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The suitable method of forecasting population for a young and rapidly increasing city is
- a)Arithmetic method
- b)Geometrical increase method
- c)Incremental increase method
- d)Graphical method
Correct answer is option 'B'. Can you explain this answer?
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Verified Answer
The suitable method of forecasting population for a young and rapidly ...
Various methods for population forecasting as suitable for that city, considering the growth pattern, are as follows:
1. Arithmetical increase method:
In this method assumed that the population is increasing at a constant rate. This method is suitable for a large and old city with considerable development.
In this method assumed that the population is increasing at a constant rate. This method is suitable for a large and old city with considerable development.
2. Geometrical increase method (or geometrical progression method):
In this method, the percentage increase in population from decade to decade is assumed to remain constant. This method gives higher values and hence should be applied for a young and rapidly increasing city, but only for a few decades.
In this method, the percentage increase in population from decade to decade is assumed to remain constant. This method gives higher values and hence should be applied for a young and rapidly increasing city, but only for a few decades.
3. Incremental increase method:
This method is a modification of arithmetical increase method and it is suitable for an average size town under the normal condition where the growth rate is found to be in increasing order.
This method is a modification of arithmetical increase method and it is suitable for an average size town under the normal condition where the growth rate is found to be in increasing order.
4. Logistic curve method:
This method is used when the growth rate of the population due to births, deaths, and migrations takes place under normal situation and it is not subjected to any extraordinary changes like an epidemic, war, earthquake or any natural disaster, etc.
This method is used when the growth rate of the population due to births, deaths, and migrations takes place under normal situation and it is not subjected to any extraordinary changes like an epidemic, war, earthquake or any natural disaster, etc.
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The suitable method of forecasting population for a young and rapidly ...
Geometrical increase method for forecasting population:
Population forecasting for a young and rapidly increasing city like in this scenario requires a method that takes into account the exponential growth trend. The geometrical increase method is the most suitable approach for such a situation. Here's why:
Understanding the method:
- Geometrical increase method assumes that the population growth rate remains constant over time.
- It takes into consideration the fact that in a rapidly increasing city, the population tends to grow exponentially rather than linearly.
- This method is based on the principle that each year's population is a multiple of the previous year's population, rather than a fixed increment.
Applicability to a young and rapidly increasing city:
- In a young city experiencing rapid growth, the population tends to double, triple, or even quadruple in short periods of time.
- The geometrical increase method can accurately capture this exponential growth trend and provide more realistic population forecasts compared to other methods like arithmetic or incremental increase.
Benefits of using geometrical increase method:
- It helps in predicting future population levels more accurately, especially in cities with high growth rates.
- By considering the exponential nature of population growth, this method can assist city planners in making informed decisions regarding infrastructure development, resource allocation, and overall urban planning.
In conclusion, for forecasting population in a young and rapidly increasing city, the geometrical increase method is the most suitable choice due to its ability to account for exponential growth trends and provide more accurate forecasts.
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