The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 2nd September 2024 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

A Crisis in WANA that No One Talks About

Why in News?

F irst, a trick question: Where in West Asia-North Africa (WANA) in 2023 did a no-holds-barred conict morph into the world’s worst humanitarian crisis? The correct answer is not Gaza, but Sudan. The conict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Force (RSF) led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemayti (“My Protector”) has devastated Sudan. The estimates vary widely, but the figures are horrific: up to 1,50,000 deaths, nearly 10 million people (nearly a fifth of Sudan’s population) displaced, of whom 2.5 million have been forced abroad. These figures are nearly four times those of Gaza. Sudan, a Nile-irrigated agrarian economy exporting food, is now tethering on the brink of a major famine and epidemics such as cholera. 

What are the Reasons behind Recent West Asia Turmoil?

• Israel began its military actions against Gaza. In response, Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia group supported by Iran, launched rockets at Israeli forces in the Shebaa Farms. This area is controlled by Israel but claimed by Lebanon, demonstrating support for the Palestinians.
• Many Arab countries expressed their anger over Israel's widespread bombings and chose to pursue diplomatic efforts to pressure the Israeli government.
• Iran-backed militias opened new attacks against Israel during this period.
• The Houthi group from Yemen started targeting commercial ships in the Red Sea in mid-November, also in support of the Palestinians.
• These attacks caused several major shipping companies to halt their operations in the Red Sea, which links the Mediterranean Sea to the Arabian Sea via the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
• Israel has conducted numerous airstrikes in Syria and Lebanon, targeting and killing commanders from Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian forces.
• On January 16, Iran launched strikes in Iraq's Kurdistan, Syria, and Pakistan, claiming to have hit a Mossad operations center and Sunni militant groups.
•  Military spending in West Asia remains high as a percentage of GDP. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Kuwait, and Israel consistently invest significant portions of their economic output into defense. 
•  This region also has the highest percentage of its workforce engaged in military roles compared to other areas around the world.
  

What is the Historical background behind West Asian Conflict?

• Ottoman Empire's Influence: From the 14th century until the early 20th century, the Ottoman Empire controlled much of Western Asia.
  • The empire successfully managed a diverse population with different races, religions, and cultures through an effective administrative system.
• Post-World War I Developments: After World War I, significant changes occurred following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire.
  • The victorious Allied powers, mainly Britain and France, divided the former Ottoman territories, often ignoring the desires of the local Arab people.
  • This caused feelings of betrayal and resentment, especially due to promises made to gain Arab support during the war that were later broken.
• Sykes-Picot Agreement: In 1916, the Sykes-Picot Agreement was an unofficial treaty between the United Kingdom and France, with approval from the Russian Empire and Italy.
  • The agreement outlined their spheres of influence in the planned partition of the Ottoman Empire.
  • It divided the Ottoman provinces outside the Arabian Peninsula into areas controlled by British and French authorities.
• Balfour Declaration: The Balfour Declaration was a public statement from the British government in 1917, during World War I, supporting the creation of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine, which was then an Ottoman region with a small Jewish population.
  • This declaration had many long-lasting effects.
• Creation of Israel: In 1917, the British government issued the Balfour Declaration, supporting a national home for Jewish people in Palestine.
  • After World War II, in 1947, the United Nations proposed a plan to partition Palestine into separate Jewish and Arab states, with Jerusalem as an international city.
  • In 1948, Israel declared its independence, which led to conflict with neighboring Arab nations.
• Arab-Israeli War (1948): The declaration of Israel's independence in 1948 led to attacks from surrounding Arab states.
  • By the end of the war, Israel controlled about 50% more territory than what the UN partition plan had outlined.
• The 1979 Revolution: After the Shah was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, a religious state was established in Iran.
  • The new regime viewed Israel as an occupier of Palestinian land.
  • The Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, labeled Israel as “Little Satan” and the United States as “Great Satan”, seeing both as interfering in the region.
• A Shadow War after 1979: Relations between Israel and Iran deteriorated following the revolution.
  • Although they have never fought directly, both have tried to harm each other using proxies and limited attacks.
  • In the early 2010s, Israel targeted facilities and scientists in Iran to stop its nuclear weapons development.
  • In 2010, it is believed that the US and Israel created a computer virus called Stuxnet to attack a uranium enrichment facility at Iran's Natanz site, marking the first known cyberattack on industrial systems.
  • Iran has funded and supported militant groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, which are against Israel and the US.
• Recent Developments: Iran has launched full-scale military actions against Israel, while Israel continues its operations in Gaza, increasing regional instability.
  • Ongoing conflicts such as the Yemeni civil war, the political crisis in Lebanon, the Syrian civil war, and the Turkey-Cyprus conflict add to global concerns.

Who are the Key Players and Their Divergent Objectives?

• Israel: Aims to break down Hamas, free hostages, and eliminate threats to its safety.
• Its military actions in Gaza and airstrikes in other areas are part of this goal.
• Hamas: Attempts to oppose Israeli policies and actions in Gaza and the West Bank.
• As a Palestinian Islamist political group and militant organization, it has been part of a long-term conflict with Israel.
• Iran: Supports various anti-Israel groups in West Asia, such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Houthis, and the Shia militias in Iraq and Syria.
• Iran aims to increase its influence in the area, often working against U.S. and Israeli interests.
• Hezbollah and other militias: These groups, usually supported by Iran, have taken part in the conflict, mainly against Israel and in favor of Palestinian issues.
• United States: Backs Israel and strives to keep stability in the region while protecting its interests.
• The U.S., with a strong military presence and diplomatic connections in the region, has three main goals:
  • Ensure the security of Israel
  • Protect the safety of U.S. troops and assets stationed in the region
  • Maintain the U.S.-led order in the area
• Other Regional Actors: Countries like Pakistan have their own interests in the conflict, influenced by religious, political, and regional factors.

What are the Geopolitical Impact of the Conflicts in West?

• Humanitarian Crisis: Ongoing military actions are likely to lead to many civilian deaths and worsen living conditions, especially in Gaza.
• Regional Instability: A long-lasting conflict can make the already unstable West Asian region even more chaotic, impacting neighboring countries. As the conflict drags on, Israel's military actions in Gaza show no signs of stopping, leading to continued attacks from Hezbollah and the Houthis.
• Global Economic Impact: Interruptions in important shipping routes, like the Red Sea, and disruptions in oil supplies can affect economies around the world.
• Spread of Extremism: The ongoing conflict may promote radical views and help extremist groups to grow, making the region less stable.
• International Relations: The conflict puts pressure on diplomatic ties between global powers and local countries, making it harder to achieve peace and stability.
• Security Breakdown: Unlike previous conflicts in West Asia, which often involved countries or a mix of state and non-state actors, the current situation is characterized by a widespread loss of security.

What are the Possible Impacts on India?

• Impact on Energy Security: India's reliance on imported oil from West Asia makes it susceptible to price fluctuations and supply interruptions.
• The rising competition for energy resources in West Asia can drive up prices and increase the struggle to obtain supplies, making it tougher for India to secure the energy it requires.
• India ranks as the third-largest consumer and importer of oil globally, with over 40% of its oil sourced from West Asia.
• Indian Diaspora: A significant number of Indians live in West Asia, and any unrest in the region could affect their wages and incomes.
• Remittances: Non-resident Indians (NRIs) send approximately USD 40 billion back home each year, which represents more than 55% of India's total remittance inflows.
• According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), 82% of total remittances received by India come from seven countries in West Asia: the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the United States (US), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Kingdom, and Oman.
• Trade and Investment: Data from the UN Comtrade database shows that from 2017 to 2021, Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states made up 15.3% of India's total two-way merchandise trade.

What is the India’s Approach toward West Asia?

• The Middle East Quad (I2U2) Initiative: This initiative involves India, Israel, the U.S., and the UAE, aiming to link South Asia, the Middle East, and the United States for collaboration in economy, technology, and diplomacy.
• Medical Diplomacy: The Vaccine Maitri program is a humanitarian effort by the Indian government to provide COVID-19 vaccines to countries in West Asia.
• Examples: Countries like Saudi Arabia and Bahrain benefited from this vaccine initiative.
• Downstream Projects: India has invited countries from West Asia to invest in downstream projects within India's hydrocarbon sector.
• An agreement was signed in January 2017 between the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited regarding oil storage and management.
• This agreement signifies that the supply of crude oil from the UAE to the Mangalore cavern is a major step in developing a strategic partnership in the energy sector.
• Strategic Partnership in Energy Sector: The Abu Dhabi government granted a significant oil concession to an ONGC-led consortium from India in the Lower Zakum area.
• A High-Level Ministerial Taskforce has been formed to monitor various important promises and agreements.
• Tech Diplomacy: India is using technology to strengthen its relations with countries in West Asia.
• An example is the launch of the RuPay card in Abu Dhabi, which is a crucial initiative in India's digital payment system.
• Cultural Diplomacy: India opened its first Hindu temple in Dubai as a special gift to the Indian community from the UAE.
• Other aspects of India's Soft Power include Yoga, Bollywood, and Music.

What are the Approaches proposed to address the conflict?

• Negotiations and Two-State Solution:
  • Many global leaders support a planned two-state solution, where Israel and Palestine would exist as separate nations.
  • Discussions would focus on setting clear borders, resolving issues like the status of Jerusalem, and ensuring security for both sides.
  • The Oslo Accords were earlier attempts between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to reach a two-state agreement.
  • Numerous peace proposals have been put forward by international groups, including the United States, the United Nations, and the Arab League.
• Ceasefire and Humanitarian Assistance:
  • Immediate ceasefires and humanitarian aid for those impacted by the conflict can help reduce suffering and create space for diplomatic efforts.
  • Temporary ceasefires have been arranged by countries like Egypt and Qatar during times of heightened conflict.
  • International aid organizations provide support and assistance to people in Gaza and the West Bank.
• International Mediation:
  • Neutral international mediators or organizations, like the United Nations, play a key role in facilitating talks and negotiations for peace.
• Addressing Core Issues:
  • Resolving fundamental causes of the conflict, such as disputes over land, access to resources, and the rights of refugees, can help achieve lasting stability.
• People-to-People Initiatives:
  • Encouraging communication and collaboration between Israelis and Palestinians at the community level is important for building trust and understanding.
  • Organizations like Seeds of Peace and OneVoice foster dialogue among young people from both sides.
  • Joint projects in business, education, and culture promote cooperation between Israelis and Palestinians.
• Human Rights and International Law:
  • It is crucial for both parties to adhere to international humanitarian law and human rights standards, ensuring accountability for violations.
  • The International Criminal Court (ICC) investigates claims of war crimes and human rights violations in the area.
  • United Nations resolutions condemn illegal settlements and emphasize the need to respect international law.
• Regional Cooperation:
  • Engaging regional players and neighboring countries in peace efforts can help create a more stable environment.
  • The Arab Peace Initiative proposes establishing normal relations between Israel and Arab nations in exchange for a comprehensive peace deal with Palestinians.
  • Regional summits and initiatives focus on promoting peace and stability in the Middle East.
• Economic Development:
  • Enhancing economic growth in the region can improve living conditions and create opportunities for both Israelis and Palestinians.
  • The Palestinian Investment Promotion Agency (PIPA) and other organizations aim to stimulate economic development in Gaza and the West Bank.
  • International donor conferences are held to raise funds for infrastructure and economic projects.
• Security Measures:
  • Implementing security measures to protect both Israelis and Palestinians may involve international peacekeeping forces.
  • United Nations peacekeeping missions, like the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO), monitor ceasefires in the region.
  • Arrangements for border security and confidence-building measures help reduce violence.
• Educational Initiatives:
  • Encouraging education and awareness about each other's history and culture can promote understanding and tolerance.
  • Programs like the Hand in Hand bilingual schools in Israel promote mutual understanding and cooperation.
  • Cultural exchange initiatives and joint artistic projects support collaboration between communities.

Conclusion

It is very unlikely that the fighting in Syria, Yemen, and other regions in the Middle East will stop anytime soon. Bringing all the different groups to the negotiation table will require a lot of careful political work.  Many efforts, like the West Asia Peace Plan, tend to be self-serving, benefiting only one side while ignoring the needs of the others.