Population and Associated Issues | Indian Society for UPSC CSE PDF Download

With 142.86 crore people, India has surpassed China to become the world’s most populous nation, according to the latest United Nations data.

Some Statistics about Indian Population

• 142.86 crore Indians now: According to the latest United Nations Population Fund data, India’s population in 2023 stands at 142.86 crore.
• Mostly Young population: Twenty-six per cent of India’s population is in the 10-24 age bracket and 68 per cent in the 15-64 age bracket. Seven per cent of the country’s population is above 65 years of age. People under the age of 25 accounts for more than 40% of India’s population.
• Spatial Divergences in Population: Kerala and Punjab have an ageing population, while Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have a younger population, say experts.
• Population to increase for next three decades: Several studies have shown that India’s population is expected to increase for nearly three decades before it peaks at 165 crore. It will then start to decline.

Reasons for India’s high population

• Historically high population: India has always had a historically high population, especially in its fertile northern plains. There, due to climatic reasons, it is possible to grow both wheat, a winter grain, and rice, a summer grain, yielding twice as much food as many other parts of the world.
• Higher birth rates and fertility rates: We have been successful in declining the death rates but the same cannot be said for birth rates. Also, the fertility rate (number of children a woman bear during her fertility rate) remained high for many decades.
• Early Marriage and Universal Marriage System: Getting married at a young age prolongs the childbearing age. Also, in India, marriage is a sacred obligation and a universal practice, where almost every woman is married at reproductive age.
• Poverty and Illiteracy:  Impoverished families have this notion that more the members in the family, the more will be the numbers to earn income. Some feel that more children are needed to look after them in their old age.
• Age-old cultural norm: Sons are the bread earners of families in India. This age-old thought puts considerable pressure on the parents to produce children till a male child or the required number of male children are born (This is called Son Meta preference).
• Illegal migration: Last but not the least, we cannot ignore the fact that illegal migration is continuously taking place from Bangladesh and Nepal is leading to increased population density.
• Lack of awareness: about family planning and its benefits, government schemes related to family welfare like free birth control measures leading to unwanted pregnancies and ultimately population growth.

Implications of high population

• Poor achievement of SDGs: Sustained high fertility and rapid population growth present challenges to the achievement of sustainable development. The necessity of educating growing numbers of children and young people, for example, draws resources away from efforts to improve the quality of education.
• Unemployment: Generating employment for a huge population in a country like India is very difficult. The number of illiterate persons increases every year. The unemployment rate is thus showing an increasing trend.
• Pressure on infrastructure: The development of infrastructural facilities is unfortunately not keeping pace with the growth of the population. The result is a lack of transportation, communication, housing, education, healthcare etc. There has been an increase in the number of slums, overcrowded houses, traffic congestion etc.
• Manpower utilization: The number of jobless people is on the rise in India due to economic depression and slow business development and expansion activities. It has also caused India to be the home of the largest force of Gig Workers in the world and a large informal economy. This ultimately leads to poor or stagnant living standards and slow progress in Human Capital Development and Social Mobility for a large section of society.
• Faster and inefficient resource utilization: Land areas, water resources, and forests are over-exploited. There is also the scarcity of resources.
• Decreased production and increased costs: Food production and distribution have not been able to catch up with the increasing population and hence the costs of production have increased. Inflation is the major consequence of overpopulation.
• Inequitable income distribution: In the face of an increasing population, unequal distribution of income and inequalities within the country widen.
• Increasing divergence in the representation of different states in the Parliament of India: higher population growth in north Indian states as compared to southern states has led to the freezing of the number of seats in parliament till 2026. This has caused a political tussle between less-developed northern and largely developed southern Indian states.

Positive outcomes:

• Largest pool of consumers: an increase in population means an increase in consumers and expansion of the demand for raw materials as well as finished products leading to high consumption and thus higher economic activities. Thus, India has become the largest market in the world for companies around the world.
• Population growth is correlated to technological advancement: According to the neo-classical growth model, the population is beneficial to an economy because population growth is correlated to technological advancement. The rising population promotes the need for some sort of technological change to meet the rising demands for certain goods and services.
• Demographic dividend in India: India’s unique population structure with around 66% population in the working age group (15-59 years) has brought her to the cusp of a major transition for the next two decades. This has made it one of the youngest countries in the world which may put India on the path of high development as happened in China between 1991 and 2011.

Steps taken for population control in India

• Population Policy Committee: was created in 1952 which suggested the appointment of a Family Planning Research and Programmes Committee in 1953.
• Central Family Planning Board was created in 1956 which emphasized sterilization. Up till the 1960s a rigid policy was not adopted to arrest the fast growth of the population. The policy framed in 1951-52 was ad hoc in nature, flexible, and based on a trial-and-error approach.
• The New Population Policy, 1977: The Government of India introduced first National Population Policy in 1976, which focussed on reducing birth rate, lowering the infant mortality rate and improving the standard of life.
• The National Population Policy 2000: provided a comprehensive framework to provide the reproductive and health needs of the people of India for the next ten years.
• Mission Parivar Vikas (MPV), 2016: Under the scheme, innovative strategies like the distribution of Nayi Pehel kits, Saas Bahu Sammelan, and Saarthi vans are helping in reaching out to the community and initiating dialogues on family planning and healthy birth spacing, and the importance of small families.
• Raising the marriage age for girls: Recently, the Government proposed the Prohibition of Child Marriage (Amendment) Bill, 2021, which seeks to raise the age of legal marriage for women from 18 to 21, which would further help in reducing fertility rates.

Some green shoots

• Declining TFR: SRS report estimated the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the number of children a mother would have at the current pattern of fertility during her lifetime, as 2.2 in the year 2018. The recently released 5th National Family Health Survey report has shown that India’s TFR has currently reached below the replacement level of fertility of 2.1 children per woman. As fertility declines, so does the population growth rate.

Population control measures that can be taken

• Social Measure: Population outburst is considered to be a social problem and it is intensely rooted in civilization. It is, therefore, necessary to make efforts to eliminate the social iniquities in the country.
• Minimum age of Marriage: As fertility depends on the age of marriage therefore the minimum age of marriage should be raised. In India, the minimum age for marriage is 21 years for men and 18 years for women fixed by law. This law should be strongly implemented and people should also be made aware of this through promotion.
• Raising the Status of Women: There are prevalent biases against women. They are restricted to houses. They are still confined to rearing and bearing children. So women should be given opportunities to develop socially and economically. Free education should be given to them.
• Spread education: The spread of education changes the views of people. Educated men take mature decisions and prefer to delay marriage and adopt small family customs. Educated women are health mindful and avoid frequent pregnancies and thus help to lower the birth rate.
• Adoption: is also an effective way to curb population. Some parents do not have any children, despite expensive medical treatment. It is recommended that they should adopt orphan children. It will be helpful to orphan children and children to couples.
• Economic Measures: It is necessary to raise employment opportunities in rural as well as urban areas. Another economic measure for population control is the development of Agriculture and Industry. If agriculture and industry are correctly developed, a huge number of people will get employment. When their income is increased they would enhance their standard of living and accept small family norms.
• Urbanization: process can reduce population increase. It is reported that people in urban areas have low birth rate than those living in rural areas. Urbanization should be encouraged.
• Strict birth control measures: are needed such as China has adopted a strategy to decrease the birth rate. But it is not possible to reduce technological advancements to decrease the death rate in India. To reduce the birth rate, several government-funded agencies like the Family Planning Association of India spend excessive funds to promote family planning as a basic human right and the norm of a two-child family voluntarily.
• Creating awareness about family planning: The family planning methods provided by the family planning program are vasectomy, tubectomy, IUD, conventional contraceptives (that is condoms, diaphragms, jelly/cream tubes, foam tables) and oral pills.

DEMOGRAPHIC  DIVIDEND

According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), demographic dividend means the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure. India has one of the youngest populations (62.5% of its population in the age group 15-59) in an aging world. The demographic dividend leads to an increased labour supply that will increase the production of goods and boost savings and investment on the other.
Various opportunities related to demographic dividend in India:

• Labour supply: The first benefit of the young population is the increased labour supply, as more people reach working age. However, the magnitude of this benefit depends on the ability of the economy to absorb and productively employ the extra workers.
• Capital formation: As the number of dependents decreases individuals save more. This increase in national savings rates increases the stock of capital in developing countries and provides an opportunity to create the country’s capital through investment.
• Female Human capital: Decrease in fertility rates result in healthier women and fewer economic pressures at home. This provides an opportunity to engage more women in the workforce and enhance human capital.
• Economic growth: Another opportunity is produced by increased domestic demand brought about by the increasing GDP per capita and the decreasing dependency ratio. This leads to demand-driven economic growth. Growth, education, better economic security and a desire for more durable goods are the cause and consequence of young demographics.
• Infrastructure: Increased fiscal space created by the demographic dividend enables the government to divert resources from spending on children to investing in physical and human infrastructure.
• Skilled workforce: Most sectors of Indian economy would require a more skilled workforce than the present. It would be both a challenge and an opportunity for India to provide its workforce with required skill sets and knowledge to enable them to contribute substantially to its economic growth.
• Migration: It presents some opportunities that can arise from having demographic changes, particularly the demographic dividend and interstate migration to overcome labour shortage in some parts.

 Challenges of demographic dividend in India:

• Enhancing human capital: Poor human capital formation is reflected in low employability among India’s graduates and postgraduates. According to ASSOCHAM, only 20-30 % of engineers find a job suited to their skills. Thus, low human capital base and lack of skills is a big challenge.
• Low human development: India ranks 130 out of 189 countries in UNDP’s Human Development Index, which is alarming. Life expectancy at birth in India (68 years) is much lower than other developing countries. The mean years of schooling and expected years of schooling and need to be improved.
• Informal economy: Informal nature of economy in India is another challenge in reaping the benefits of demographic transition in India. Nearly 216 million people are engaged in the agriculture sector, are in the informal economy where not only they earn lower wages, but with little social security and few days of employment in a year.
• Jobless growth: There is a mounting concern that future growth could turn out to be jobless due to deindustrialization, de-globalization, the fourth industrial revolution and technological progress. As per the NSSO Periodic Labour Force Survey 2017-18, India’s labour force participation rate for the age-group 15-59 years is around 53%, that is around half of the working age population is jobless.
• Asymmetric demography: The growth in the working-age ratio is likely to be concentrated in some of India’s poorest states and the demographic dividend will be fully realised only if India is able to create gainful employment opportunities for this working-age population.
• Issue of tilted sex ratio: Declining female labour force participation: According to data from the International Labour Organization and World Bank, India’s female labour force participation rates have fallen from 34.8 % in 1990 to 27 % in 2013. Without women participation India can’t dream of reaping demographic dividend.

Migration in India

Migration is the movement of people away from their usual place of residence, either internal (within the country) or international (across countries) borders. 

• One important facet of the study on population is the migration arising out of various social, economic, or political reasons. 
• For a large country like India, the study of the movement of the population in different parts of the country helps in understanding the dynamics of the society better.

Various forms and patterns of Migration

People may move within a country between different states or between different districts of the same state, or they may move between different countries. 

• Internal migration refers to migration from one place to another within a country, while external migration or international migration refers to migration from one country to another. Internal migrant flows can be classified based on origin and destination. There is rural-urban migration, also there is intra-state and inter-state migration. 
• Forced migration refers to migration that is not chosen by the individual or family but is forced upon them by factors such as war, persecution, or natural disasters. Voluntary migration refers to migration that is chosen by the individual or family, driven by factors such as better economic opportunities or a desire for a better life.
• Temporary migration refers to migration that is intended to be of short duration, such as seasonal or temporary work. Permanent migration refers to migration that is intended to be of long duration, intending to settle permanently in a new place.
• Reverse migration refers to the migration of individuals or families who have previously migrated, back to their country of origin or their original place of residence.

Reasons for Migration

The important factors which cause migration or which motivate people to move may broadly be classified into four categories: economic factors, demographic factors, socio-cultural factors, and political factors.
Economic Factors:
In most developing countries, low agricultural income, agricultural unemployment and underemployment are the major factors pushing the migrants towards areas with greater job opportunities.

• Push factors: Adverse economic conditions caused by poverty, low productivity, unemployment, and exhaustion of natural resources.
• Pull factors: Pull factors refer to those factors which attract the migrants to an area, such as opportunities for better employment, higher wages, better working conditions and better amenities of life, etc.
• Push-back factors: The urban labor force is sizable, and the urban unemployment rates are high, and there also exist pools of underemployed persons. All these factors act in combination as deterrents to the fresh flow of migration from rural to urban areas.

Socio-cultural Factors: 
Migration can also be driven by social factors such as marriage, family reunification, or the desire to be closer to one's community or social network.

• Marriage: Marriage is the main reason for migration among women in India. 
• Caste: Caste-based discrimination and marginalization, and violence against certain groups can also lead to migration.
• Religion: Religious persecution or discrimination can also cause individuals to migrate.
• Cultural factors: Migration can also be driven by cultural factors such as the desire to preserve one's cultural identity or to be closer to one's cultural community.

Political factors: 
Migration can also be driven by political factors such as persecution, war, or political instability.

• Political instability: Conflicts, war, or other forms of political instability can force individuals to migrate in search of safety and security.
• Persecution: Migration can also be driven by persecution or discrimination based on factors such as religion, ethnicity, or political views.
• Separatist movements: Migration can also be driven by separatist movements or ethnic conflicts, where individuals or groups may feel compelled to leave their homes to escape violence or persecution.
• Government policies and administrative actions: Government policies and administrative actions that lead to displacement or loss of livelihoods can affect migration.
• For instance, in our country, the adoption of the jobs for ‘sons of the soil policy’ by the State governments will certainly affect migration from other states.

Environmental factors: 

• Natural disasters: Droughts, floods, landslides, and other natural disasters can displace individuals and force them to migrate for food, water, and shelter.
• Climate change: Rising sea levels, increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, and other impacts of climate change can lead to the loss of homes and livelihoods, forcing people to migrate.
• Deforestation and land degradation: Deforestation and land degradation can lead to the loss of livelihoods, particularly for those dependent on agriculture, forestry, and pastoralism, forcing them to migrate.
• Water scarcity: Shortages of water due to climate change, overuse, and pollution, can lead to loss of livelihoods and force people to migrate.
• Displacement by development projects: Large-scale development projects such as dams, mines, and industrial projects can displace people from their homes and force them to migrate.

 What does the Census say about the migration trends in India?

The latest government data on migration comes from the 2011 Census.  

• India had 45.6 crore migrants in 2011 (38% of the population).
• Between 2001 and 2011, while the population grew by 18%, the number of migrants increased by 45%.  
• 99% of total migration was internal, and immigrants (international migrants) comprised 1%.
• There were 21 crore rural-rural migrants, which formed 54% of classifiable internal migration.
• Intra-state movement accounted for almost 88% of all internal migration.
• Uttar Pradesh and Bihar were the largest sources of inter-state migrants, while Maharashtra and Delhi were the largest receiver states.
• Majority (70%) of intra-state migration was due to reasons of marriage and family. 

 Outcomes of migration

Migration in India can have a variety of consequences, both positive and negative, depending on the context and the specific characteristics of the migration.
Economic Consequences: 
A major benefit for the source region is the remittance sent by migrants. 

• Remittances from international migrants are one of the major sources of foreign exchange.
• Availability of labor can increase productivity. 
• Also, unregulated migration to the metropolitan cities of India has caused overcrowding and the development of slums.

Demographic Consequences: 
Migration leads to the redistribution of the population within a country.

• Age and skill-selective migration from the rural area have adverse effects on the rural demographic structure.
• Out-migration of rural men is also leading to the feminization of agriculture. 

Social Consequences: 
Migrants act as agents of social change. The new ideas related to new technologies, family planning, girls’ education, etc., get diffused from urban to rural areas through them.

• Migration leads to intermixing of people from diverse cultures and leads to the evolution of a composite culture. 
• But it also has serious negative consequences like a sense of dejection among the migrants. 

Environmental Consequences:
The environmental consequences of migration in India can be significant and varied.

• Migration can lead to the loss of biodiversity and  Deforestation as people clear land for agriculture, overuse natural resources, and introduce new invasive species.
• Migration can increase water scarcity as people overuse water resources and pollute water sources.

 Challenges faced by migrants, especially migrant workers

People migrating for work face key challenges including

• Lack of social security and health benefits and poor implementation of minimum safety standards law.
• Lack of portability of state-provided benefits, especially food provided through the public distribution system (PDS).
• Lack of access to affordable housing and basic amenities in urban areas.
• Effect of COVID-19- Concerns faced by such migrant workers relate to food, shelter, healthcare, fear of getting infected or spreading the infection, loss of wages, concerns about the family, anxiety, and fear. 

Measures taken by the government for the welfare of the migrants

The Indian government has implemented various measures to address the welfare of migrants in the country. Some key measures include

• Code on Social Security: The code provides certain benefits for inter-state migrant workers such as Insurance and provident fund.
• One Nation-One Ration Card: It has given households benefiting from the Public Distribution System (PDS) more choice and flexibility to choose which Fair Price Shop (FPS) they can get their rations from. 
• Draft National Policy on Migrant Workers by NITI Aayog: NITI Aayog’s draft national migrant policy takes a rights-based approach and discusses the importance of collective action to help migrants bargain for better conditions.
• Remote voting: The Election Commission plans to pilot a Multi-Constituency Remote Electronic Voting Machine (RVM) to facilitate the participation of domestic migrants from their remote locations for voting for their home constituencies.
• Relief measures during the COVID-19
  1. E-SHRAM Portal for creating a database of migrant workers.
  2. Distribution of food under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojna.
  3. Affordable rental housing complexes (ARHCs) scheme aimed at providing housing at an affordable rent to migrants near their workplace.
  4. Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyan (GKRA) provides employment to returnee migrants affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 116 selected districts across six states.

BRAIN DRAIN IN INDIA

Brain drain is the migration of educated persons from one country to another.

• Primary external brain drain occurs when human resources leave their country to go work overseas in developed countries such as Europe, North America, and Australia.
• Secondary external brain drain occurs when human resources leave their country to go work elsewhere in the nearby region.
• Internal brain drain occurs when human resources are not employed in the fields of their expertise in their own country or when human resources move from the public sector to the private sector or within a sector.
• According to the recent information from the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), more than six lakh Indians renounced their citizenship in the past five years. In 2021, till September 30 around 1,11,287 Indians have given up their citizenships.
• In the past two decades, there has been a continuous outflow of Indians, except during the 2008 financial crisis and in 2020-21 due to Covid-19 related travel bans.

Why are Indians emigrating?
Indian competence, linguistic prowess, and a higher level of education are a few of the attractions for countries, which have eased visa rules to attract talent. As the opportunities become scarcer here, the foreign countries are ever more aware of the multi-talented Indian engineers, doctors, and scientists with English language prowess as well.
The reasons for this brain drain can be substantiated into a few key categories-
Push factors for brain drain

• Lack of higher education opportunities
• Lower-income: Developed countries offer better pay to sectors like health, research, IT, etc. Income is one of the main triggers of emigration from India.
• Non-recognition of talents: The chances of being recognized in one’s field are difficult in a populace this large and with conventions preferring the glamour world over academic talent; bright minds choose foreign countries where their work is appreciated more.

Pull factors for brain drain

• Better standard of living: The developed countries provide better living standards, salaries, tax benefits, etc, which becomes a great attraction for emigration.
• Improved quality of life: It is unarguable that the facilities available abroad are yet to be matched with by developing countries, and hence till that level of life quality is achieved, migrations will continue.
• Societal pressure: Indian youth are becoming more liberal and personal with their life, and the society here is yet to come to terms with the kind of lifestyle. Hence, the pressure to live a certain way among the Indian society is curbing the freedom of choice of today’s youths, encouraging them to seek western countries where the society is more liberal non-interfering.
• Easy migration policies: The developed nations are easing migration policies to attract talents to boost their economy. They target Asians specifically to take up intellectual labour.
• Better remuneration: The better pay and living standard offered by developing countries is, of course, a foremost reason for emigration.