The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 17th September, 2022 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

The Consequences of Declining Fertility are Many  

Why in the news?

• The National Family Health Survey (NFHS 2019-21) released its latest data recently. The data indicates a declining trend in the Total Fertility Rate (the average number of children per woman).

What is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR)?

• In simple terms, the total fertility rate (TFR) refers to the total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman during her lifetime if she were subject to the population's prevailing rate of age-specific fertility.
• TFR of approximately 2.1 children per woman is referred to as replacement level fertility. TFR less than 2.1 children per woman – implies that a generation is unable to replace itself, eventually resulting in population reduction.

What is the declining trend of TFR?

• TFR has decreased further from 2.2 recorded in 2015-16 to 2.0 at the all-India level, owing to the continuous family planning programs spanning decades.
• In urban areas, the TFR is 1.6, but in rural India, it is 2.1.
• In the 1950s, the total fertility rate was as high as six or more.
• It is a significant development as a result of improvements in mother and child health.

What are the reasons for the TFR Decrease?

• Women Empowerment: Recent data also indicate significant progress on a number of measures relating to fertility, family planning, marriage age, and women's empowerment – all of which contributed to the decline in TFR.
• There has also been a huge increase in the use of any modern method of contraception.
• The contraceptive Prevalence Rate has increased significantly from 54% to 67% across India.
• Reversible Spacing: Over the years, the introduction of newer reversible spacing (gaps between children) technologies, wage compensation schemes for undergoing sterilization, and promotion of small family norms have also been successful.
• Government Efforts: For a long period of time, India has worked on population control. Indeed, India was the first country to establish a national-level family planning program, and the good outcomes that have been achieved thus far are the result of continuous, concentrated efforts by the Centre and state governments.

What is the importance of a Declining TFR?

• Population Stabilisation: A TFR of 2 is a "definite indicator" of the country's population stability over the long term. A TFR of 2.1 is a desirable target for a country.
• A decrease to two indicates that India has attained population stabilization.
• This simply suggests that India does not need to be concerned about a large population hindering its progress.
• Accelerated Economic Growth: For the next 2-3 decades, the younger population profile will create an opportunity for accelerated economic growth.
• However, in order to maximize this tremendous possibility for accelerated development, India should invest in public health and skill-based education.
• Delayed Peak Population: This also means that we may still become the world's most populous country — it was expected to happen between 2024 and 2028 — but it will be delayed now.

What are the worrying trends?

• Female Sterilization Uptake Increases: According to the report, female sterilization uptake has increased to 38% from 36% in 2015-16.
• The increase in female sterilization demonstrates that women continue to bear the burden of family planning, with men abstaining from the process and "shrugging responsibility".
• India needs to place an emphasis on declining sex ratios and gender discrimination against girls in order to prevent individuals from having an excessive number of children in the hope of having a boy.
• Concerns about Low TFR: A TFR of fewer than 2.1 children per woman suggests that a generation is not generating enough offspring to replace itself, eventually resulting in population decline.
• Thus, having a TFR of less than 2 (as is the situation in metropolitan regions of India) creates its own set of complications. For instance, a declining population will result in an increase in the elderly population, as is currently occurring in China.

Way forward

• The Government must implement a targeted social and behavior-change communication strategy to ensure that males take responsibility for family planning as well.
• Environment Protection: Stabilization of the population does not mean that India's priority can be shifted away from environmental protection.