The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 12th September 2024 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

Instability and uncertainty stalk Bangladesh

Why in News?

It is often said that the futures of people and countries are fragile and can change quickly.  On August 5 this year, Muhammad Yunus, who is the current leader of the temporary government, was scheduled to appear in court for several accusations against the State.  At the same time, the then Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, was expected to resign and flee to India. 

•  This situation followed weeks of protests against a quota system, which reserved a portion of government jobs for the children of those who fought in Bangladesh's war of independence. 
•  The government responded harshly to the student protests, causing even more people to rise up against the government and Sheikh Hasina. 
•  Despite the government's decision to cancel the quota system, large protests continued, showing the deep anger towards the government and Sheikh Hasina herself. 
•  This public unrest ultimately forced her to leave the country. 

Crucial Insights on Bangladesh Crisis 2024

• Multiple Factors of the Bangladesh Crisis: Various issues contribute to the crisis, including:
  • Claims of election rigging
  • Autocratic rule
  • Effects of COVID-19 on the textile industry
  • Depreciation of the taka
  • Job scarcity
• Sheikh Hasina:
  • Political Discontent: Hasina's government is accused of silencing opposition and dissent. Her long time in power included:
    • Arrests of opposition leaders
    • Crackdowns on freedom of expression
    • Suppression of dissent
  • Criticism of Democratic Processes: Critics say Hasina's government damaged democracy. Elections were often linked to rigging and violence.
  • Human Rights Violations: Reports show many human rights abuses under her rule, including:
    • Enforced disappearances
    • Extrajudicial killings
  • Media Censorship: Hasina's administration has been criticized for limiting press freedom. Journalists who criticize the government face:
    • Harassment
    • Legal actions
    • Shutdowns of media outlets
  • Economic Factors: Although Bangladesh’s economy is growing, it faces challenges like:
    • Unemployment
    • Inflation
    • Economic inequality
  • Youth dissatisfaction, especially regarding job opportunities, has increased unrest.
• About the Controversial Quota System:
  • Student Protests: Protests began in July against the quota system that reserved government jobs after a High Court ruling restored a 30% quota for the families of freedom fighters.
  • Demands to Eliminate Quota: With around 32 million young people without jobs or education in a population of 170 million, students demanded the removal of the 30% quota.
  • Violent Protests: On July 16, protests escalated into violence, leading to clashes with security forces and pro-government supporters. A curfew was imposed, and internet access was cut off.
  • Calls for Resignation: Although the quota was reduced, students continued to demand Sheikh Hasina's resignation, leading to widespread civil unrest.
  • Judicial Action: To manage the protests, the Supreme Court reduced the quota from 30% to 5%, stating that 93% of jobs should be filled based on merit.
  • Escalating Tensions: The former Prime Minister labeled the students as terrorists and called for strong action against them, which intensified demands for her resignation.
  • Resignation and Political Changes: On August 5, 2024, Sheikh Hasina resigned and left the country amidst protests. Many demonstrators stormed her residence while celebrations erupted in the streets.
  • Military Announcement: Bangladesh’s army chief, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, announced in a broadcast that Hasina had resigned and that the military would establish an interim government.

Significance of Sheikh Hasina's Tenure to India

• The Awami League (AL), led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has governed Bangladesh since 2009.
• Her leadership has helped to eliminate anti-India terrorist groups that operated in Bangladesh.
• Hasina's government has improved economic, social, and cultural ties between India and Bangladesh.

Actions Against Security Threats

• Her administration has addressed security challenges for India along the eastern border.
• Bangladesh has taken action against ethnic insurgent groups based in the country.
• In 2013, Bangladesh signed an extradition treaty to return militants to India.
• Key leaders from the United Liberation Front of Asom were handed over to India.

Significant Strategic Ties

• In the last ten years, strategic ties between India and Bangladesh have strengthened.
• Bangladesh has benefited from India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy, receiving grants and credits to enhance connectivity.

Action Against Anti-India Militant Groups

• Bangladesh shares borders with several northeastern Indian states that have faced militant issues.
• The government has cracked down on militant activities, including training camps and arms trafficking.

Land Boundary Agreement

• A historic agreement allowed the transfer of 111 enclaves from India to Bangladesh.
• India received 51 enclaves that were located in Bangladesh.

Line of Credit

• In 2010, during Hasina's visit to India, India provided $1 billion in credit to Bangladesh as part of its development assistance program.

Ganga Water Treaty

• In 1996, both nations signed the Ganga Water Treaty.

Connectivity to the Northeastern States

• Accessing India’s northeastern region through Bangladesh reduces the risks associated with the Siliguri Corridor, also known as the Chicken's Neck.
• Sheikh Hasina granted India transit rights, allowing goods to move from the Indian mainland to its northeastern states.

Key Achievements in Connectivity

• Included projects like the Maitri Setu bridge over the Feni River in Tripura.
• The Chilahati-Haldibari rail link has also been established.

Sheikh Hasina’s Ouster and Impact on India

• Sheikh Hasina's departure after 17 years in power means India has lost its strongest ally in the region.
• Hasina was always considered a friend to India, and the protests leading to her ousting reflected an anti-India sentiment due to her close ties with India.

India-Bangladesh Ties

• Unclear Nature of Interim Government: The chief of the Bangladesh army, Waker-uz-Zaman, has taken charge and suggested forming an interim government. However, the exact details of this government are still uncertain. There is also no timeline for new elections, which means the interim government will greatly influence Bangladesh's political future and its relationship with India.
• Impact on Transit Arrangements: The new regime in Bangladesh might change the transit and trans-shipment agreements that India relies on for better logistics to its Northeast region.
• Diplomatic Challenge: India has supported Prime Minister Hasina for the past decade, which has limited its interactions with opposition groups in Bangladesh. This puts India in a tough spot now, as dealing with the growing anti-India feelings in Bangladesh will be challenging.
• Impact on Border Security: The group Jamaat-e-Islami may have some sway in the interim government. India has had a rocky relationship with this group, and their influence could invite more involvement from Pakistan in Bangladeshi politics, affecting India's border security.
• The China Challenge: China is actively trying to increase its influence in Bangladesh and has the financial means to support the new government. This growing Chinese presence could surround India with unfriendly neighbors:
  • China and Pakistan to the west and north
  • A communist government in Nepal
  • Taliban-led Afghanistan to the west
  • An anti-India Maldives in the Indian Ocean
  • A potentially neutral regime in Bangladesh
• Concern over Trade and Free Trade Agreement (FTA): It is uncertain how or if FTA discussions will move forward under the interim government. Bilateral relations have thrived due to trade, transit agreements, security cooperation, and cultural exchanges, but Hasina's absence raises doubts about these gains.
• Bilateral Trade: Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in the subcontinent, and India ranks as Bangladesh's second-biggest partner in Asia after China. Their total trade reached $13 billion in the financial year 2023-24.
• Exports from India: Bangladesh is the largest market for Indian cotton, making up 34.9% of India's total cotton exports, which equates to around $2.4 billion in FY24. Other key exports include vegetables, coffee, tea, spices, sugar, refined petroleum, chemicals, iron and steel, and vehicles.
• Imports to India: The primary imports from Bangladesh are ready-made garments, valued at $391 million in FY24. Bangladesh has positioned itself as a major global textile hub. Other significant items imported include fish, plastic, leather, and apparel.
• On Free Trade Agreement (FTA): In October 2023, discussions on an FTA began during a meeting in Dhaka. A successful FTA could greatly enhance Bangladesh’s market access and provide Indian consumers with more manufactured goods. This agreement could reduce or eliminate tariffs on traded goods and facilitate more trade and investment.
• Projected Impact of FTA: A World Bank study in 2012 estimated that a full FTA would boost Bangladesh’s exports to India by 182%, while a partial FTA might increase exports by 134%. Improved transport and connectivity could raise Bangladesh's exports by 297%, with India seeing a potential export increase of 172% under similar circumstances.
• Impact on Infrastructure and Connectivity: A decline in India-Bangladesh relations could hinder India’s access to the Northeast, which is connected to mainland India only by a narrow corridor called the “Chicken’s Neck.” Since 2016, India has provided Bangladesh with $8 billion in credit lines for road, rail, shipping, and port development.
• Recent Infrastructure Developments: In November 2023, two key projects were inaugurated: the Akhaura-Agartala cross-border rail link and the Khulna-Mongla Port rail line. The Akhaura-Agartala link creates an alternative route to the Northeast and reduces train travel time between Agartala and Kolkata from 31 hours to 10 hours, promoting tourism, trade, and cultural exchanges.
• Transport Connections: Currently, five bus routes operate between India and Bangladesh, connecting cities like Kolkata, Agartala, and Guwahati to Dhaka. In 2023, agreements were made to utilize the Chittagong and Mongla ports for smoother cargo movement between mainland India and the Northeast.
• Return of Islamist Extremism: The ousted Prime Minister represented a secular and modern version of Bangladeshi nationalism, acting as a barrier against radical extremism. The current political situation may allow for a resurgence of Islamist, anti-Hindu, and pro-Pakistan sentiments in Bangladesh.

Way Forward

• Political Crisis: Bangladesh is experiencing its most serious political crisis since gaining independence in 1971. This turmoil has led to the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina amidst widespread anti-government protests.
• India's Concern: India has expressed hope for a quick resolution to the political unrest in Bangladesh. However, it remains worried about the situation of minorities until peace and order are restored.
• Humanitarian Aid: India is ready to provide humanitarian support, which includes medical assistance and supplies, to help Bangladesh during this difficult period.
• Building Diplomatic Relations: India needs to act swiftly to establish connections with the new government. Significant diplomatic work will be necessary to regain lost influence.
• Respecting Local Sentiments: Similar to its approach during Nepal's 2006 movement, India should respect the wishes of the Bangladeshi people and avoid appearing to favor Sheikh Hasina.
• Logistics and Transit Arrangements: The new government in Bangladesh may change transit and trans-shipment arrangements. India needs to collaborate with them to ensure smooth logistics for its Northeast region.
• Trade Adjustments: Indian exporters and businesses are preparing alternative plans to lessen the impact of the crisis. The coming days will be crucial in determining how much trade and economic stability is affected.
• Collaborative Approach: India should partner with allies such as the US, UK, and Europe to reduce violence during this time. Working with the Bangladesh Army will be important to ensure a peaceful transition to a new government.
• Economic Stabilization: India aims to collaborate with partners in the Gulf, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, to create strategies for stabilizing Bangladesh's economy and reducing the risks of extremism.

Conclusion

• In the changing situation in Bangladesh, India, as a lively multi-party democracy, should support the voices of the people in its neighboring country.
• India will need a lot of strategic patience and trust in the importance of geography to build strong ties with Bangladesh.
• It is essential for India to believe in the importance of trade and commerce in this relationship.
• A strong political commitment is necessary to move beyond the issues caused by the Partition when working with a changing Bangladesh.

UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Question (PYQ)

Mains:

Q. Analyze internal security threats and transborder crimes along Myanmar, Bangladesh and Pakistan borders including Line of Control (LoC). Also discuss the role played by various security forces in this regard. (2018)