International Relations - 3 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

Future of the Commonwealth

Why in news:

The death of Queen Elizabeth II of the UK signifies not only the conclusion of a chapter for the British monarchy, but also a pivotal moment for the 14 Commonwealth realms over which she presided as the Head of State.

End of an Era: The Death of Queen Elizabeth II and the Commonwealth Realms

Background:

• The socio-economic environment in the 14 Commonwealth realms has undergone significant transformation since the death of Queen Elizabeth II.
• Some countries among these 14 have called for establishing a republic and breaking free of historical ties to the British monarchy.
• A republic is a form of government where supreme power is held by the people and their elected representatives.
• More nations may follow Barbados in removing the British monarch from the role of head of state during the reign of King Charles III, the Queen’s successor.
• In 2021, Barbados became the 18th country to remove the British monarch and substitute them with a national government functionary.

What is the Commonwealth of Nations?

• The Commonwealth of Nations is a group of 56 countries composed mostly of former British colonies.
• It was established by the London Declaration in 1949.
• The members of the Commonwealth are predominantly located in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and the Pacific, with many of them emerging economies.
• The three European members of the group are Cyprus, Malta, and the U.K.
• The developed nations of the Commonwealth are Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.

What are the Republics and Realms within the Commonwealth?

• The Commonwealth consists of both Republics and Realms.
• The British monarch is the Head of State for the realms, whereas the republics are ruled by elected governments except in the case of five countries — Brunei Darussalam, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malaysia, and Tonga — each a self-governed monarchy.
• The realms include Antigua and Barbuda, Australia, the Bahamas, Belize, Canada, Grenada, Jamaica, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu.

What is the relevance of Commonwealth in today's world?

• Despite the death of the queen and the decolonization of the British Empire, the Commonwealth still holds relevance in the age of multilateral diplomacy.
• The Commonwealth provides a forum for states to express their views, advance their interests, and shape global norms.
• The symbolic head of the Commonwealth is the monarch, but the leaders of the free world make the Commonwealth work.
• Queen Elizabeth played a critical role in championing the organization and maintaining its relevance, regularly travelling to meet with leaders of Commonwealth nations across the world.

What is the future of the Commonwealth?

• Australia, New Zealand, and the Bahamas are likely to become republics in the future.
• Governments in five other Caribbean nations - Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Grenada, Jamaica, and Saint Kitts and Nevis - have also signaled their intention to become republics.
• There is a possibility that after the death of Queen Elizabeth, the Commonwealth realms might become a relic of the past.
• Nations that suffered a history of colonialism, along with its attendant violence and resource extraction, may move forward to establish themselves as republics.

ASEAN-India Economic Ministers’ Meeting

Why in news:

• India and Cambodia jointly chaired the 19th ASEAN-India Economic Ministers' meeting, which took place in Cambodia.
• The meeting was attended by the Economic Ministers or their representatives from all 10 ASEAN countries.

Highlights of the ASEAN-India Meeting

Noted Economic Relations:

• Trade and economic relations between ASEAN and India are recovering from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
• Two-way trade between ASEAN and India reached USD 91.5 billion in 2021, an increase of 39.2% year-on-year.

ASEAN India Business Council:

• The ASEAN India Business Council (AIBC) made recommendations to enhance the ASEAN India economic partnership.
• AIBC was established in 2003 to bring private sector players from India and ASEAN countries on a single platform for business networking and idea sharing.
• The Ministers took note of the activities undertaken by AIBC in 2022.

Post Covid-19 Recovery:

• The Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to taking collective actions to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic.
• They worked towards a sustainable post-Covid-19 recovery.

Supply Chain Connectivity:

• The Ministers welcomed ASEAN and India to forge collective actions in securing a robust supply chain connectivity.
• This is to maintain the flow of essential goods and services through ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) Upgrade Negotiations.
• The Ministers focused on mutual recognition of Covid-19 vaccination, vaccines production, public health surveillance, and medical technologies.

ASEAN India Trade in Goods Agreement:

• The Ministers endorsed the Scope of the Review of the AITIGA to make it more user-friendly, simple, and trade facilitative for businesses.
• They focused on responsive global and regional challenges, including supply chain disruptions.
• The AITIGA Joint Committee was activated to undertake the review of AITIGA expeditiously.

Overview of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

• ASEAN is a regional organization that promotes economic, political, and security cooperation among its member states.

Establishment and Chairmanship:

• ASEAN was founded in 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand with the signing of the ASEAN Declaration by Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.
• The chairmanship of ASEAN rotates annually, based on the alphabetical order of the English names of Member States.

Population and GDP:

• ASEAN member states have a combined population of 650 million people and a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of USD 2.8 trillion.

Commodity Trade between India and ASEAN:

• India's main trading partners in the ASEAN region are Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand, with the commodity trade between India and ASEAN reaching 98.39 billion in the period of April 2021- February 2022.

Members:

• ASEAN brings together ten Southeast Asian states, including Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Eastern Economic Forum

Why in news:

• The 7th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) was held in Vladivostok by Russia, providing a venue for entrepreneurs to grow their businesses in the Far East region of Russia.

Overview of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF):

• EEF established in 2015 to attract foreign investments in the RFE
• Displays economic potential, business conditions, and investment opportunities in the region
• 380 agreements signed at the EEF in 2021, worth 3.6 trillion roubles
• Agreements focus on infrastructure, transportation, mineral excavation, construction, industry, and agriculture

Key Players in the Region:

• China, South Korea, Japan, and India are the key players
• China is the biggest investor, accounting for 90% of total investments
• China sees potential in promoting the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Polar Sea Route in the RFE

Objectives of Developing the RFE:

• Strategically developed to connect Russia to Asian trading routes
• Aims to attract more investments in the region with fast modernization of cities
• Aims to survive economic crisis and sanctions with the help of China and other Asian powers

Significance of the RFE:

• Encompasses one-third of Russia's territory with abundant natural resources
• Riches and resources contribute to 5% of Russia's GDP
• Geographically placed at a strategic location, acting as a gateway into Asia

India's Interests at the EEF:

• India seeks to expand its influence in the RFE
• India aims to deepen cooperation in energy, pharmaceuticals, maritime connectivity, healthcare, tourism, diamond industry, and the Arctic
• In 2019, India offered a USD 1 billion line of credit to develop infrastructure in the region
• Through the EEF, India aims to establish a strong inter-state interaction with Russia
• Business representatives of Gujarat and the Republic of Sakha (Russia) launched agreements in the diamond and pharmaceuticals industry.

India's Interests in the EEF and IPEF:

• India has vested interests in both the forums, EEF and IPEF
• EEF consists of countries like Myanmar, Armenia, Russia, and China forming an anti-sanctions group
• IPEF is the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

India's Investment in the EEF:

• India has not shied away from investing in the Russia-initiated EEF
• Western countries impose sanctions on Russia, but India still invests in the EEF

India's Acceptance of the IPEF Pillars:

• India has given its confirmation and acceptance to three of the four pillars in the IPEF
• India perceives the IPEF as a vital platform to strengthen its presence in the Indo-Pacific region

Benefits of Being Involved in the RFE Development:

• India understands the benefits of being involved in the development of the RFE
• RFE development presents opportunities for India's trade, investments, and regional presence

IPEF as a Platform for India's Presence in the Indo-Pacific:

• IPEF presents an ideal opportunity for India to act in the region without being part of the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
• IPEF also provides an opportunity for India to participate in regional groupings like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Indus Water Treaty

Why in news:

• India and Pakistan have recently conducted the 118th meeting of the Permanent Indus Commission for the purpose of discussing the Indus Water Treaty.

Discussion of Water-Related Issues:

• The 118th meeting of the Permanent Indus Commission was held between Pakistan and India to discuss water-related issues.
• The issues discussed included the advance sharing of flood information, the program of tours/inspections, and signing of the report of the Permanent Indus Commission for the year ending March 31, 2022.

Pakistan's Objections on India's Hydroelectric Projects:

• Pakistan highlighted its objections on India's hydroelectric projects on the Western rivers.
• Pakistan sought response to its objections on Indian projects including 1,000MW Pakal Dul.

Response of India:

• India assured to arrange tours/inspections after the coming flood season.
• India also assured that Pakistan's outstanding objections would be discussed in the next meeting as the Indian side is still in the process of examining the details.
• Both sides expressed the hope that the next meeting of the Commission would be held at an early date in Pakistan.

History of the Indus Water Dispute:

• The Indus river basin has six rivers - Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
• In 1947, the line of partition cut the Indus river system into two.
• Both the sides were dependent on water from the Indus river basin to keep their irrigation infrastructure functional and therefore, equitable distribution was needed.
• Initially, the Inter-dominion accord of May 1948 was adopted.
• In 1951, both the countries applied to the World Bank for funding of their respective irrigation projects on the Indus and its tributaries.
• The World Bank offered to mediate the conflict.
• Finally, in 1960, an agreement was reached between the two countries, and the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was signed.

Key provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is a water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan that outlines how water from the six rivers of the Indus River System would be shared between the two countries. The treaty was signed in 1960 by former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and then President of Pakistan, Ayub Khan.

Water-sharing provisions of the IWT:

• The IWT allocated the three western rivers—Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum—to Pakistan for unrestricted use, barring certain non-consumptive, agricultural, and domestic uses by India. The three Eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—were allocated to India for unrestricted usage. This means that 80% of the share of water or about 135 Million Acre Feet (MAF) went to Pakistan, while leaving the rest 33 MAF or 20% of water for use by India.

Permanent Indus Commission and its functions:

• The IWT requires both countries to establish a Permanent Indus Commission constituted by permanent commissioners on both sides. The functions of the commission include serving as a forum for the exchange of information on the rivers, for continued cooperation, and as the first stop for the resolution of conflicts.

Annexure C and D of the IWT:

• While Pakistan has rights over the waters of Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus, Annexure C of the IWT allows India certain agricultural uses. Annexure D allows India to build ‘run of the river‘ hydropower projects, meaning projects not requiring live storage of water. It also provides certain design specifications which India has to follow while developing such projects. The treaty also allows Pakistan to raise objections over such projects being built by India if it does not find them compliant with the specifications.

Dispute resolution mechanism of the IWT:

• The IWT provides a three-step dispute resolution mechanism. “Questions” on both sides can be resolved at the Permanent Commission, or can also be taken up at the inter-government level. In case of unresolved questions or “differences” between the countries on water-sharing, such as technical differences, either side can approach the World Bank to appoint a Neutral Expert (NE) to come to a decision. If either party is not satisfied with the NE’s decision or in case of “disputes” in the interpretation and extent of the treaty, matters can be referred to a Court of Arbitration. The IWT does not have a unilateral exit provision and is supposed to remain in force unless both countries ratify another mutually agreed pact.

Criticisms of the Indus Waters Treaty:

• Seen as a successful case of conflict resolution internationally, but not by India and Pakistan due to interpretation and implementation conflicts.
• Treaty is highly technical, leading to divergent interpretations.
• Uncertainty regarding the circumstances under which storage systems can be built.
• Tense political relations between India and Pakistan.
• India dissatisfied with not being able to build any storage systems on western rivers, except under certain exceptional circumstances.
• Pakistan suspicious and deliberately trying to suspend projects.
• Western rivers lie in disputed Jammu and Kashmir region.

Recommendations by Standing Committee on Water Resources:

• Renegotiate the treaty in light of present-day challenges such as climate change, global warming, and environmental impact assessment.
• Establish institutional structure or legislative framework to address climate change and other challenges not covered under the treaty.
• Repair canal systems in Punjab and Rajasthan to increase water carrying capacity.

Way Forward:

• Indus Waters Treaty considered one of the most successful water-sharing endeavours in the world.
• Need to update technical specifications and expand the scope of the agreement to address climate change.

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)

Why in news:

• Tibalaji Petrochem Pvt Ltd, a petrochemical company based in Mumbai, has been sanctioned by the US government.
• The company has been accused of selling Iranian petroleum products.
• This is the first time an Indian entity has faced such a designation under unilateral sanctions passed in 2018-19.
• The sanctions were imposed after the US withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Introduction to the JCPOA

• The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is also known as the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal.
• It was the result of prolonged negotiations from 2013 and 2015 between Iran and P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States + Germany).

Key components of the JCPOA:

• Under the deal, Iran agreed to significantly cut its stores of centrifuges, enriched uranium and heavy-water, all key components for nuclear weapons.
• Iran also agreed to implement a protocol that would allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to access its nuclear sites to ensure Iran would not be able to develop nuclear weapons in secret.

Sanctions under the JCPOA

• While the West agreed to lift sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear proliferation, other sanctions addressing alleged abuses of human rights and Iran’s ballistic missile programme remained in place.
• The US committed to lifting sanctions on oil exports, but continued to restrict financial transactions, which have deterred international trade with Iran.

Impact of the JCPOA

• Iran’s economy, after suffering years of recessions, currency depreciation, and inflation, stabilized significantly after the deal took effect, and its exports skyrocketed.

US withdrawal from the JCPOA

• After the US abandoned the deal in 2018 and reinstated banking and oil sanctions, Iran ramped up its nuclear programme in earnest, returning to approximately 97% of its pre-2015 nuclear capabilities.

Consequences of US Withdrawal from JCPOA

• US attempted to snap back sanctions in 2020, but other partners objected
• Several countries continued to import Iranian oil initially, but US ended waivers in 2019
• INSTEX was launched as a barter system to facilitate transactions with Iran outside the US banking system
• Iran announced it would no longer limit uranium enrichment in January 2020
• Talks held in September 2022 to discuss Iran’s agreement to reallow inspectors back to Iran for oversight over reactors
• US and Iran have exchanged their stands indirectly via the European Union for a “final draft” on rejoining the JCPOA

Significance of JCPOA for India

Enhance Regional Connectivity:

• Removing sanctions may revive India’s interest in the Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports
• India’s interest in the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC) may get a boost

Energy Security:

• US sanctions forced India to bring down oil imports to zero
• Restoration of ties between the US and Iran will help India to procure cheap Iranian oil and aid in energy security.

UN Peacekeeping Forces Fatalities

Why in news:

• The number of deaths of UN Peacekeeping Forces (UNPKF) in direct attacks has been reported as increasing by the Undersecretary General of the United Nations.

Rising Attacks on UN Peacekeepers and the Reasons Behind It

Growing Threat:

• Two BSF jawans died in a series of attacks on UN Peacekeepers in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) amidst anti-UN protests.
• UN Peacekeeping fatalities due to malicious acts (not illness or accidents) are increasing from 13 in 2020 to 25 in 2021 and to 26 till August 2022.

Tour Agenda:

• The UN Peacekeeping chief has placed the growing fatalities and lack of clear mandates for the ‘blue helmets’ at the top of the agenda as part of a tour to India, Pakistan, the UAE, and Japan.

Reasons for Rising Attacks:

• Deteriorating political and security environments in which peacekeeping operations are mandated. Such a situation in DRC does not entail the political lead conflict resolution.
• Terrorist or criminal groups threat: In the big operations in Africa, the efforts to establish peace and stability is threatened by terrorist or criminal groups favoring a chaotic environment.
• Lack of participation in decision making: India, having lost 179 peacekeepers over the past 60 years, has criticized peacekeeping operations for not giving adequate say to troops and police contributing countries in the kind of missions they participate in.
• Gap in mandate and practice: The mandate is actually for UN peacekeeping, on the ground in foreign missions the mandate changes to peace enforcing for which the forces are not trained.
• Peacekeeping limitations: Peacekeeping is neither a war, nor peace enforcement; thereby limiting the scope and potential of peacekeeping operations.

UN Peacekeeping Forces

Genesis:

• The UN's first peacekeeping mission was established in May 1948.
• It aimed to establish the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO) and monitor the Armistice Agreement between Israel and its Arab neighbors.
• UN military observers were deployed to the Middle East.

Strength of numbers:

• Over 1 million men and women have served under the UN flag in more than 70 UN peacekeeping operations since its genesis.
• Presently, 1,00,000 military, police and civilian personnel from 125 countries are serving in 14 peacekeeping operations.
• UN Peacekeepers' service and sacrifice under harsh and dangerous conditions has made the Blue Helmet a symbol of hope for millions of people worldwide.

A multidimensional role:

• Initially, UN Peacekeeping's goals were limited to maintaining ceasefires and stabilizing situations on the ground to aid in the political resolution of conflicts by peaceful means.
• Today, peacekeeping operations facilitate political processes, protect civilians, disarm combatants, support elections, protect and promote human rights and restore the rule of law.
• Military observers and lightly armed troops perform monitoring, reporting and confidence-building roles.

Demography:

• Most peacekeepers serve in the military or police.
• Civilians make up 14% of peacekeepers and work in political and civil affairs, human rights, elections, strategic communications, IT, logistics, transport and administration.
• Women peacekeepers serve in various positions, including as police officers, troops, pilots, military observers, and other uniformed and civilian posts, including in command positions.

Recommendations for the UN to Improve UN Peacekeeping Operations

• Improving Geographical Diversity: The UN should develop a framework to enhance the geographical diversity of the countries that contribute troops and police.
• Better Equipping Peacekeepers: The UN should increase efforts to equip, train and prepare peacekeepers for their mission.
• Robust Mandates: The UN should issue robust mandates that require peacekeepers to be proactive in facing and countering armed groups.
• India's 10-Point Plan: The UN should consider India's 10-point plan for more accountability in protecting UN peacekeepers.
• Treating Crimes Against Peacekeepers: Crimes committed against peacekeepers should be treated as war crimes.
• Memorial Wall: The UN should consider India's proposal to construct a memorial wall to honor the sacrifices of UN peacekeepers.