Exit Polls: How reliable? | Gist of Rajya Sabha TV / RSTV (now Sansad TV) - UPSC PDF Download

Introduction

• Exit polls are post-voting surveys that are carried out immediately after a voter leaves the polling booth.
• These surveys attempt to forecast the final outcome using data gathered from voters. 
• It evaluates how well political parties and their candidates are supported. There are numerous organisations that carry these out. Sampling is the first step in predicting exit polls.

Differences between Exit and Opinion polls

• One key difference between exit polls and opinion polls is the timing. Exit polls are conducted after an election or referendum and survey how people actually did vote. Opinion polls are conducted before elections and survey how people intend to vote.
• Moreover, opinion polls can ask a much broader range of questions to gauge the mood of the electorate. Examples of opinion poll questions include:
  • If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
  • Do you think the country is moving in the right or wrong direction?
  • Do you approve of the job the president is doing with regards to foreign policy?
• Another key difference is who does the polling and for what purpose the results are used. Exit polls are typically undertaken by news networks in order to analyse and predict the results of elections directly after voting closes. Opinion polls, on the other hand, are undertaken for analytical and predictive purposes by news networks. They are also regularly used by political parties as a strategic campaigning tool.

The reason why Election Commission of India (ECI) is against these polls:

• If the organisation conducting the surveys is thought to be biassed, both types of polls can be debatable.
• The selection, wording, and timing of the survey's questions, as well as the characteristics of the sample used, can all affect its estimates.
• Political parties often say that many opinion and exit polls are driven and funded by their competitors, and could have a distorting effect on the choices voters make in a protracted election, rather than simply reflecting public emotion or opinions.
• Exit polls are prohibited between the poll's opening and the end of its final phase for a half-hour under Section 126A of the Representation of the People's Act of 1951.

Opposition to their regulation

• Regulating these polls is seen as a curb on the fundamental freedom of speech and expression.
• Another criticism is that the voters have the right to know what other people’s views are on critical electoral issues so that they can form an informed opinion before casting their votes.

International practices

• Sixteen European Union countries ban reporting of opinion polls, with ban timeframes ranging from a full month to just 24 hours before polling day.
• Italy, Slovakia and Luxembourg have a ban of more than 7 days.
• France – The French ban has been reduced to 24 hours ahead of voting day.
• UK – There are no restrictions on publishing results of opinion polls — however, results of exit polls can’t be published until the voting is over.
• US – Media coverage of opinion polls is regarded as an integral part of free speech in elections, and publication is allowed at any time.
• The only restriction that exists — not reporting likely outcomes from exit polls before voting is over on election day — is one that news organisations commissioning the polls voluntarily impose upon themselves.