Shankar IAS Summary India and Climate Change - 2 - Famous Books for UPSC

India's Position on Climate Change

India accounts for 17% of the global population while its historical share of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions is only about 3.37%. These figures are often used to frame discussions on equity, responsibility and differentiated action in international climate negotiations.

1. Current emissions profile: In 2021 India's greenhouse gas emissions were estimated at about 3.9 billion metric tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. The energy sector (electricity generation, industry combustion, transport and other fuel use) contributes roughly 70% of total emissions. Other contributors are agriculture (~18%), industrial processes and product use (~8%), and waste (~3%). Forests and croplands constitute an estimated carbon sink offsetting about 15% of emissions.
2. Per capita emissions: India's per capita emissions remain low relative to global averages. In 2010 the average Indian emitted about 1.91 metric tonnes CO₂ equivalent, substantially below the per capita emissions of many developed and even several developing countries.
3. Emission intensity improvements: Between 2005 and 2016 India reduced the emission intensity of GDP by about 24%. This progress supports India's voluntary target to reduce emissions intensity by up to 45% by 2030 (relative to 2005 levels).
4. Low-carbon focus and adaptation priority: Studies, including those referenced by the World Bank, indicate India is positioning for a low-carbon trajectory while emphasising adaptation - reducing vulnerability to climate impacts - along with targeted mitigation actions to limit future emissions.
5. National strategy: India has articulated a national framework to address climate change through the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and its constituent missions, which combine mitigation, adaptation, technology and capacity building measures.
6. Global cooperation and technology: India advocates collaborative research on low-carbon technologies and has emphasised mechanisms to improve access to intellectual property and technology transfer as a means of global public benefit.

Observed Climatic and Weather Conditions in India

India's National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) documents observed changes in climate variables. Scientific assessments note regional and sectoral change signals, but attributing specific local changes exclusively to anthropogenic warming often requires longer and higher-resolution datasets and careful analysis.

Logo of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

1. Surface temperature:
   • Over the last century the national mean surface air temperature has risen by about 0.4°C.
   • Regional patterns vary: warming is evident across the west coast, central India, interior peninsula and north-eastern India; some parts of north-west and south India have experienced relative cooling in specific periods.
2. Rainfall and monsoon:
   • At the all-India scale there is no simple long-term trend in monsoon seasonal rainfall, but strong regional differences exist.
   • Over the last 100 years seasonal increases (about 10-12%) have been observed on the west coast, northern Andhra Pradesh and some north-western areas, whereas declines (about 6-8%) have been recorded in parts of eastern Madhya Pradesh, north-eastern India, Gujarat and Kerala.
3. Extreme weather events:
   • Instrumental records over the past 130 years do not show a simple, consistent long-term rise in the frequency of large-scale droughts and floods, though multi-decadal variability is clear.
   • There is an observed increase in coastal severe storm incidence at a rate of about 0.011 events per year, with spatial heterogeneity - rising trends in some states (for example West Bengal and Gujarat) and declines in others (for example Odisha).
4. Sea-level rise:
   • Coastal tide-gauge records in the north Indian Ocean over recent decades indicate a sea level rise in the order of 1.06-1.75 mm yr⁻¹, broadly consistent with global estimates (~1-2 mm yr⁻¹) reported by the IPCC for comparable periods.
5. Himalayan glaciers:
   • The Himalaya supply perennial flows to major river systems (Indus, Ganga, Brahmaputra). Observations show recession of some glaciers in parts of the range.
   • Glacial responses are regionally variable; while some glaciers are retreating, others show limited change or complex behaviour. Current datasets do not allow a uniform conclusion across the entire mountain chain and further monitoring and research are required to understand long-term trends and drivers.
   

   Melting of ice in glaciers due to climatic changes

Current Actions for Adaptation and Mitigation

Adaptation refers to actions and measures that reduce the harm or exploit potential benefits from observed or expected climate change. Examples include relocating vulnerable coastal communities, shifting cropping patterns to heat-tolerant varieties, improving water storage and disaster preparedness.

Mitigation refers to efforts to reduce or stabilise greenhouse gas emissions - for example through deployment of renewable energy (solar, wind, bioenergy), improving energy efficiency, and supporting cleaner transport systems.

Image captionAdaption & Mitigation

Government expenditure: Public spending on adapting to climate variability and extreme events - through sectoral programmes and infrastructure investment - has been estimated to exceed 2.6% of GDP. This supports measures across agriculture, water resources, health, sanitation, forests, coastal-zone infrastructure and disaster management.

1. Agriculture: Schemes such as crop insurance protect farmers from climate-induced losses, while credit mechanisms provide financial relief when crops fail due to adverse weather.
2. Crop improvement: Programmes focus on developing drought- and heat-tolerant varieties, integrated pest management and capacity building for extension services.
3. Drought proofing: Interventions aim to increase resilience of cropping systems, livestock and livelihoods in drought-prone regions through water conservation, soil health and livelihood support.
4. Forestry: The Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980 and related measures reduce deforestation and require compensatory afforestation where forest land is diverted to other uses.
5. Water management: The National Water Policy promotes efficient allocation, inter-basin transfers where feasible, desalination for water-stressed coastal cities and decentralised rainwater harvesting; many states mandate rooftop rainwater harvesting in urban areas.
6. Coastal regulation: Coastal regulation measures control construction and land use within defined coastal zones (for example within 200 metres of high tide lines) to reduce vulnerability and protect ecosystems.
7. Health: Public health programmes focus on surveillance and control of vector-borne diseases, emergency medical response during disasters, and strengthening public health infrastructure.
8. Disaster management: The national disaster management framework emphasises prevention, preparedness, early warning systems and capacity building for local agencies and communities.

National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)

The NAPCC is India's long-term strategy to address climate change through eight national missions that combine mitigation, adaptation, knowledge generation and technology development. These missions aim to achieve multiple objectives such as enhancing renewable energy capacity, improving energy efficiency, conserving water and forests, and strengthening scientific understanding.

National Solar Mission

Objective: Promote large-scale deployment of solar energy to address energy security and reduce fossil fuel dependence, thereby advancing sustainable growth.

1. Phased implementation: The Mission is organised into phases aligned with Five-Year Plan periods, allowing assessment and course correction between phases.
2. Early focus: Initial efforts emphasise off-grid applications for areas lacking commercial electricity, solar thermal options and modest grid-connected capacity additions.
3. Scaling up: Later phases aim to significantly expand capacity and create conditions for solar energy to become cost-competitive across the grid.

• Mission targets: The cumulative target under the Mission is ambitious - commonly cited as 100,000 MW (100 GW) by 2021-22, with a significant share from rooftop solar (around 40 GW) and the remainder from large and medium scale grid-connected projects (~60 GW).

National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE)

Objective: Strengthen and expand markets for energy efficiency through regulatory measures, fiscal instruments and innovative business models to achieve measurable energy savings and emissions avoidance.

Anticipated impacts:

• Annual fuel savings exceeding 23 million tonnes of oil equivalent (toe).
• Avoided cumulative electricity capacity addition of about 19,000 MW.
• Annual CO₂ mitigation of about 58 million tonnes.

• Market transformation for energy efficiency
• Energy Efficiency Financing Platform (EEP) and frameworks to enable energy-efficient investments
• Framework for Energy Efficient Economic Development (FEEED)
• Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) - a market-based mechanism targeting large energy consumers

National Mission on Sustainable Habitat (Integrated Water Resource Management)

Some objectives under NMSH

Objective: Promote energy-efficient urban planning, sustainable water use and integrated management of urban and peri-urban habitats to reduce emissions and enhance climate resilience.

1. Optimum water-use framework: Encourage policies and pricing to reduce water demand and improve allocation efficiency.
2. Urban reuse: Promote wastewater treatment and reuse to meet urban water needs and reduce demand on fresh sources.
3. Desalination and coastal options: Explore low-temperature desalination and other technologies for water-scarce coastal cities.
4. Adaptation measures: Expand rainwater harvesting, groundwater recharge and surface storage to balance seasonal variability.
5. Irrigation efficiency: Promote improved irrigation technologies and systems to conserve water in agriculture.
6. Water-neutral technologies: Encourage technologies and practices that minimise net water consumption and restore groundwater where practicable.

National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE)

Objective: Strengthen observation, monitoring, research and assessment of the Himalayan system to inform policy and support environmentally sound development in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR).

1. Capacity building: Develop institutional and human capacity to monitor and respond to environmental changes in the Himalaya.
2. Networking and database: Connect knowledge institutions and build reliable shared databases for policy making.
3. Understanding change and impacts: Differentiate natural variability from anthropogenic effects, model future scenarios and evaluate socio-economic consequences.
4. Traditional knowledge: Integrate indigenous practices and local knowledge into adaptation and sustainable development strategies.
5. Regional cooperation and awareness: Foster cooperation across states and increase public awareness in Himalayan communities.

National Mission for a Green India

1. Mission objectives:
   • Increase tree and forest cover on an additional 10 million hectares and improve the quality of another 5 million hectares.
   • Enhance ecosystem services (biodiversity, watershed services) and increase carbon sequestration.
   • Enhance livelihoods of about 3 million forest-dependent families.
   • Sequester an additional 50-60 million tonnes CO₂ equivalent per year by 2020 (mission target).
2. Targets and sub-missions:
   • Rehabilitate 5 million hectares of degraded forest and tree cover.
   • Afforest or restore 2 million hectares across diverse landscapes including mangroves, arid tracts and mined areas.
   • Increase urban and peri-urban green cover (~0.20 million hectares).
   • Agro-forestry and tree planting on farm lands (~3 million hectares).
   • Wetland rejuvenation (~0.10 million hectares).

National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA)

1. Mission objectives:
   • Develop and implement location-specific, integrated agricultural strategies, including research, infrastructure, extension and capacity building.
   • Promote climate-resilient crop and livestock varieties, water-use efficiency and conservation agriculture.
   • Improve weather information dissemination and linkages to risk-sharing mechanisms such as crop insurance.
   • Demonstrate and scale technologies for rainfed and dryland agriculture, and promote livelihood diversification.
   • Reduce agriculture's greenhouse footprint through improved practices and technology adoption.
2. Key adaptation and mitigation dimensions:
   
   • Development of improved seeds and livestock breeds.
   • Water-use efficiency and micro-irrigation.
   • Integrated pest management.
   • Soil nutrient management and conservation agriculture.
   • Agricultural insurance and improved farmer access to information.
   • Livelihood diversification to reduce vulnerability.

National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change (NMSKCC)

Objective: Build a strong national knowledge base on climate science, impacts, vulnerability and responses; connect research institutions and develop policy-relevant scientific capacity.

1. Knowledge networking: Establish networks of institutions for data sharing, integrated assessment and decision support.
2. Technology assessment groups: Form multidisciplinary teams to evaluate appropriate technologies for mitigation and adaptation.
3. Sectoral and regional assessments: Advance understanding of climate risks across agriculture, health, ecosystems, coastal and Himalayan zones.
4. Human resource development: Encourage training and the involvement of young scientists in climate research.
5. Global collaboration: Promote international research partnerships and joint technology development.

Climate change centres under this mission have been established in several states including Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and Telangana to link state planning with national priorities.

National Bio-Energy Mission and National Bioenergy Programme (NBP)

Biomass Sources

Potential: Agricultural and agro-industrial residues in India have the potential to generate significant bioenergy - estimates indicate a possible contribution equivalent to up to 25,000 MW of power from current residues, with additional potential from energy crops on degraded or unused land.

The National Bioenergy Programme (NBP) (MNRE, 2021-22 to 2025-26) is composed of three components:

1. Waste to Energy Programme: Convert urban, industrial and agricultural wastes into energy.
2. Biomass Programme: Support production of briquettes/pellets and use biomass (excluding sugarcane residue) for power in industries.
3. Biogas Programme: Promote small-scale power generation from biogas.

Bioenergy defined: Renewable energy derived from biomass (plant or animal matter) used for heat, electricity or transport fuels. Advantages include cost-effectiveness, local employment generation, carbon mitigation potential and value addition to residues.

• Existing sources: Agricultural residues, forestry residues and urban organic waste.
• New sources: Dedicated energy crops, social forestry and plantation on degraded lands.

Climate Equity Monitor

The Climate Equity Monitor is an online analytical tool developed to evaluate fairness and equity in climate action. It compares national emissions, historical responsibilities and carbon budgets, and examines policy performance, principally focusing on developed (Annex-I) countries while providing comparative insights for non-Annex (developing) countries.

1. The Monitor emphasises cumulative emissions and remaining carbon budgets as central metrics for equity assessments.
2. It was developed in India by the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (Chennai) and the National Institute of Advanced Studies (Bengaluru), with contributions from independent researchers.
3. The tool aims to inform public debate and help policymakers and researchers assess national obligations and policy performance in a transparent manner.

India's Climate Plans and International Commitments

India submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in the lead-up to the global climate agreement process. The INDC outlines nationally determined actions that India intends to undertake post-2020 as part of the global effort to limit climate change.

• Pre-2020 voluntary target: India set an earlier voluntary target to cut the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20-25% from 2005 levels by 2020; policy interventions contributed to a measured decline in emission intensity of roughly 12% between 2005 and 2010.
• INDC focus areas: Sustainable lifestyles, cleaner economic growth, reduction of GDP emission intensity, increased share of non-fossil electricity, enhancement of carbon sinks through afforestation, adaptation measures, finance mobilisation, technology transfer and capacity building.
• Key 2030 targets stated in the INDC:
  • Reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 33-35% relative to 2005 levels.
  • Achieve 40% of cumulative electric power installed capacity
  • Expand carbon sinks through additional forest and tree cover to sequester 2.5-3 billion tonnes CO₂ equivalent.
  • Increase adaptation investments for vulnerable sectors including agriculture, water, Himalayan and coastal zones, health and disaster management.
  • Mobilise domestic and international finance and pursue collaborative technology development.

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  Indian Network on Climate Change Assessment (INCCA)

  
  1. Establishment and scope: INCCA was launched in 2009 by the then Ministry of Environment and Forests to promote coordinated domestic research on climate change. It brings together over 120 institutions and around 250 scientists to provide India-centric assessments.
  2. Purpose: Promote national research, build a body of Indian scientists able to generate credible, policy-relevant assessments and contribute to India's National Communication to the UNFCCC.
  3. Focus areas: Scientific measurements, monitoring, modelling, vulnerability and impact assessment, adaptation strategies and decision support tools.
  4. Notable assessments:
     • India: Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2007 (2010) - updated national GHG inventory showing a roughly 58% increase in emissions between 1994 and 2007.
     • Climate Change and India: A 4x4 Assessment - an assessment focusing on the period up to 2030, examining four regions (Himalayan, North-East, Western Ghats, Coastal plains) and four sectors (Agriculture, Water, Health, Natural Ecosystems/Biodiversity).

  2030 projections (summary from 4x4 assessment):

  • Average seasonal temperature rises up to ~2.0°C in warmer seasons in many regions.
  • Increasing precipitation intensity but fewer rainy days in some areas, raising flood risk.
  • Lower frequency but higher intensity of cyclonic disturbances with larger storm surge risks.
  • Projected mean sea level rise in the region of about 1.3 mm yr⁻¹ for the assessed period.

  Sectoral impacts:

  • Agriculture: Projected yield declines for key crops such as maize and rice in several regions; variable impacts on horticulture and livestock.
  • Freshwater resources: Spatially variable changes in yield, increased risk of floods and droughts in different basins.
  • Forests and ecosystems: Range shifts, altered species composition and biodiversity impacts affecting livelihoods.
  • Health: Increased heat-related morbidity and mortality, and expanded windows for vector-borne diseases such as malaria.

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  National Communication (NATCOM)

  Objectives: India's National Communication (NATCOM) to the UNFCCC aims to produce a rigorous scientific and technical assessment of national greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerabilities, develop a comprehensive GHG inventory, and assess national adaptation and mitigation options.

  1. Participatory approach: NATCOM is prepared through broad collaboration involving research institutions, technical agencies, universities, government departments and non-government actors to capture regional and sectoral complexities.
  2. Implementation and data: The Ministry of Environment and Forests is the executing agency. NATCOM establishes a central Data Centre to create an accessible database for emissions, impacts and adaptation information.
  3. GHG inventory: Inventories are prepared for energy, industrial processes, agriculture, land use/land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and waste, covering gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases following IPCC guidelines (1996 guidelines and good practice guidance).
  4. Capacity enhancement: NATCOM supports targeted research proposals and long-term action planning to reduce uncertainties in emission estimates and to strengthen vulnerability and adaptation assessments.

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  India's Policy Structure Relevant to GHG Mitigation

  Integrated Energy Policy (2006) and related sectoral policies provide the policy architecture for energy, efficiency and low-carbon development. Key policy priorities include:

  GHG Mitigation Policy
  • Promoting energy efficiency across industry, buildings and appliances.
  • Emphasising mass public transport to reduce emissions from individual vehicles.
  • Accelerating renewable energy deployment, including solar, wind and biofuels, alongside support for local manufacturing.
  • Expanding nuclear and hydropower as lower-carbon baseload options where appropriate.
  • Fostering R&D in clean energy technologies and systems.
  • Rural Electrification Policy (2006): promotes decentralised renewables in areas where grid extension is not cost-effective.
  • New and Renewable Energy Policy (2005): accelerates deployment of renewables and supports domestic technology development.
  • National Environment Policy (2006) and EIA Notification (2006): strengthen environmental appraisal and regulatory oversight to ensure sustainable development outcomes.

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  Concluding summary

  India's climate strategy combines a focus on equitable international engagement, strengthening mitigation through renewable energy and energy efficiency, and prioritising adaptation given the country's socio-economic vulnerabilities. The NAPCC missions, research networks like INCCA and national reports (NATCOM) underpin policy and planning, while national programmes in solar energy, bioenergy, sustainable agriculture, water management and forest restoration aim to reduce emissions intensity and build resilience. Continued expansion of scientific capacity, finance mobilisation, technology deployment and community-level adaptation will remain central to India's response to climate change.