Global Climate Change | Geography Optional for UPSC (Notes) PDF Download

Since Greta Thunberg began her protest in front of the Swedish Parliament in August 2018, numerous "climate strikes" have taken place across the globe. However, these protests and the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events, such as unpredictable monsoons, prolonged droughts, and frequent cyclones, have not yet spurred global leaders to take significant action to address climate change. In the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, released by the environmental think tank Germanwatch, India was ranked as the seventh worst-affected country in 2019. If urgent measures are not implemented, the upcoming decade may become increasingly perilous due to uncontrolled and accelerated climate change.

What is climate change?

• Climate change refers to the long-term alteration of Earth's climate due to changes in the atmosphere and the interactions between the atmosphere and various other geological, chemical, biological, and geographical factors within the Earth's system. It can lead to unpredictable weather patterns, which can have significant impacts on agriculture, especially in countries that rely heavily on farming, such as India.
• One of the consequences of climate change is the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and cyclones. These events can cause widespread damage and devastation.
• Another major impact of climate change is the accelerated melting of polar ice due to rising global temperatures. This leads to rising sea levels, which in turn results in increased flooding and erosion of coastlines.
• The primary cause of the current rapid climate change is human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. These actions are putting the survival of humanity at risk by contributing to the ongoing and potentially irreversible changes to our planet's climate.

What are the factors that cause climate change?

• Natural Factors: Various natural factors contribute to Earth's climate change, affecting the climate over thousands to millions of years.
• Continental Drift: Continents today were not the same as they were 200 million years ago. They were formed when the Earth's landmass began to drift apart due to plate displacement. This movement affected climate change by altering the physical features and positions of landmasses and water bodies, such as ocean currents and winds. The drifting of landmasses continues today, with the Himalayan range rising approximately 1 millimeter every year as the Indian landmass moves towards the Asian landmass.
• Variation of the Earth's Orbit: The Earth's orbit influences the seasonal distribution of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface. Even a slight change in the Earth's orbit can cause variations in distribution worldwide. While there are minimal changes to average sunshine, this factor greatly impacts the geographical and seasonal distribution. There are three types of orbital variations – variations in Earth's eccentricity, variations in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's axis. These factors together can cause Milankovitch cycles, which significantly impact the climate and are known for their connection to glacial and interglacial periods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found that Milankovitch cycles have influenced ice formation behavior.
• Plate Tectonics: Temperature changes in the Earth's core create mantle plumes and convection currents that force Earth's plates to adjust, leading to the rearrangement of Earth's plate. This process can influence global and local climate and atmospheric patterns. Since the position of continents determines the geometry of oceans, their location affects ocean patterns and the global climate. The position of the sea also plays a critical role in controlling heat and moisture transfer across the globe. A recent example of tectonic control on ocean circulation is the formation of the Isthmus of Panama about 5 million years ago, which prevented the direct mixing of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
• Volcanic Activity: Volcanic eruptions release gases and dust particles that partially block sunlight, leading to a cooling effect on the climate. Although volcanic activities may last only a few days, the gases and ashes they release can persist for extended periods and influence climate patterns. Sulfur oxide emitted by volcanic activities can combine with water to form tiny droplets of sulfuric acid, which can remain in the air for several years.
• Ocean Currents: Ocean currents are a major component of the climate system. They are driven by horizontal winds that cause water movement against the sea surface. The temperature differences in the water significantly influence the climate of a region.

Anthropogenic Factors:
Scientists, since the beginning of the 20th century, have studied the impact of climate change caused by human activities. Global warming, the long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth’s climate system, is a major aspect of climate change. It is mainly a human-caused increase in global surface temperature. The anthropogenic factors causing climate change are as follows:

1. Greenhouse Gases: Greenhouse gases (GHGs) absorb heat radiation from the sun. Since the Industrial Revolution, the emission of GHGs into the atmosphere has increased dramatically, causing more heat to be absorbed and retained in the atmosphere, leading to a rise in global temperature. While these gases do not absorb much solar radiation, they do absorb most of the infrared emitted by Earth's surface. The main greenhouse gases are water vapor (the most abundant GHG but with a lesser impact), carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), methane, and nitrous oxide. The concentration of CO2 has increased by 30% since the start of the industrial revolution, with deforestation also contributing to this increase.
2. Changes in Land Use Patterns: Around half of the land-use changes occurred during the industrial era, with forests being replaced by agricultural crops and grazing lands. Deforestation has led to an increase in albedo (the reflectivity of an object in space), particularly in snow-covered regions, resulting in the cooling of the planet's surface. Tropical deforestation also affects evapotranspiration rates (the amount of water vapor released into the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration from trees), leading to desertification and changes in soil moisture characteristics. Satellite imagery shows that clearing forest cover for agriculture and irrigation in arid and semi-arid areas can increase solar energy absorption and the amount of moisture evaporated into the atmosphere.
3. Atmospheric Aerosols: Atmospheric aerosols can scatter and absorb solar and infrared radiation, alter the microphysical and chemical properties of clouds, and directly affect climate change by absorbing or reflecting solar radiation. They can also have indirect effects by modifying cloud formation and properties. Aerosols can be transported thousands of kilometers away from their source through wind and upper-level atmospheric circulation. There are two types of aerosols: natural and anthropogenic (human-caused). Natural aerosols come from sources such as volcanic eruptions and biogenic sources like plankton, while anthropogenic aerosols are produced by activities like burning coal and oil, industrial processes, vehicle emissions, and burning biomass. The concentration of aerosols is about three times higher in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, leading to a 50% higher radiation concentration in the Northern Hemisphere.

What are the effects of climate change?

• Human activities are causing an increase in the release of greenhouse gases, which in turn is leading to a rise in Earth's temperature. The last six years have been the hottest ever recorded, illustrating the severity of the issue. This increase in temperature is significantly contributing to a rise in heat-related deaths and illnesses, higher sea levels, and a greater intensity of natural disasters.
• During the 20th century, Earth's average temperature increased by 1°F, which is thought to be the most rapid rise in the past millennium. If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, research suggests that the average surface temperature could increase by 3-5°F by the end of the century.

Change in landscapes:

• Rising temperatures and alterations in climate and weather patterns worldwide have caused trees and plants to shift towards Polar Regions and mountains. As vegetation adapts to these changes by relocating to colder areas, the animals that rely on them for survival are forced to follow suit.
• Although some may successfully adapt, many will likely perish in the process. Species like polar bears, which depend on cold environments, face significant risks to their survival as their habitats are threatened by melting ice. Consequently, the rapid transformation of the Earth's landscape poses a considerable threat to the existence of numerous species, including humans.

A risk to the ecosystem:

• Global temperature increases are causing alterations in weather and vegetation patterns, forcing many species to migrate to cooler regions for survival. 
• This situation presents a significant risk to the survival of countless species. If the current trend persists, it is estimated that by 2050, a quarter of the planet's species could face extinction.

Rising sea levels:

• An increase in Earth's temperature contributes to a rise in sea levels due to thermal expansion, a phenomenon where warmer water occupies more space than cooler water. Additionally, the melting of glaciers further exacerbates this issue. Populations residing in low-lying regions, islands, and coastal areas are at risk from these rising sea levels.
• As a result, shorelines erode, properties sustain damage, and vital ecosystems such as mangroves and wetlands, which provide protection against storms, are destroyed. Over the past century, sea levels have risen between 4 and 8 inches, and it is projected that they will continue to rise between 4 and 36 inches in the next 100 years.

Ocean Acidification:

• The rising concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere has led to a higher absorption of CO₂ by the ocean. This, in turn, causes the ocean's acidity to increase. 
• Many marine species, such as plankton and mollusks, are negatively affected by this increase in ocean acidification. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable, as the increased acidity makes it challenging for them to form and maintain the skeletal structures essential for their survival.

Increase in the risk of natural and manmade disasters:

• The risk of natural and manmade disasters is increasing due to various factors, such as high atmospheric temperatures that lead to rapid evaporation of moisture from land and water sources. This results in droughts, which make affected areas more vulnerable to the detrimental effects of floods. As a consequence, droughts may become more frequent and severe, leading to negative impacts on agriculture, water security, and human health.
• Countries in Asia and Africa are already experiencing this phenomenon, with droughts becoming increasingly prolonged and intense. Moreover, the rise in temperature is not only causing droughts but also leading to a higher incidence of forest fires worldwide.
• Climate change is further contributing to the increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms, which have disastrous effects on both human societies and the environment. This is due to the warming of ocean waters, as warmer waters fuel the energy of hurricanes and tropical storms.

The other factors that cause intensified hurricane and tropical storms are raising sea levels, disappearing wetlands and increased coastal development.

Health issues:

• Global warming poses significant health risks, as increased temperatures can lead to more deaths and illnesses. One example of this is the rise in heatwaves caused by climate change, which has already resulted in numerous fatalities. In 2003, for instance, extreme heatwaves claimed the lives of over 20,000 people in Europe and more than 1,500 people in India.
• Moreover, climate change has the potential to exacerbate the spread of infectious diseases, as warmer temperatures allow disease-carrying organisms such as insects, animals, and microbes to survive for longer periods. As a result, diseases and pests that were previously limited to tropical regions may now be able to thrive in areas that were once too cold for them.
• The increasing number of deaths due to extreme heat, natural disasters, and diseases can be linked to climate change. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that, between 2030 and 2050, climate change could lead to approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year, resulting from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat-related illnesses.

Economic impacts:

• Experts estimate that if no action is taken to reduce carbon emissions, climate change could result in a loss of 5 to 20% of the annual global GDP. In comparison, investing just 1% of GDP could significantly mitigate the most damaging effects of climate change.
• As climate change alters shoreline habitats, there may be a need to relocate ports and near-shore infrastructure, which could cost millions of dollars. Additionally, the increase in hurricanes and other natural disasters could lead to extreme economic losses due to property damage and infrastructure destruction.
• Longer droughts and higher temperatures caused by climate change can lead to reduced crop yields, potentially resulting in starvation for thousands of people. Coral reefs, which generate around $375 billion per year in goods and services, are also under threat due to climate change, affecting economies reliant on these ecosystems.

Agriculture productivity and food security:

• Agricultural productivity and food security are closely tied to climate patterns, as crop cultivation relies on solar radiation, favorable temperatures, and rainfall. With the ongoing changes in the climate, agricultural productivity, food supply, and food security have been significantly impacted. These effects can be observed in biophysical, ecological, and economic aspects.
• As a result of climate change, agricultural and climate zones have been shifting towards the poles. This has led to alterations in agricultural production patterns due to increased atmospheric temperatures. Additionally, agricultural productivity has experienced growth due to the rise in CO₂ levels in the atmosphere.
• However, the unpredictability of precipitation patterns has created challenges for agriculture. This unpredictability has increased the vulnerability of landless and impoverished populations who rely heavily on agriculture for their livelihoods and sustenance.

How is climate change affecting India?

• Climate change poses a significant threat to India due to its diverse terrain, rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic growth. As the country strives to protect its diminishing natural resources, it faces environmental and socio-economic challenges, including worsening water and air quality due to pollution. Coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and agricultural productivity are particularly vulnerable to climate change.
• The increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters negatively impact India's economy, leading to poverty, vulnerability to diseases, and loss of income and livelihoods. According to the World Bank, a 2°C increase in the world's average temperature in the coming decades will make India's monsoon patterns more unpredictable. This will result in some areas experiencing floods, while others face water scarcity.
• India's agriculture sector, which over 60% of the population relies on for survival, is heavily dependent on rainfall, making the country more susceptible to climate change. By the 2050s, it is estimated that a 2-2.5°C temperature increase will reduce water availability in the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins, threatening the food security of approximately 63 million people.
• The rate of poverty reduction will also slow down due to rising atmospheric temperatures, with the poor being more vulnerable to climate change as they often rely on rain-dependent agriculture. An increase of 2°C by the 2040s is expected to impact crop production, reducing output by 12% and necessitating more imports to meet domestic demands. In addition, the decreasing availability of food may lead to significant health issues, particularly among women and children.
• Lastly, the melting glaciers and loss of snow pose a risk to reliable water resources in India. Major rivers such as the Ganges, Indus, and Brahmaputra primarily depend on snow and glacial meltwater, making them vulnerable to global warming.

What are the efforts taken at the international level to combat climate change?

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) to create a platform for governments to study the impacts of global warming collectively. 
• As a United Nations entity, the IPCC is dedicated to evaluating the scientific research associated with climate change. It regularly supplies policymakers with comprehensive assessments of climate change, its consequences, and possible future risks, while also offering options for adaptation and mitigation. 
• In this way, the IPCC works in harmony with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address the global challenge of climate change.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC):

• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty that was enforced on March 21, 1994. It has been ratified by 195 countries, which are referred to as the Parties to the Convention. The UNFCCC is one of three Rio Conventions adopted at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, alongside the UN Convention on Biological Diversity and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification. To ensure cooperation among these conventions, the Joint Liaison Group was established, which also includes the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands.
• The primary goal of the UNFCCC is to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to prevent dangerous human-induced interference with the climate system. It aims to achieve this target within a specific timeframe, allowing ecosystems to naturally adapt to climate change while maintaining food security and supporting sustainable economic development.
• Following the establishment of the UNFCCC, the first Conference of Parties (COP1) was held in Berlin, the second (COP2) in Geneva, and the third (COP3) in Kyoto. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted during COP3 to ensure the implementation of the UNFCCC's objectives.

Kyoto Protocol:
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted on December 11, 1997, in Kyoto, Japan, and came into effect on February 16, 2005. This international treaty commits its signatories to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, holding developed countries responsible for the current high levels of emissions due to their historical role in the industrial revolution.

• The 7th Conference of the Parties (COP 7) took place in Morocco in 2001, and the detailed rules for implementing the Kyoto Protocol were adopted, known as the "Marrakesh Accords." The Kyoto Protocol also established a Flexible Mechanism, or Kyoto Mechanism, to reduce the overall cost of achieving emission reduction targets. This mechanism includes Emission Trading, the Clean Development Mechanism, and Joint Implementation.

In December 2012, the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol was adopted, introducing several changes:

• New commitments were made by Annex I Parties (developed countries and Economies in Transition) for the period from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2020.
• A revised list of GHGs that Parties must report during the second commitment period was established.
• Several articles of the Kyoto Protocol were updated to align with the second commitment period.

Overall, the Kyoto Protocol represents a critical step towards reducing global emissions and stabilizing GHG levels in the atmosphere.

Paris Agreement:

• The Paris Agreement, signed in 2016, is the world's first comprehensive climate accord, aiming to keep global temperatures well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and further limiting them to 1.5°C. It seeks to enhance nations' capacity to fight the negative effects of climate change and requires the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities to levels that can be naturally absorbed by trees, soil, and oceans.
• Under the Agreement, countries must review their efforts to cut emissions every five years. It also mandates that wealthier nations provide financial support to help developing countries transition to renewable energy sources. While some aspects of the agreement are binding, such as reporting requirements, individual countries' emission targets are not.
• The Paris Agreement requires all participating countries to put forth their best efforts through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and to continually enhance these efforts. This includes regular reporting on emissions and implementation progress.
• India's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) commits to reducing its GDP's emissions intensity by 33-35% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The country has also pledged to increase non-fossil fuel-based electricity's share to 40% by 2030 and expand its forest cover to absorb 2.5-3 billion tonnes of CO2 by the same year.

REDD+

• Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) is a strategy developed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address climate change. This mechanism assigns a monetary value to the carbon stored in forests, providing financial incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from forested areas and invest in sustainable, low-carbon development initiatives. These countries receive payments based on their efforts to reduce emissions and promote sustainable forest management.
• REDD encompasses more than just preventing deforestation and forest degradation; it also includes conservation efforts, sustainable forest management, and enhancing forest carbon stocks. It is estimated that the financial support provided through REDD for reducing greenhouse gas emissions could amount to as much as $30 billion per year.
• This increased flow of funds from developed to developing countries can significantly contribute to reducing carbon emissions while promoting inclusive development. Additionally, it has the potential to improve biodiversity conservation and protect essential ecosystem services. Forests play a critical role in absorbing carbon dioxide, making it crucial to enhance their resilience to climate change.

What are the measures taken by the Indian government to combat climate change?

• India is the fifth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), contributing to approximately 5% of global emissions. Between 1990 and 2005, India's emissions increased by 65%, and they are expected to rise by another 70% by 2020. India is highly vulnerable to climate change due to increased natural disasters, depleting natural resources, and its strong dependence on agriculture and rainfall.
• Despite these challenges, India is taking several measures to adapt to and mitigate climate change. These include increasing energy efficiency, promoting a circular economic model, and encouraging the use of renewable energy. India is among the few countries that have increased the Clean Energy Cess on coal, and it has established a Clean Energy Fund worth approximately $3 billion to promote clean technologies.
• The Indian government is also investing in afforestation to increase the country's carbon sink. India has set a target of having 33% of its geographical area covered by forests. According to the biennial State of India's Forest Report 2019, the country's total forest cover is currently 21.67% of its total geographical area.
• Additionally, India has allocated about $200 million for the National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC). This initiative aims to support activities that can mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Projects funded by the NAFCC focus on adaptation in sectors such as agriculture, animal husbandry, water, forestry, and tourism. These projects are implemented in a project mode to ensure efficient and targeted use of resources.

Other initiatives include 100 smart cities, National Mission for Clean
National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)
As a part of the NAPCC, the Indian government had launched 8 missions on focused areas. They are:

• National Solar Mission
• National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency
• National Mission on Sustainable Habitat
• National Water Mission
• National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem
• National Mission for a “Green India” Goals
• National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture
• National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change

National Action Programme to Combat Desertification:

• India is one of the parties of UNCCD.
• The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change is the National Coordination Agency for the implementation of the UNCCD at the national level.
• India has framed the 20-year comprehensive National Action Programme (NAP) to address the problem of desertification within the nation. The objectives include:
• Drought management, preparedness, and mitigation
• Development based on a community approach
• Promote the improvement of local communities’ quality of life
• Promote awareness
• Promote suitable research and development initiatives and interventions.
• Promoting self-governance to empower local communities so that they can deal with issues pertaining to climate change.

India in the international forums on climate change:

• India is currently setting up voluntary targets in the international forums to commit itself to the mission to combat climate change. It is also playing a major role in climate change mitigation.
• India’s proactive role in mitigating climate change is due to the domestic compulsion of tackling issues like the need for poverty eradication, food and nutritional security, universalization of health and education, water security, sustainable energy, employment
• India is of the opinion that the developing countries’ need for inclusive growth, sustainable development, poverty eradication and universal access to energy must be made the fundamental differentiation between them and the developed nations. Currently, the Conventions recognise that the historical emissions of the developed nations as the basis for differentiation between the developed and developing nations.

What is stopping us from mitigating climate change?

• Transitional costs: These are the expenses involved in acquiring information and adjusting to new conditions, such as replacing long-lived capital.
• Market failures and missing markets: This refers to situations where externalities, information asymmetries, and moral hazards exist. These issues arise when one economic entity harms another or when there are insufficient incentives for change.
• Behavioral obstacles: Irrational decisions, social norms, and cultural factors can also impede adaptation efforts.
• Ethical and distributional issues: Decisions may be constrained by ethical considerations or differences in vulnerability and adaptive capacity.
• Coordination, government failures, and politics: Governments should work to overcome the aforementioned barriers, but they may face similar challenges, such as limited knowledge or resources. Additionally, coordinating efforts between various departments can be difficult, and political disputes about the reality of climate change may prevent governments from taking necessary actions.
• Uncertainty: A major barrier to adaptation is the uncertainty surrounding future developments in demographics, technologies, economics, and climate change itself.

Conclusion

Climate change is a reality that must be acknowledged and not turned into a political issue. Collaborating on a global scale is crucial in order to lessen the negative consequences of climate change. Moreover, it is essential to combine efforts in climate change mitigation with adaptation strategies, as solely focusing on mitigation will not sufficiently address the current negative impacts. A thorough plan of action at the international level is needed to ensure the inclusive and sustainable growth of the global community.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) of Global Climate Change

What is climate change, and how does it impact agriculture and extreme weather events?

Climate change refers to the long-term alteration of Earth's climate due to changes in the atmosphere and interactions between the atmosphere and various factors within the Earth's system. It can lead to unpredictable weather patterns, which can significantly impact agriculture, especially in countries that rely heavily on farming, such as India. One of the consequences of climate change is the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and cyclones, causing widespread damage and devastation.

What factors cause climate change?

Climate change is caused by both natural and anthropogenic (human-caused) factors. Natural factors include continental drift, variation of the Earth's orbit, plate tectonics, volcanic activity, and ocean currents. Anthropogenic factors primarily involve the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation, changes in land use patterns, and atmospheric aerosols.

How is climate change affecting India?

India is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its diverse terrain, rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic growth. The country faces environmental and socio-economic challenges, including worsening water and air quality due to pollution. Coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and agricultural productivity are under threat from climate change. The increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters negatively impact India's economy, leading to poverty, vulnerability to diseases, and loss of income and livelihoods.

What international efforts have been taken to combat climate change?

Some key international efforts to combat climate change include the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement, and the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) strategy.

What measures has the Indian government taken to combat climate change?

India has taken several measures to adapt to and mitigate climate change, including increasing energy efficiency, promoting a circular economic model, encouraging the use of renewable energy, investing in afforestation, and allocating funds for the National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC). The country has also launched eight focused missions as part of the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to address various aspects of climate change.