trap Diplomacy via its Infrastructure development under the BRI. 
• Addressing Infrastructure investment gap: Low and middle-income countries were already facing a $2.7 trillion infrastructure investment gap before the pandemic, according to World Bank estimates. 
• It will be financed by a mix of €18 billion ($20 billion) in grants and €280 billion ($317 billion) in investments from member states, their development banks, the private sector and EU financing bodies, including the European Investment Bank. 

Focus Areas of Golden Gateway Program

• Digitalization: European Union will invest in fibre optic cables between countries, satellite communications and cloud infrastructure to better facilitate global cooperation, data sharing and AI development. 
• Clean energy 
  • Integrate EU’s energy systems, transition to renewables and partner with other countries to boost renewable hydrogen production. 
  • It will also work to eliminate barriers to the international trade of hydrogen. 
• Transport: In the most direct challenge to China's initiative, European Union will invest in transport infrastructure — railways, roads, ports, airports and border crossings — to help develop countries and diversify their supply chains. 
• Health: In response to the pandemic, the new EU plan aims to help countries develop local vaccine manufacturing capacity and diversify their pharmaceutical supply chains. 
• Education and research: European Union wants to further invest in education globally, including the expansion of online learning. 

India - Eu Connectivity Partnership

The partnership has been built upon EU-India Strategic Partnership: A Roadmap for 2025, and ties into the larger European pivot towards Asia, conceptualised in the EU Indo-Pacific strategy released in 2021.

Objectives of India-Eu Connectivity Partnership

• EU-India cooperation on connectivity is based on shared values of “democracy, freedom, rule of law, and respect for human rights” and operational principles of transparency, viability, inclusivity, and sustainability. 
• Strengthening and expanding the existing network of economic, social, and political bonds that tie the two regions together, as well as bringing in thirdparty countries, through a combination of soft and hard connectivity initiatives. 
• Focus Areas: Digital, transport, energy, and people-topeople connectivity. 
• Financing: Financing is expected to partially originate from European and Indian public agencies, but significant emphasis is put on the essential role that the private sector is poised to play, to ensure diversity in investment streams and achieve mutually beneficial gains. EU has created a financing instrument for external action into one budgetary mechanism known as the “Neighborhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument” (NDICI). 
• Implications: It can change the dynamics in the Indian Ocean region by establishing fairer, and more transparent framework of infrastructural investment. India - EU closeness can provide alternative third pole to the US-China binary.

Challenges To the Program

• Such initiatives will be difficult to implement because of the bureaucratic overgrowth that has stifled EU global action so far. 
• Over-reliance on involving Private sector and financial institutions as a form of financing is going to lead to the EU losing control of their connectivity initiatives to their partners on the ground. Such financing would also impact political visibility of such projects specially when it comes to countering Chinese BRI. 
• Internal divergences among the EU members will further slow down decision-making and implementation. 
• China is becoming assertive with its BRI initiatives, which will be difficult for EU to counter. Chinese projects move faster, due to a general lack of due process in the bidding phase, they are backed by readily available loans, and they do not entail the kind of conditionalities that EU would apply. 
• The notion of sustainability, comprehensiveness, transparency, and fairness—could be perceived as additional costs or impossibly high standards by developing countries. It can lead to unnecessary Global competition. 
• Originate projects that respond to macro-level strategic considerations rather than on the ground connectivity needs.

4. India – Russia

Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited India and initiated the first ever 2+2 dialogue between the foreign and the defence ministers between the two countries. 28 agreements were signed, however some important agreements like RELOS were not finalised. Also, there was a shadow of increasing closeness between Russia and China and increasing closeness between India and the USA in the Indo-Pacific region.

Key Outcomes of The Visit

• It was only the second foreign visit of Russian president since the Pandemic started. He called India as a “Great power” highlighting the prominent position India has in the Global geo-politics. 
• The two sides met for the first time in the 2+2 format- with External Affairs Defence Minister from both sides. 
• Renewal of military and defence partnership for 10 years to 2031, broadening the defence cooperation. 
• Cleared a deal to manufacture Russian AK-203 rifles in Uttar Pradesh in a joint venture, which will see technology transferred by Russia to India. 
• 28 agreements on everything ranging from Oil and Energy to intellectual property rights and Culture were signed. 
• Delivery of S-400 missile defence system has already started. 
• Joint projects in third countries of Asia – Both already have a joint nuclear power project in Bangladesh’s Rooppur .
• Important agreements like bilateral logistics support deal Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS), as well as a Navy-to-Navy cooperation MoU were discussed but weren’t announced.

On Afghanistan

• Support for a peaceful Afghanistan, noninterference in internal affairs, and humanitarian assistance. 
• Afghanistan must not be used for terror groups mentioned LeT along with ISIS and Al Qaeda.
• Permanent consultative mechanism on Afghanistan between the NSAs of both countries, and a Roadmap of cooperation on Afghanistan 
• Welcomed the Delhi Regional Security Dialogue of NSAs, held by NSA Doval.

Defence Cooperation and Issues

• Defence Mechanism - Inter-Governmental Commission on Military Technical Cooperation The relation has Evolved from “a purely buyer-seller relationship to joint research, design development and production of state-of-the-art military platforms”. Example: Joint development of Brahmos missile. 
• Both are also involved in indigenous production and development of tanks and fighter jets, along with the upgrade of existing systems. 
• S-400 Triumph Air Defence Missile System, Four Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates, manufacture of Ka226T helicopters in India.

Issues in Defence Cooperation

• Russia still commands 58 percent of total arms imports by India, followed by Israel and the US at 15 and 12 percent, respectively. This figure, however, is a step down from 2010-14 when Russia had a share of 70 percent of the Indian defence market. 
• India desires to diversify its defence imports and therefore a heightened competition for Russia with other suppliers. 
• Dissatisfaction in India with post-sales services and maintenance being offered by Russia. 
• Cost escalation because of the delays in supply is another concern. 
• High cost and low quality of spare parts for weaponry imported from Russia. 
• Threat of US’ CAATSA law sanctions also pose a concern.

Economic Relations

• Economic Mechanism - Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGCTEC) 
• Bilateral trade is not much significant - from April 2020-March 2021 amounted USD 8.1 billion. Indian exports amounted USD 2.6 billion while imports from Russia amounted USD 5.48 billion.

Issues in Economic Relations

• There is deficit in trade in favour of Russia. 
• Reason for lack of growth of trade relations: o Lack of involvement of the private sector o Absence of logistics o Poor connectivity o stalling of the International North-South Economic Corridor, resulting in higher costs. 
• Indo-Russia energy sector has in recent years seen increased cooperation through two-way investment. However, difficulties involved in direct supply through pipelines remain. 
• Action Plan for Prioritization and Implementation of Cooperation Areas in the Nuclear Field. 
• The two-way investment target set at $50 billion by 2025. 
• Looking for alternative routes to deal with the logistics issue, India has indicated its intent to establish a shipping corridor from Chennai to Vladivostok, which would reduce the time for goods to be shipped to the Russian Far East.

Changing Geo – Politics – Its Impact on Relationship

• India’s increasing alignment with the US: India is aligning with US in the Quad in the Indo-Pacific strategy. Russia is increasingly wary of NATO’s eastward extension till its borders. 
• Russia’ view of Quad: Russia views Quad as an ‘Asian NATO’ and has compared it with ‘Cold War’ era tactics. Russia thinks that Quad and Indo – Pacific conception is primarily an American initiative designed to contain both China and Russia. 
• Russia – China bonhomie: Russia and China have convergence over anti-American foreign policy and share a vision for a multi-polar world. Russia’s economy critically depends on oil & gas exports. China being the largest importer of oil & gas is a big market for Russia’s exports. Russia supports Belt & Road initiative. 
• Defence and energy exports to China: Close to 77% of China’s arms imports came from Russia during 2016- 20. China is a major and large buyer of Russia’s oil & gas. This has deepened economic relations between both. 
• Arctic Geo-politics: Cooperation on the Arctic where both Russia and China seek to develop sea lines for shorter trade routes. China is particularly interested in this as it will reduce its vulnerability on Strait of Malacca. 
• Deepening of Russia & Pakistan Relations: It is facilitated by China-Pak axis, Russia sees Pakistan as a zipper state, cooperation is increasing on energy sector and on Afghanistan issue.

Way Forward

• Russian preoccupation with Russia’s ‘status’ rivalry with the U.S has largely impacted Russia's view of India-China relations. 
• India should pursue the normalisation of relations between US and Russia, while diminishing Russia's propensity to coordinate its South Asian policies with China. 
• Russia might not always be the most powerful player, but it retains significant capacity to act both as a spoiler and a facilitator in Eurasia and has seen a resurgence of influence in West Asia. 
• India and Russia will continue to pursue their respective trajectories in world affairs, coordination on mutually beneficial issues will be vital in this period of flux in the global system. 
• After Taliban’s takeover, leveraging relations with Russia can be a key strategy for India in Afghanistan. Example: NSA talks between India, Russia, Central Asian republics etc. 
• There is a need for improving Economic cooperation – Improving logistics – FTA with EAEU etc. 
• Besides defence cooperation should be nurtured on the lines of joint development and technology transfer and indigenisation.

5. Naga Issue

The recent killings of civilians in the Nagaland by the Assam Rifles in a botched operation has cast shadows on the Naga Peace process. This has brought the Naga issue at the forefront and has raised questions about the abuse of powers under the AFSPA act. In this backdrop let us understand the Naga Issue in detail.

Origin of the Naga Issue

• British annexed Assam in 1826 and 1881 and Naga hills became a part of British India. 
• In 1918, Naga Club was formed - opposed the Simon Commission. 
• 1946 - Naga National Council (NNC) under the leadership of Angami Zapu Phizo, declared Nagaland an independent state on August 14, 1947. 
• NNC resolved to establish a “sovereign Naga state” and conducted a “referendum” in 1951, in which “99 per cent” supported an “independent” Nagaland. 
• In 1952 - underground Naga Federal Government (NFG) and the Naga Federal Army (NFA) was formed. 
• The Government of India sent in the Army to crush the insurgency and, in 1958, enacted the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act. Peace efforts 
• In 1964 a peace mission was formed and the NNC signed an agreement to suspend operations. 
• But the NNC/NFG/NFA continued to indulge in violence, and after six rounds of talks, the Peace Mission was abandoned in 1967, and a massive counter-insurgency operation launched 
• Shillong Accord 1975 - Under this section of NNC and NFG agreed to give up arms.

NSCN - National Socialist Council of Nagaland

• A group of NAGA leaders led by Thuingaleng Muivah, who were in China, refused to accept the Shillong Accord and formed the NSCN in 1980. 
• In 1988, the NSCN split into NSCN (Isak Muivah) and NSCN (Khaplang) after a violent clash 
• With the formation of NSCN, the NNC began to fade away. Phizo the leader of NNC died in London in 1991, the NSCN (IM) came to be seen as the “mother of all insurgencies” in the region.

NSCN (IM) – Demands

• A “Greater Nagalim” comprising “all contiguous Naga-inhabited areas” along with Nagaland. It included several districts of Assam, Arunachal and Manipur, and a large tract of Myanmar. 
• Governments of Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh have resented these claims. 
• After negotiations by one government after the other at the Centre, Government of India signed a ceasefire agreement with NSCN (IM) on July 25, 1997, which came into effect on August 1, 1997.

Framework Agreement with NSCN – im and the Stalemate

It was signed by the interlocutor for Naga peace talks, R.N. Ravi on behalf of the Centre with National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) and seven Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs) to find a solution to the Naga political issue.

Disagreement Over Separate Constitution and Flag

• While NNPG groups agree with the 2015 agreement, the NSCN - IM has said that an accord cannot happen until the Centre accepts Naga people’s demand for a separate constitution and flag. 
• Centre has refused to accept the demands of a separate constitution and flag leading to a stalemate in the peace talks. 
• Centre has suggested alternatives - such as cultural flag instead of a national flag and dealing with issues of a constitution after signing the agreement.

Change in Situation Post Abrogation of Article 370

• When Naga Framework Agreement was signed in 2015 the provision of Separate flag and constitution were acceptable given the existence of a state with similar arrangement in the form of erstwhile state of J&K. 
• However, post 2019 with the abrogation of Article 370, the government is not willing to provide these concessions to the Nagas due to political calculations. 

Ambiguous Wording of The Framework Agreement

• Talks broke down in 2020 and NSCN – IM revealed the details of the Agreement. 
• NSCN – IM has accused the interlocutor of High Handedness: It has accused the interlocutor of deleting a key word from the original document and sharing the modified version with other Naga groups. 
• The Group has raised the deletion of word “New” from the original phrase used in the agreement - “enduring inclusive new relationship of peaceful co-existence of the two entities.” 
• The NSCN(I-M) says the word ‘new’ is politically sensitive as it goes to define the meaning of peaceful co-existence of the two entities (two sovereign powers). 
• Phrases such as “unique history and position”, “sovereignty lies with the people”, “sharing sovereign power”, and “peaceful coexistence of the two entities” were open to interpretation by both sides. 

Organised Armed Gangs

• Interlocutor had warned Nagaland government that half a dozen organized armed gangs were brazenly running their respective ‘so called governments’ challenging the legitimacy of the State Government.” 
• He resigned as interlocutor following the stalemate. 

Recent Civilian Killings and The Naga Peace Talks

• It has the potential to revive the narrative of India versus the Naga people. 
• The killings could be exploited by certain insurgent groups to recruit and even strengthen the hands of the NSCN(I-M). Seven NNPG groups which support early conclusion of peace talks will be hesitant to come to table in the backdrop of the public anger. 
• All the groups have criticised the AFSPA act and have made the finalisation of talks contingent upon repeal of the AFSPA law.

Armed Forces Special Powers Act – AFSPA

• The recent killings of civilians in the Nagaland by the Assam Rifles in a botched operation has raised questions about the abuse of powers under the AFSPA act. 
• There have been calls of repeal of the AFSPA act by the Naga groups as well as the CMs of Nagaland and Meghalaya. 

About The Armed Forces Special Powers Act, 1958 (AFSPA)

• AFSPA is an act of the Parliament of India that grants special powers to the Indian Armed Forces to maintain public order in "disturbed areas". 
• Currently, AFSPA is applicable to the seven states of the North-East, i.e., Assam, Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Tripura. It was brought for J&K in 1990. 
• It was applied to Punjab in 1983 and later repealed. 

Current Status in The Northeast States

• AFSPA, was removed from entire Tripura in 2015 and from Meghalaya in 2018.
• AFSPA continues to be in force in Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and three districts of Arunachal Pradesh. 

Objective of Enactment of AFSPA

Keeping in view the duty of the Union under Article 355 of the Constitution, interalia, to protect every State against internal disturbance, it is considered desirable that the Central government should also have power to declare areas as 'disturbed', to enable its armed forces to exercise the special powers. Powers of the central and the State Government – Section 3 AFSPA empowers the governor of the state as well as the central government to declare any part of the state as a 'disturbed area', if in its opinion there exists a dangerous situation in the said area which makes it necessary to deploy armed forces in the region. Powers provided to Army officers under the AFSPA – Section 4 

• After giving due warning, fire upon or use other kinds of force even if it causes death. 
• Destroy any arms dump, hide-outs, prepared or fortified position or shelter or training camp. 
• To arrest without a warrant anyone who has committed cognizable offences or is suspected of having done so and may use force if needed for the arrest. 
• To enter and search any premise to make such arrests, or to recover any person wrongfully restrained or any arms, ammunition or explosive substances and seize it. 
• Stop and search any vehicle or vessel suspected to be carrying such person or weapons. 
• Any person arrested and taken into custody under this act shall be made present over to the officer in charge of the nearest police station with least delay, together with a report of the circumstances occasioning the arrest. 
• Army officers have legal immunity for their actions. 
• There can be no prosecution, suit or any other legal proceeding against anyone acting under that law. 
• Protection of persons acting in good faith under this act from prosecution, suit or other legal proceedings, except with the sanction of the Central Government, in exercise of the powers conferred by this act. 

Arguments In Favour of AFSPA

• Needed to maintain morale of the force. 
• Insurgents will gain upper hand in absence of it. 
• Troops need such powers because the army is only deployed when national security is at serious risk from armed combatants. 
• Provides legal backing for the Armed Forces to act in domestic civilian areas. Currently, the armed forces act enables them to only act against enemies. 

Arguments Against AFSPA

• Provision for immunity of security forces urges them to act more brutally. 
• AFSPA is seen as one of the major reasons for increasing radicalization in insurgency ridden areas because of the little accountability for the excesses committed in discharge of power given by the act. 
• Instances of abuse and extra-judicial killings in Manipur have been upheld by even Supreme court in 2016. The Supreme Court in this case ruled that the armed forces cannot escape investigation for excesses during the discharge of their duty even in “disturbed areas”. 
• Though there are many violent insurrections in India which must be handled militarily but in the short run. Even after so many years, if the situation in these states has not changed, this points to some flaws in the law itself. 

Checks And Balances to Stop Misuse of AFSPA

1. Supreme court in 1998 on constitutionality of AFSPA 

• Upheld the constitutional Validity of AFSPA. 
• Declaration of disturbed areas: 
  • A Suo-motto declaration can be made by the Central Government; however, it is desirable that the state government should be consulted by the Central Government before making the declaration. 
  • AFSPA does not confer arbitrary powers to declare an area as a 'disturbed area. o Declaration must be for a limited duration and there should be a periodic review of the declaration 6 months have expired. 
• While exercising the powers conferred upon him by AFSPA, the authorised officer should use minimal force necessary for effective action. 
• The authorised officer should strictly follow the 'Dos and Don'ts' issued by the army. 

2. Santosh Hegde commission on Manipur encounter deaths 

• AFSPA was an impediment to achieving peace in regions such as J&K and the Northeast. 
• The law needs to be reviewed every six months to see whether its implementation is necessary in states where it is being enforced. 
• AFSPA does not provide blanket Immunity to the officers. Suggested fixing a period of three months for the central government to decide whether to prosecute security personnel engaged in extrajudicial killings or unruly behaviour in insurgencyhit regions. 
• • Action can be taken but with prior sanction of the Central Government. 

3. BP Jeevan Reddy Commission in 2004 

• AFSPA should be repealed, and appropriate provisions should be inserted in the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, 1967. 
• Unlawful Activities (UAPA) Act should be modified to clearly specify the powers of the armed forces and paramilitary forces. 
• Grievance redressal cells should be set up in each district where the armed forces are deployed. 

4. Second Administrative Reforms Commission 

• • Recommended to repeal of Armed Forces Special Powers Act, 1958. Its scrapping would remove sentiments of discrimination and alienation among the people of the Northeast India. 
• • Amend the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, 1967 inserting a new chapter to deploy the armed forces of the Union in the North-eastern States. 
• • It supported a new doctrine of policing and criminal justice inherent in an inclusive approach to governance. 

Way Forward

The army must be completely transparent in investigating allegations of violations of human rights and bringing the violators to speedy justice. Exemplary punishment must be meted out where the charges are proved.