The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 14th January 2025 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

The Trump card, Global Politics and outcomes for India

Why in News?

 The article discusses the potential impact of Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency on global politics and his approach to international relations. 

 The article explores Trump's unique leadership style, characterized by his boldness, populist rhetoric, and focus on American interests. 

•  It highlights his preference for bilateral agreements, skepticism towards multilateralism, and emphasis on American sovereignty. 
•  The article also examines the potential consequences of Trump's policies, including increased protectionism, competition with China, and the weakening of global institutions. 
•  Additionally, it considers the implications for India-U.S. relations under a second Trump presidency, emphasizing mutual interests in countering China and strengthening partnerships in defense and critical technologies. 
•  Overall, the article suggests that a second Trump presidency could lead to a disruptive and polarized global order, with significant implications for various countries, including India. 

It's 'America First'

Trump's Approach to the "Rules-Based International Order"

• America First Doctrine: Trump's approach is rooted in the "America First" doctrine, prioritizing U.S. interests above all. 
• Multilateralism and International Agreements: He rejects multilateralism and international agreements that he perceives as unfavorable to the U.S., favoring bilateral agreements instead. 
• International Institutions: Trump is critical of international institutions like the United Nations and regional bodies such as NATO, believing they disproportionately benefit other nations at the expense of the U.S. 
• American Sovereignty: He prioritizes American sovereignty over global governance, reflecting a transactional and nationalistic approach to international relations. 

Trumpian Worldview

• Bully Pulpit and Personal Branding: Trump's strategy involves using the bully pulpit and strong personal branding to influence public opinion and policy. 
• Unconventional Deal-Making: He advocates for unconventional deal-making approaches, focusing on practical outcomes rather than theoretical constructs. 
• Winner-Take-All Approach: The Trumpian worldview emphasizes a winner-take-all mentality, contrasting with traditional win-win scenarios in international relations. 

Trump's Transactionalism and MAGA Policy

• MAGA Policy: Trump's "Make America Great Again" policy is expected to influence global geopolitics significantly. 
• Protectionism and Trade Wars: The policy entails a rise in protectionism, escalating tariffs, and trade wars, leading to increased economic uncertainty globally. 
• Competition with China: There will be intensified competition with China, framing Beijing as an economic and ideological adversary, which will impact global stability, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. 

Impact of Trump's Skepticism about Global Institutions

• Adventurism and Nationalism: Trump's skepticism towards global institutions is likely to inspire adventurism in global politics and a rise in nationalisms that override international law. 
• Polarization in Global Politics: Global politics will become increasingly polarized, with more contentious debates on free trade, immigration, and globalization. 
• Climate Policy: Climate policy and action are expected to be downgraded under Trump's leadership. 
• Global Market Instability: There will be instability in global markets, affecting both developed and developing nations. 

American Isolationism and Its Global Consequences

• American Isolationism: Under the MAGA policy, America is likely to adopt an isolationist stance, avoiding direct involvement in external conflicts. 
• Empowering Rival Powers: This isolationism may empower rival powers like China and Russia, who are already united in their opposition to U.S. influence, to expand their global footprint through economic and military means. 
• Disruption and Power Realignments: MAGA could signify disruption beyond American shores and lead to significant power realignments globally. 

Ties with India, the Line for New Delhi

• Strategic Outlook for India-U.S. Relations: The strategic outlook for India-U.S. relations under a second Trump presidency is mixed. While relations between the two countries have evolved positively over the last two decades, there may be challenges ahead. 
• Friendship between Leaders: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's warm friendship with Trump is expected to facilitate continued constructive engagement between India and the U.S. 
• Geopolitical Clout and Mutual Interests: India's growing geopolitical clout and mutual interests with the U.S. in countering China, particularly due to China's assertive military posture, will strengthen the strategic partnership. 
• Defence Cooperation and Critical Technologies: India-U.S. defence cooperation and partnerships in critical technologies are likely to continue strengthening, provided the new administration does not use export controls as pressure points. 
• Trade Frictions: Trade frictions could complicate the relationship, especially if protectionist policies are implemented. 
• Strengthening Groupings like the Quad: The incoming U.S. administration's focus on countering Chinese influence is expected to strengthen groupings like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad), which includes the U.S., Australia, India, and Japan. 
• Balance of Power in the Indo-Pacific: Maintaining the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific will require continued U.S. involvement, although India seeks to avoid over-reliance on America and ensure its strategic autonomy. 
• India's Strategic Priorities: India should continue to emphasize its strategic priorities, including border security, military modernization, counterterrorism efforts, and economic growth. 
• Energy Security and Indo-Pacific: Energy security, diversification of energy sources, and maintaining stable relationships with key energy suppliers are vital. Peace and stability in South Asia, along with vigilance against destabilizing influences from China and Pakistan, are also important. 
• Partnerships for Security and Development: Partnerships with Japan, Australia, the European Union, and ASEAN countries are essential for balancing China's rise and ensuring access to key technologies and defense preparedness. 
• Digital Transformation and Cybersecurity: Digital transformation, space exploration, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity for digital infrastructure are key for India's strategic future. Building resilience against cyber threats from hostile nations and non-state actors is crucial. 
• Soft Power and Democratic Values: India should deploy soft power by emphasizing democratic and constitutional values, pluralism, humanitarian engagement, and diaspora outreach. 
• Strategic Relationship with Russia: Continuing to focus on the strategic relationship with Russia is important due to the complex nature of the partnership and its role as a counterweight to the growing Sino-Russian alignment in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific. 

Conclusions: On Trump Again

•  The potential reality of a second Trump presidency suggests that established patterns of history and geopolitics may no longer be reliable guides for the future. 
•  Instead, a disruptive, polarized, and unstable global order could emerge, fundamentally changing the landscape of global politics. 
•  The concept of a G-Zero world, where no single country or group of countries can effectively lead, may become the new norm, with the "law of the jungle" serving as the new global playbook. 

 Resisting transparency, eroding public trust 

Why in News?

The amendment to Rule 93(2) of the Conduct of Election Rules, 1961, to restrict public access to election-related records, has no place in a democracy.

Last year, during the Chandigarh mayor elections, presiding officer Anil Masih was caught on CCTV manipulating votes to favor the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This incident highlighted the need for transparency in the electoral process to prevent fraud. 

• Amendment to Rule 93(2): Despite the need for transparency, the Central government amended Rule 93(2) of the Conduct of Election Rules, 1961, to restrict public access to election-related records. 
• Court Directive: The amendment followed a directive from the Punjab and Haryana High Court, which ordered the Election Commission of India (ECI) to provide information under Rule 93(2). 
• Original Rule 93(2): Previously, Rule 93(2) allowed public inspection of all election-related documents except those exempt under Rule 93(1). 
• Narrowing Public Access: The amendment narrows public access by specifying that only certain papers related to the election are open to public inspection. This could restrict access to important records like Form 17C and CCTV footage. 

Disconcerting Role of the ECI

• Safeguards in the Law: The Representation of the People Act, 1951, includes safeguards to prevent the ruling party from misusing its power to frame rules. The rules can only be made after consulting the Election Commission. 
• ECI's Opposition to Transparency: It is puzzling why the ECI, responsible for ensuring free and fair elections, opposes transparency, especially when there are serious questions about the electoral process's integrity. 

Handling of Voter Turnout Figures in 2024

• Lack of Transparency: During the 2024 general elections, the ECI did not release absolute voter turnout figures after the initial phases of voting. 
• Unexplained Revision: There was an unusual revision of 6% in voter turnout in some phases without explanation, leading to public demands for disclosure of Form 17C. 

Significance of Form 17C

• Contents of Form 17C: Form 17C consists of two parts. Part I, filled by the Presiding Officer at the close of voting, includes voter turnout and votes recorded in the Electronic Voting Machine (EVM). Part II, filled on counting day, records votes secured by each candidate. 
• Purpose of Form 17C: The form helps verify if voter turnout matches the votes polled and counted, ensuring transparency in the electoral process. 

Political Parties' Demand for Form 17C

• Post-Election Requests: After the general elections, several political parties requested copies of Form 17C due to discrepancies in voter turnout figures. 
• Specific Claims: For example, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), an ally of the BJP, claimed significant increases in voter turnout in certain constituencies in Odisha, raising doubts about election integrity. 

Concerns in Haryana and Maharashtra Elections

• Similar Issues: In the Assembly elections of Haryana and Maharashtra, similar concerns about voter turnout discrepancies led to requests for Form 17C and other election records. 

Refusal to Disclose Information

• ECI's Stonewalling: The ECI refused to disclose requests for Form 17C and other election records, including to candidates and political parties. 
• Legal Claims: The ECI claimed it was not legally mandated to share Form 17C with anyone other than candidates and political parties, arguing that unrestricted disclosure could lead to misuse. 
• Technical Issues: The ECI also cited a lack of technical facilities to scan and upload documents as a reason for non-disclosure. 

Inexplicable Reluctance of the ECI

• Part 1 of Form 17C: Part 1 of Form 17C is given to polling agents at the booth, and there is no prohibition on further dissemination. 
• Digital India Initiative: The claim that Returning Officers lack the technical ability to scan and upload a few thousand pages is not credible in the context of Digital India. 

Release of Statistical Reports without Form 17C Data

• Delayed Release: On December 26, 2024, the ECI released 42 statistical reports, over six months after the general elections, without including data from Form 17C. 
• Lack of Conclusive Data: The absence of Form 17C data prevents resolution of discrepancies between votes polled and counted. 

Conclusion

Transparency is crucial for maintaining public trust and participation in the electoral process. The Supreme Court's decision to strike down the electoral bonds scheme in 2024 highlighted the importance of a voter's fundamental right to information. A challenge to the amendment restricting public access to election records has reached the Supreme Court. Instead of awaiting the court's decision, the ECI and the BJP should recognize that the amendment is incompatible with democratic principles and withdraw it.