In which method of population forecast, percentage increase in populat...
Explanation: In the geometrical increase method, percentage increase in population from decade to decade is assumed constant. Percentage increase in population is found from a population of 3 or 4 decades and then its average is found.
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In which method of population forecast, percentage increase in populat...
Geometrical increase method
The geometrical increase method is a method of population forecasting that assumes a constant percentage increase in population from decade to decade. It is based on the assumption that the population grows at a constant rate over time.
Explanation:
The geometrical increase method uses a fixed rate of increase to forecast the population growth in the future. This method assumes that the population will continue to grow at the same rate as it has in the past. It is based on the concept of exponential growth, where the population increases by a fixed percentage each year.
This method involves calculating the growth rate by dividing the difference in population between two consecutive decades by the population at the beginning of the first decade. This growth rate is then applied to the population at the end of the last decade to estimate the population in the future.
For example, if the population in a certain area is 100,000 in the year 2000 and 120,000 in the year 2010, the growth rate would be (120,000 - 100,000) / 100,000 = 0.2, or 20%.
To forecast the population in the year 2020 using the geometrical increase method, we would multiply the population in 2010 (120,000) by the growth rate (1 + 0.2) to get 144,000.
This method assumes that the factors affecting population growth, such as birth rates, death rates, and migration rates, will remain constant over time. It does not take into account any changes in these factors or any external factors that may affect population growth.
While the geometrical increase method provides a simple and straightforward way to forecast population growth, it may not accurately predict the actual population in the future. This is because population growth is influenced by various complex factors that can change over time. Therefore, it is important to consider other methods and factors when forecasting population growth.