The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 19th September, 2022 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

Crisis in Caucasus  

Context: There is an ongoing fight between Armenian rebels and the Azerbaijani Army in Nagorno-Karabakh, a self-declared republic within Azerbaijan.

What is the problem?

• This fight risks becoming a wider regional conflict.
• Recently, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to a Russia-mediated ceasefire after days of fighting.
• But, the ceasefire crumbled immediately amid a blame game.
• Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, seems determined to press ahead with its offensive.

What is the story behind?

• The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is decades old.
• The region is largely populated by ethnic Armenians.
• It is located within the international boundaries of Azerbaijan.
• Under the Soviet Union, it was an autonomous province that was part of the Azerbaijan republic.
• In 1988, when the Soviet power was receding, the regional assembly in Nagorno-Karabakh voted to join Armenia, triggering ethnic clashes.
• After the Soviet disintegration in 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan went to war over this largely mountainous, forested enclave.
• By the time a ceasefire was reached in 1994, the rebels had established their de facto rule, with support from Armenia and Russia.
• The rebels extended their influence to the Armenian border.
• Ever since, the border has remained tense.

What makes the clashes now far more dangerous?

• External intervention makes the clashes now far more dangerous.
• Turkey has called Armenia a threat to peace in the region.
• The Azeris and Turks share ethnic and linguistic bonds.
• Also, the pre-Soviet Azerbaijan was a local ally of the Ottomans when they invaded Transcaucasia in the last leg of World War I.
• For Turkey, which is trying to expand its geopolitical reach to the former Ottoman regions, the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is an opportunity to enter the South Caucasus.

What is the problem for Turkey?

• Turkey also has a particularly bad relationship with Armenia.
• But its problem is that Armenia is a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

What is the privilege for Armenia?

• Russia enjoys good economic and defence ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
• But Armenia, as a CSTO member and host to a Russian military base, has more weight.
• In a wider conflict, Armenia could trigger Article 4 of the CSTO treaty and ask for Russian help.
• And if Moscow responds favourably, that would pit Russia against Turkey, a NATO member.

What is Russia trying to do?

• Russia, already involved in military conflicts in Syria, Ukraine and Libya, may not like opening another front.
• That is why it has re-emphasised its neutrality and hosted talks for a truce.
• But it will be forced to take sides if the conflict spills into Armenia.

What is needed?

• Both sides should understand the situation and call off the hostilities.
• Nagorno-Karabakh has in the past witnessed large-scale ethnic violence.
• Instead of risking a regional war, Azerbaijan, Armenia and the Karabakh rebels should go back to the ceasefire and open up diplomatic channels.