Arithmetical Increase Method vs Geometrical Increase Method in Population Forecasting

Introduction:
Population forecasting is an essential aspect of urban planning and development. It helps in determining the future needs of a city, such as infrastructure, housing, and amenities. Two common methods used for population forecasting are the arithmetical increase method and the geometrical increase method. In this article, we will compare these two methods and explain why the arithmetical increase method gives a lesser value as compared to the geometrical increase method.

Arithmetical Increase Method:
The arithmetical increase method assumes that the population of a city increases by a fixed amount in each time period. For example, if the population of a city is 100,000 in 2020 and is expected to increase by 10,000 every year, then the population in 2021 will be 110,000, in 2022 it will be 120,000, and so on. This method is simple and easy to use.

Geometrical Increase Method:
The geometrical increase method assumes that the population of a city increases by a fixed percentage in each time period. For example, if the population of a city is 100,000 in 2020 and is expected to increase by 10% every year, then the population in 2021 will be 110,000 (100,000 x 1.1), in 2022 it will be 121,000 (110,000 x 1.1), and so on. This method is more complex than the arithmetical increase method but is considered more accurate.

Comparison:
When comparing the two methods, the arithmetical increase method gives a lesser value as compared to the geometrical increase method. This is because the arithmetical increase method assumes a fixed increase in population, whereas the geometrical increase method assumes a percentage increase. In most cases, the population growth rate is not constant and varies over time. Therefore, the geometrical increase method is more accurate as it takes into account the changing growth rate.

Conclusion:
Both the arithmetical increase method and the geometrical increase method have their advantages and disadvantages. The arithmetical increase method is simple and easy to use but may not be as accurate as the geometrical increase method. The geometrical increase method is more complex but takes into account the changing growth rate of the population. Therefore, it is essential to use the appropriate method for population forecasting based on the available data and the specific needs of the city.

Ans (a) lesser