The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 16th May 2025 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

The paradox of the approach to the Manipur issue

Why is it News?

 The ongoing situation in Manipur, marked by violence and unrest, has become a matter of national concern, especially in the context of national security. The contrasting responses from the Prime Minister to different crises highlight the varying levels of priority given to different issues within the country. 

Introduction

The political deadlock in Manipur has persisted for nearly two years, with no clear resolution in sight despite the severe impact of the violence, which has resulted in over 250 deaths and displaced thousands. The situation has been exacerbated by the lack of attention from national leadership, particularly Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has not prioritized addressing the crisis in Manipur as he did with other incidents, such as the Pahalgam terror attack.

India-Pakistan Stand-off vs. Manipur Crisis

The recent military stand-off between India and Pakistan was met with a prompt and serious response, reflecting public sentiment about the need to combat cross-border terrorism. In contrast, the ongoing crisis in Manipur, despite its human toll and political implications, has not received the same level of national attention or urgency.

Approach to the Northeast: Manipur vs. Kashmir

The treatment of Manipur by New Delhi differs significantly from that of Kashmir, highlighting a broader pattern in the Northeast policy. Manipur is viewed through the lens of national security and regime preservation, rather than the unique local realities and challenges it faces.

Recent Developments in Manipur

There have been attempts by civil society and security experts to shift the blame onto Kuki militants, such as the claims made by the Chief Minister's office about Kuki militants posing a threat. However, these narratives often overlook the real and emerging threats, particularly the rise of Valley-Based Insurgent Groups (VBIGs) since May 3, 2023.

The 'buffer zone' established after Home Minister Amit Shah's visit in May 2023, aimed at separating the Meitei-dominated valleys from the Kuki-Zomi-Hmar hill regions, reflects the ongoing struggle to maintain order in the state.

Policy Shortcomings

The focus of New Delhi appears to be more on political optics rather than genuine reform in Manipur. Since Operation All-Clear in 2004, there have been missed opportunities for significant improvements in various areas such as:

• Intelligence Gathering: There has been no major enhancement in the ability to gather and analyze intelligence, which is crucial for understanding and addressing security threats.
• Counterinsurgency Upgrades: The lack of upgrades in counterinsurgency strategies and capabilities has hindered effective responses to insurgent activities.
• Police and Army Modernization: The stalled modernization of police and army forces has affected their operational effectiveness and ability to maintain law and order.

Fencing Policy: An Outdated Perspective

New Delhi's push to scrap the Free Movement Regime with Myanmar and invest over ₹31,000 crore to fence the 1,643 km India-Myanmar border, including the 398 km stretch in Manipur, reflects an outdated security perspective. This hardline approach seems to be a response to majoritarian insecurities from valley-based groups and aligns with political interests rather than current security needs.

Key Concerns Around Border Fencing Policy

Superficial Security Measures and Arms Mismanagement

National security policies related to arms management are criticized for being more about public perception than effective reform. For instance:

• Arms surrender ceremonies, such as the one held by the Arambai Tenggol militia, are seen as superficial, with many surrendered weapons being of dubious origin, raising questions about the sincerity of these efforts.
• Of the 6,020 stolen arms reported, only about 4,000 have been returned so far, indicating a lack of genuine disarmament progress.
• The deadlines set by Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla for arms surrender have not been followed up with strong legal actions, further highlighting the gap between policy and practice.

Consequences of Weak Security Policy

The combination of easy access to arms and the lack of a credible state response perpetuates the ethnic security dilemma in Manipur. The imposition of President's Rule on February 13, 2025, following internal strife within the BJP and a change in leadership, serves as a symbolic warning to armed groups about the intolerance for violence. However, the necessary enforcement and systemic reforms remain inadequate.

Conclusion

A gradual return to normalcy in Manipur may open the door for serious political discussions with opposing groups, focusing on genuine demands and rebuilding trust in government institutions. The differing commemorations of May 3 by rival parties illustrate the political exploitation of the situation. Ultimately, resolving the political impasse and restoring law and order will require substantive policy changes that transcend mere political posturing and prioritize effective governance.

Under control

Why in News?

Low retail inflation is encouraging news for both consumers and policymakers.

Introduction

April’s retail and wholesale inflation data show a substantial decrease, reaching a 69-month low for retail and a 13-month low for wholesale inflation. This positive shift reflects the effectiveness of recent monetary measures and government interventions, benefiting both the public and policymakers. The decline in key food prices, coupled with improved supply management and liquidity conditions, indicates a gradual control over inflationary pressures.

April’s Inflation Trends: A Positive Sign

• Retail inflation reached a 69-month low in April.
• Wholesale inflation fell to a 13-month low.
• This data provides relief to both the public and policymakers.

Implications for the Public and Policymakers

For the public: Confirms the continued easing of prices observed earlier in the year.

For policymakers: Validates the control over last year’s high inflation and supports the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recent interest rate cuts.

Key Drivers Behind Falling Inflation

• Retail inflation decrease driven by:
• Vegetable prices: Nearly 11% contraction, influenced by a high base effect from last year’s high inflation (27% to 30% during February to April).
• Pulse prices: 5.2% decrease.
• Wholesale inflation decline due to:
• Vegetable prices: 18.26% contraction in April, also reflecting a high base effect from the previous year.

Government’s Role in Inflation Control

Efforts contributing to easing inflation include:

• Increasing buffer stocks of essential food items.
• Conducting open market releases of food stocks.
• Easing imports during supply shortages.

Other Influencing Factors

• Liquidity crunch in banks during early months of the year: Reduced liquidity suppresses inflation by limiting money available for lending to companies and the public.
• Future inflation outlook dependent on: Progress and variability of the monsoon season, tariff uncertainties, and potential trade retaliations.

Policy Implications from Latest Inflation Data

Potential RBI monetary policy response: Likely to encourage further interest rate cuts in June, contingent on upcoming GDP growth data.

• Fuel pricing concerns: Public sector oil marketing companies should reduce fuel prices to align with the 22-month low crude oil inflation in the Wholesale Price Index (WPI).
• Dynamic pricing policy: If fuel prices are not adjusted, the government should reconsider this policy, as fuel prices have remained stable despite a significant drop in oil prices.

Conclusion

The latest inflation trends indicate that the Reserve Bank of India may consider further interest rate cuts, depending on upcoming GDP data. Additionally, the government needs to address fuel pricing policies to maintain credibility. Despite these positive developments, the future of inflation remains contingent on factors such as the monsoon and trade uncertainties, necessitating ongoing vigilance for sustained economic stability and growth.