Malthusian, Marxian & Demographic Transition Models | Geography Optional for UPSC (Notes) PDF Download

Introduction

The theorizing about population (population size and change) has remained an important subject since time immemorial. Many of the ancient philosophers like Confucius (China), Kautilya (India), Ibn Khaldun (Arab), Plato (Greece), and modem thinkers like Adam Smith, David Richard, and others, either directly or indirectly, have said somewhat significant on population issues.
For instance, Kautilya, a contemporary of Plato, had written in his Arthashastra that ‘a large population is a source of the political, economic, and military strength of a nation’. Similarly, the 14th-century Arab historian, Ibn Khaldun maintained in his theory of ‘rise and fall’ that the growth of a dense population is generally favorable to the maintenance and increase of imperial power.
To the Jews, the injunction to Adam and Eve by the Almighty to ‘be fruitful and multiply, and replenish the earth’ has been a guiding principle for their attitude towards marriage and procreation. The Chinese philosopher, Confucius argued that a numerical balance be maintained between population and environment.
Thus, he was not in favor of the unchecked growth of the population. He was the first who gave the concept of optimum population level. In ancient Greece, the earliest thinkers favored the expansion of population, but Plato was a restrictionist who advocated as the absolute limit of population.
One of the earliest demographers Edmond Halley (1656-1742) was the first scientist to use death statistics in different age groups to determine a person’s likelihood of death as he or she passed through each age group (Population Today, 1986). But, as a science, it emerged only in the last 250 years. The systematic compilation of data was first begun on a large scale in 19th century Europe.

Malthusian Theory of Population

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) was the key figure to analyze the population statistics. His formulation on population was a landmark in the history of population theories. He generalized the relationship between population factors and social change.
In 1798, Malthus gave a theory on population. This theory is based on the observation of the western European population and society. His theory supported the capitalist system of economics and deterministic approaches to geography. In his theory, he explained the way in which nature controlled the population and neglected the role of technology and medical advancement to control the population.
In his Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) Malthus argued that because of the strong attraction of the two sexes, the population could increase by multiples, doubling every twenty-five years. He contended that the population would eventually grow so large that food production would be insufficient.
The human capacity for reproduction exceeded the rate at which subsistence from the land can be increased. Malthus further wrote ‘Population when unchecked increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsis­tence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.’
Malthus contended that the world’s population was growing more rapidly than the available food supply. He argued that the food supply increases in an arithmetic progression (1, 2, 3, 4, and so on), whereas the population expands by a geometric progression (1, 2, 4, 8, and so on).
According to him, the population could increase by multiples, doubling every twenty-five years. He said the gap between the food supply and population will continue to grow over time.
Even though the food supply will increase, it would be insufficient to meet the needs of the expanding population. Moreover, famine and other natural calamities cause widespread suffering and increase the death rate, which is nature’s check against the population.

In brief, Malthus theory states that

• The population is necessarily limited by the means of subsistence.
• Population invariably increases where means of subsistence increased, unless prevented by some very powerful and obvious checks.
• These checks, and the checks which repress the superior power of the population and keep its effects on a level with the means of subsistence, are all resolvable into moral restraint, vice and misery.

Malthus based his above arguments on man’s two basic characteristics essential to the maintenance of life

• The need for food, and
• the passion between sexes.

It was the second which led people to marry at a relatively early age and would result in such a large number of births that the population would double itself in few years if unchecked by misery and vice.

Malthus referred to two classes of checks which kept population down

1. Positive means: He spoke of famine (hunger), disease or war, pestilence and vicious customs about women.
2. Negative means: He explicitly demanded artificial means of birth control and suggested as an alternative that the birth rate be decreased through preventive measures such as late marriage (postponing marriage until later age), moral restraint, and chastity (abstinence).
He contended that without such restraints the world would face widespread hunger, poverty and misery.
The ‘positive’ and ‘preventive’ checks which occur in the human population to prevent excessive growth relate to practices affecting mortality and fertility respectively.
Malthus saw the tension between population and resources as a major cause of the misery of much of humanity. He was not, however, in favor of contraceptive methods, since their use did not generate the same drive to work hard as would a postponement of marriage.

Malthus argued that positive and preventive checks are inversely related to each other. In other words, where positive checks are very effective, the preventive checks are relatively less effective and vice versa.
However, in all societies, some of these checks are in constant operation although in the varying magnitude of effectiveness. Malthus believed that despite these checks, the inability of increased food supply to keep abreast of population increase always results in some kind of a situation of overpopulation.

Criticism

Malthus’s views have been widely challenged on many grounds. The main criti­cisms about his theory are as under

1. The validity of his two sets of ratios has been questioned by his critics. It is argued that the population has rarely grown in geometrical proportion and means of production have rarely multiplied in arithmetic progression.
   Population growth is not always geometry series. Based on the historical data, the population is not get doubled in 25 years.
2. Malthus overemphasized the ‘positive’ checks and did not visualize the role of ‘preventive’ checks like contraceptives and family planning. Neo-Malthusists argued for the adoption of birth control within marriage. Human inventions in the fields of birth control, health and nutrition, and agriculture have helped to a great extent to strike a balance between human reproduction and food supply.
3. Malthus was also severely criticized for ignoring the role of changing technology and the consequent transformation in the socio-economic set-up of society. He did not fully appreciate the extent to which improved agricultural technology and crop fertilization could sustain a large population.
   Neo-Malthusians agree that there are absolute limits on food supply, energy and other resources. Furthermore, they suggest that the problem is intensified by the disproportionate consumption of such resources by so-called developed (industrialized) actions. This formu­lation has been challenged by other researchers.
   Yet none would deny that starvation is a very real fact even in 2012. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute, out of 79 countries, 65 come under the category of the alarming level of hunger. Burundi, Ethiopia, Chad, Eritrea, and Timor have been categorized as the five hungriest countries in the world. Around the world, we read many reports of starvation death, and malnutrition.
   With such images in mind, a representative of the World Bank stated in 1981 that the ‘ghost of Malthus is not buried yet’. Ironically gains in food supplies do not always lead to progress in the fight against starvation. It puts pressure on food prices that make it more difficult for the poor to buy the food they need.
4. Both the positive checks of hunger and disease referred to by Malthus do not operate today, except the terrible disaster sometimes caused by Tsunami, Katrina, Rita, and floods or rains in desert areas like Banner and Jaisalmer in August 2006.
   But the catastrophe of this nature in any part of the world is immediately rushed to the affected place from surplus areas all over the world. A marked decline in the death rate even in the developing countries is a significant factor in the context of the population spurt.
5. One of the principal weaknesses of Malthus’ thought has been that he neglected the manpower aspect in population growth. He was a pessimist and dreaded every increase in population. He forgot, according to Cannan, that “a baby comes to the world not only with a mouth and a stomach, but also with a pair of hands.”
   This implies that an increase in population means an increase in manpower which may tend to increase not only agricultural but also industrial production and thus makes the country rich by an equitable distribution of wealth and income. As rightly pointed out by Seligman “The problem of population is not merely one of mere size but of efficient production and equitable distribution.” Thus the increase in population may be necessary.
6. Moreover, natural calamities referred to above have occurred in under­-populated areas also and thus there was no causal relationship between positive checks and overpopulation.
7. Malthus also failed to realize even the biological limitations that a population cannot grow beyond certain limits.
8. Malthus a False Prophet: The Malthusian theory is not applicable to countries for which this was propounded. In western European countries, the bogey and pessimism of Malthus have been overcome. His prophecy that misery will stalk these countries if they fail to check the growth of the population through preventive checks has been proved wrong by a decline in birth rate, adequacy of food supply, and increase in agricultural and industrial production. Thus Malthus has proved to be a false prophet.

Applicability

Despite these weaknesses, the Malthusian doctrine contains much truth. The Malthusian doctrine may not be applicable to Western Europe and England but its principal tools have become the part and parcel of the people of these countries. If these lands do not face the problems of over-population and misery, it is all due to the bogey and pessimism of Malthusianism.
In fact, the people of Europe were made wiser by Malthus who forewarned them of the evils of over-population and they started adopting measures toward it off. The very fact that people use preventive checks, like late marriage and various contraceptives and birth control measures on an extensive scale proves the vitality of the Malthusian law.
Even famous economists like Marshall and Pigou and sociologists like Darwin were influenced by this principle when they incorporated it in their theories. And Keynes, initially overawed by the Malthusian fears of over-population, later wrote about “Some Economic Consequences of Declining Population.” Is it not the fear of Malthusianism which has created the problem of a declining population in France?
The Malthusian doctrine may not be applicable now to its place of origin, but its influence spreads over two-third of this universe. Excluding Japan, the whole of Asia, Africa, and South America come under its purview. India is one of the first countries to adopt family planning on the state level to control the population. Positive checks like floods, wars, droughts, diseases, etc. operate. The birth and death rates are high. The growth rate of the population is about 2 percent per annum.
The real aim of population policy is, however, not to avoid starvation but to eliminate poverty so as to raise output per head in an accelerated manner. Thus the Malthusian theory is fully applicable to underdeveloped countries like India. Walker was right when he wrote: “The Malthusian theory is applicable to all communities without any consideration of color and place. Malthusianism has stood un-shattered, impregnable amid all the controversy that has raged around it.”

Summary

Malthusian Theory

• The population growth rate is higher than the growth of the resources. 
• Population grow in geometric series: 1,2,4,8,16
• Resources or food grow in arithmetic series: 1,2,3,4,5,6 
• In 25 years the population would be two times. 
• If population growth is not prevented by man-made checks than positive checks may be arises. 
• There will be a food crisis at some point in time.

Positive Checks on the population growth

• The positive checks include famines, earthquakes, Tsunami, floods, drought, epidemics, Wars, etc. Nature plays up when the population growth goes out of hand.

Preventive Checks on the population growth

• The preventive measures such as late marriage, self-control, simple living, etc. help to balance the population growth and food supply.

In Geography Optional, You have to read the 3 theories of population growth i.e.

1. Malthus Theory
2. Marx’s Theory
3. Demographic Transition Theory

The debate about the Malthusian theory has continued down to the present. Economists such as J.S. Mill and J.M. Keynes supported his theory whereas others, especially, sociologists, have argued against it. According to them, the widespread poverty and misery of the working-class people were, not due to an eternal law of nature as propounded by Malthus but to the misconceived organi­zation of society.
Karl Marx went one step further and argued that starvation was caused by the unequal distribution of wealth and its accumulation by capitalists. It has nothing to do with the population. The population is dependent on economic and social organization. The problems of overpopulation and limits to resources, as enunciated by Malthus, are inherent and inevitable features associated with the capitalist system of production.
Marx’s contention that food production could not increase rapidly was also debated when new technology began to give farmers much greater fields. French sociologist E. Dupreel (1977) argued that an increasing population would spur rapid innovation and development to solve problems, whereas a stable population would be complacent and less likely to progress.
The Marxian approach is also referred as Historical Determinism. His theory of population growth is implicit and is implied in his general theory of communism.

Marxian theory of Population Growth

Karl Marx (1818-1883) is regarded as the Father of Communism. He did not separately propose any theory of population, but his surplus population theory has been deduced from his theory of communism. Marx opposed and criticized the Malthusian theory of population.

Karl Marx criticized the capitalist economy had a very different idea about population growth. For Marx, these social problems were not the fault of the poor workers, but of the capitalist system that exploited them.

Marx made the scientific interpretation of human history. He said just like there are the scientific explanation for the physical phenomenon, the same are there for social phenomenon. He said the essence of history is change in the modes of production in any society and this changes is always progressive.
Marx considered that society, especially feudal and capitalist society has two major economic classes viz.

• The Rich
• The Poor

Rich were those who have means of production and earn their profit by exploiting the poor. On the other hand, the poor were those who sell their energy & will to work to these rich people in exchange of wages.

The employers earn profit by exploiting the poor, this profit is known as surplus profit. According to Marx in no country of world population increase on account of fertility but it increases only on account of capitalist policies.
The capitalist makes labour part of their production and still something out of that. By installing labour-saving machines a capitalist wants to have the maximum surplus-value of that. As a result of this unemployment spreads, wage declines, and poverty increases. The poor population can not nourish their children on account of their poverty thus they try to increase the population by reproduction so that the next generation would also help them to generate extra wages.
However due to the increase in the advanced technology and excess labourers the condition of surplus population and Unemployment generates. This is the main cause of misery.
He came to the conclusion that the main causes of the surplus population were nothing else but the wrong politics of capitalists. Marx was on the view that in the socialist society reproductive behavior would develop a complete harmony between the individual and the society.
Marx suggested that for population control fall of capitalism is the only mean and distributive justice, state control over resources can mitigate the food crisis. Thus his theory is the socio-economic model of population control.

Criticism of Marx
The theory of Marx was criticised on the following grounds

• An increase in population does not necessarily lead to a decrease in wages. There are many socio-economic factors which are responsible.
• Population growth does not necessarily due to a decrease in wages, this may occur due to improved medical facilities.
• The theory of Marx is applicable only in capitalist society and not in other societies.
• According to Marx, the higher the wages, the lower the birth rate, but faith and religion may also play a significant role. This he did not consider.
• It is true to a great extent that in a capitalist society there is a surplus population on account of unemployment. But it is not to presume that under a socialist system there will be no need to check population growth at any stage.
• Even in communist countries, population growth is checked on the plea that no mother should have more children so that their mother so that their health does not deteriorate.
• In the erstwhile USSR, factory workers were provided contraceptives in their factories so that the birth rate was kept low.
• If economic inequality is the main cause of the birth rate then in these countries rates should not differ. Because these inequalities have come to an end. The necessity of family planning is felt in these countries.

The demographic transition theory studies the relationship between economic development and population growth. It discusses about changes in birth rate and death rate and consequently growth rate of population in assonance with the process of growth and development. It is also used to describe and predict the future population of any area.
The theory tells us that the population of any region changes from high births and high deaths to low births and low deaths as society progresses from the rural agrarian and illiterate to urban industrial and literate society.
These changes occur in stages which are collectively known as the demographic cycle. There are four stages of demographic transition related to the state of economic development.

“Demographic transition refers to a population cycle that begins with a fall in the death rate, continues with a phase of rapid population growth and concludes with a decline in the birth rate” – E.G. Dolan.

Demographic Transition Theory

Demographic transition is a term, first used by Warren S. Thompson (1929), and later on by Frank W. Notestein (1945), referring to a historical process of change which accounts for the trends in births, deaths, and population growth that occurred in today’s industrialized societies, especially European societies. This process of demographic change began for the most part in the later 18th century.
Demographic transition should not be regarded as a ‘law of population growth’, but as a generalized description of the evolutionary process. In simple terms, it is a theory which attempts to specify general laws by which human populations change in size and structure during industrialization. It is frequently accepted as a useful tool in describing the demographic history of a country.
The theory postulates a particular pattern of demographic change from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality when society progresses from a largely rural agrarian and illiterate society to a dominant urban, industrial, literate and modern society.

It is typically viewed as a three-stage process
(i) that the decline in immortality comes before the decline in fertility,
(ii) that the fertility eventually declines to match mortality, and
(iii) that socio-economic transformation of society takes place simultaneously with its demographic transformation.
The demographic transition theory is characterized by conspicuous transition stages.
The transition from high birth and death rates to low rates can be divided into three stages (some scholars like Haggett, 1975 have divided into four or five stages):

• Pre-transition stage: High and fluctuating birth and death rates with little population growth.
• Stage I: High birth rates and declining death rates with rapid population growth.
• Stage II: Low birth and death rates with slow population growth.
• Stage III: Birth and death rates both decline appreciably leading to zero population growth. The theory holds that pre-industrial societies were characterized by stable populations that had both a high death rate and birth rate. It postulates a little and slows population growth. The theory states that the high mortality rates characteristic of undeveloped areas will decline before fertility rates which are also high.

First Stage or Stage of High Birth Rate and High Death Rate

In the first stage, the country is at a low level of economic development. Agriculture is the main occupation of the people. The standard of living of the people is low. The death rate is high because of a lack of medical facilities, epidemics, famines, and illiteracy. The birth rate is high because of social and economic reasons. The key notable features of this stage are as follows:

• Population Pyramid in the first stage is Expanding at the bottom
• Stable population
• High birth rate, High infant mortality, and High death rate = low life expectancy
• Many young people, very few older people
• High fertility rate (8+)
• A society dominated by religious belief
• The stagnant economy, No surplus subsistence type of living
• Ex – Sierra Leone, Somalia

The first stage has high fertility and high mortality because people reproduce more to compensate for the deaths due to epidemics and variable food supply. The population growth is slow and most of the people are engaged in agriculture where large families are an asset. Life expectancy is low, people are mostly illiterate and have low levels of technology. Two hundred years ago all the countries of the world were at this stage.

Second Stage or Stage of High Birth Rate and Low Death Rate or Stage of Population Explosion
In this stage, the birth-rate is high but the death rate is low. It results in a high growth rate of the population. In this stage, income begins to rise and economic activities expand. On account of better health facilities and a nourishing diet, the death rate falls rapidly. The birth rate remains high due to social backwardness and limited access to contraceptives. The key notable features of this stage are as follows:

• Population Pyramid in this stage is Rapidly Expanding
• Very rapid increase in population (population explosion)
• Rapid decline in death rate but death rate remains below the birth rate
• Fertility rate remains high
• High birth rate
• High rate of natural increase
• Decline in infant mortality
• Many young people

Fertility remains high at the beginning of the second stage but it declines with time. This is accompanied by a reduced mortality rate. Improvements in sanitation and health conditions lead to a decline in mortality. Because of this gap, the net addition to the population is high.

Third Stage or Stage of Declining Birth Rate and Low Death Rate
In the third stage, a declining birth rate and low death rate lead to low population growth. Along with the economic development of the country, structural changes in the economy begin to take place. A large population begins to reside in urban areas. People start considering large families as a liability. Consequently, the birth rate begins to fall. The death rate continues to be low. The growth rate of the population declines. India is passing through this stage of demographic transition. The key notable features of this stage are as follows:

• The Population Pyramid in the third stage is Stationary
• Population growth slows down
• Birth rate declining rapidly
• The decline in fertility rate
• Death rate declining slowly
• Birth rate approaching death rate
• High life expectancy
• An increasing number of older people

Fourth Stage or Stage of Low Birth Rate and Low Death Rate
In the fourth stage, a low birth rate and a low death rate lead to Population stabilization. In this stage, because of rapid economic development, the standard of living of the people becomes very high. Quality of life is given a priority to the size of the family. The key notable features of this stage are as follows

• Population Pyramid is Contracting
• Stable or slow population increase
• Low birth rate
• Low death rate
• High life expectancy
• Birth rate is approximately the same as the death rate
• The fertility rate is close to or below 2.1
• Many older people

In the last stage, both fertility and mortality decline considerably. The population is either stable or grows slowly. The population becomes urbanized, literate, and has the high technical know-how, and deliberately controls the family size. This shows that human beings are extremely flexible and are able to adjust their fertility. In the present day, different countries are at different stages of demographic transition.

Criticism

Although the theory of demographic transition has been appreciated widely by the demographers, it has been criticized on many grounds also. There are even critics who have gone to the extent of saying that it cannot be called a theory.
Demographic transition stages are not always sequenced in order. After the breaking of the USSR, erstwhile USSR countries apart from Russia shown increases in death rate and went the first stage of the demographic transition from the second & third stage of the demographic theory, because of the withdrawn of the social security scheme.
The main points of criticism are

• Firstly, this theory is merely based upon empirical observations or the experiences of Europe, America, and Australia.
• Secondly, it is neither predictive nor its stages are segmental and inevitable.
• Thirdly, the role of man’s technical innovations cannot be underrated, particularly in the field of medicine, which can arrest the rate of mortality.
• Fourthly, neither does it provide a fundamental explanation of the process of fertility decline, nor does it identify the crucial variables involved in it.
• Fifthly, it does not provide a time frame for a country to move from one stage to another.
• Finally, it does not hold good for the developing countries of the world, which have recently experienced unprecedented growth in population due to the drastic decline in death rates.

In spite of these criticisms and shortcomings, the demographic transition theory does provide an effective portrayal of the world’s demographic history at the macro level of generalizations. As an empirical generalization developed on the basis of observing the demographic trend in the West, the transition process for any country can easily be understood.