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Which of the following method is used to forecast the population of old and very large city?
- a)Arithmetical increase method
- b)Geometric progression method
- c)Graphical method
- d)Logistic curve method
Correct answer is option 'A'. Can you explain this answer?
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Which of the following method is used to forecast the population of ol...
Various methods for population forecasting as suitable for that city, considering the growth pattern, are as follows:
- Arithmetical increase method:
- In this method assumed that the population is increasing at a constant rate.
- This method is suitable for a large and old city with considerable development.
- Geometrical increase method (or geometrical progression method):
- In this method, the percentage increase in population from decade to decade is assumed to remain constant.
- This method gives higher values and hence should be applied for a young and rapidly increasing city, but only for a few decades.
- Incremental increase method:
- This method is a modification of arithmetical increase method and it is suitable for an average size town under the normal condition where the growth rate is found to be in increasing order.
- Logistic curve method:
- This method is used when the growth rate of the population due to births, deaths, and migrations takes place under normal situation and it is not subjected to any extraordinary changes like an epidemic, war, earthquake or any natural disaster, etc.
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Which of the following method is used to forecast the population of ol...
Arithmetical increase method
The arithmetical increase method is used to forecast the population of old and very large cities. This method assumes a constant increase in population over time, based on an arithmetic progression.
Steps in the arithmetical increase method:
1. Collect historical population data: Gather data on the population of the city over a period of time. The more data available, the more accurate the forecast will be.
2. Determine the time period: Decide on the time period for which the population forecast is required. This could be short-term or long-term, depending on the purpose of the forecast.
3. Calculate the arithmetic mean: Find the arithmetic mean of the population data collected. This is done by summing up all the population values and dividing it by the number of data points.
4. Compute the arithmetic difference: Calculate the arithmetic difference between consecutive population values. This is done by subtracting the population of a previous year from the population of the next year.
5. Find the average difference: Calculate the average difference by summing up all the arithmetic differences and dividing it by the number of differences.
6. Forecast the population: Use the average difference to forecast the population for the desired time period. Multiply the average difference by the number of years in the forecast period and add it to the latest population value.
7. Verify the forecast: Compare the forecasted population with the actual population values for the corresponding years. Adjustments may be required based on any significant changes or factors not considered in the arithmetical increase method.
Advantages of the arithmetical increase method:
- Simple and easy to use.
- Does not require complex calculations or assumptions.
- Provides a rough estimate of population growth.
Limitations of the arithmetical increase method:
- Assumes a constant rate of population growth, which may not hold true in reality.
- Does not account for factors such as migration, birth rates, or government policies that can affect population growth.
- Accuracy decreases over longer forecast periods.
- Relies heavily on historical data, which may not accurately represent future trends.
The arithmetical increase method is used to forecast the population of old and very large cities. This method assumes a constant increase in population over time, based on an arithmetic progression.
Steps in the arithmetical increase method:
1. Collect historical population data: Gather data on the population of the city over a period of time. The more data available, the more accurate the forecast will be.
2. Determine the time period: Decide on the time period for which the population forecast is required. This could be short-term or long-term, depending on the purpose of the forecast.
3. Calculate the arithmetic mean: Find the arithmetic mean of the population data collected. This is done by summing up all the population values and dividing it by the number of data points.
4. Compute the arithmetic difference: Calculate the arithmetic difference between consecutive population values. This is done by subtracting the population of a previous year from the population of the next year.
5. Find the average difference: Calculate the average difference by summing up all the arithmetic differences and dividing it by the number of differences.
6. Forecast the population: Use the average difference to forecast the population for the desired time period. Multiply the average difference by the number of years in the forecast period and add it to the latest population value.
7. Verify the forecast: Compare the forecasted population with the actual population values for the corresponding years. Adjustments may be required based on any significant changes or factors not considered in the arithmetical increase method.
Advantages of the arithmetical increase method:
- Simple and easy to use.
- Does not require complex calculations or assumptions.
- Provides a rough estimate of population growth.
Limitations of the arithmetical increase method:
- Assumes a constant rate of population growth, which may not hold true in reality.
- Does not account for factors such as migration, birth rates, or government policies that can affect population growth.
- Accuracy decreases over longer forecast periods.
- Relies heavily on historical data, which may not accurately represent future trends.
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Which of the following method is used to forecast the population of old and very large city?a)Arithmetical increase methodb)Geometric progression methodc)Graphical methodd)Logistic curve methodCorrect answer is option 'A'. Can you explain this answer?
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