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A Budget that signals growth with stability
Context
The Union Finance Minister tabled the Economic Survey for the Financial Year 2022-23, after the President’s address.
- The Economic Survey 2022-23 highlighted that India’s economic recovery from the pandemic is complete and the economy is expected to grow in the range of 6% to 6.8% in the coming financial year 2023-24.
- The Economic Survey of India is an annual document released by the Ministry of Finance. It is usually presented in Parliament a day before the Union Budget.
- It is prepared by the Economics Division of the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) under the guidance of the Chief Economic Advisor.
- It reviews the developments in the Indian economy over the previous 12 months and presents the economic outlook for the current fiscal year.
- It also presents the current state of the Indian economy, including data on gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, employment, and trade.
- The first Economic Survey in India was presented in the year 1950-51.
- Up to 1964, it was presented along with the Union Budget. From 1964 onwards, it has been delinked from the Budget.
Key highlights of the Economic Survey 2023:
| Key parameters | Projections/ Performance | Drivers/ Takeaways |
| GDP growth | India is to witness GDP growth of 6.0 – 6.8% in 2023-24, depending on the trajectory of economic and political developments globally | ● The rebound of private consumption ● Higher Capital Expenditure (Capex) ● Near-universal vaccination Return of migrant workers to cities ● strengthening the balance sheets of the Corporates, ● Well-capitalized public sector banks ready to increase the credit supply to the MSME sector |
| Inflation | ● The RBI has projected headline inflation at 6.8% in FY23, outside its comfort zone of 2% to 6%. ● However, the Survey sounded optimistic about the inflation levels. | Not high enough to deter private consumption and not low to weaken the inducement to invest |
| Employment-Unemployment | The PLFS showed that the urban unemployment rate for people aged 15 years and above declined from 9.8% in the quarter ending September 2021 to 7.2% one year later. | ● Despite layoffs, the number of direct jobs created by Indian startups rose 36% in 2022. ● Improvement in the labor force participation rate ● The initial surge in exports ● A strong release of the “pent-up” demand ● A swift rollout of the capex. |
| Health | ● India’s budgeted expenditure on the health sector reached 2.1% of the GDP in the financial year 2023 (Budget estimates) and 2.2% in FY 2022 (revised estimates). ● The National Health Policy 2017 as well as the 15th Finance Commission recommended 2.5% by 2025. | ● Increase in the share of government health expenditure (in comparison to the total health expenditure) ● This is due to expenditure incurred on the national Covid-19 vaccination program, Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan, Intensified Mission Indradhanush (MI) program ● The decline in out-of-pocket expenditure ● Ayushman Bharat Jan Arogya Yojana (AB-JAY) falling short of the target: Less than 50% of the originally targeted 50 crore beneficiaries under the scheme. |
| Education | As a share of total GDP, the budgetary allocation for education saw only a minimal gain of 0.1 percentage points, from 2.8% to 2.9% during the same seven-year period. | ● Decline in the govt share of expenditure, while the expenditure on social services increased. ● COVID worsens dropout rates at primary and upper primary school levels ● Higher education enrolment increased |
| Agriculture | ● The Indian agriculture sector has been growing at an average annual growth rate of 4.6% during the last six years. ● In recent years, India has also rapidly emerged as the net exporter of agricultural products (an all-time high of $50.2 billion during 2021-22) | ● Strong agri growth led to a YoY dip in monthly demand for MGNREGS. ● Interventions like the PM Kisan, PMFBY, and the push given to Kisan Credit Cards have been significant. ● The sector needs “re-orientation” given challenges like adverse impacts of climate change, fragmented landholdings, and rising input costs. |
| Services: Source of strength
| ● India has been placed among the top 10 service-exporting countries in the year 2021. ● The commercial services export has increased from 3% in 2015 to 4% in 2021. | ● Contact-intensive services like hotel, tourism, retail trade, entertainment, and recreation, have registered a sequential growth of 16% at pre-pandemic levels. ● Non-contact intensive services like ICT, financial, professional, and business services have contributed significantly to the economy. |
| Industry: Steady recovery | The industry not only accounts for 31% of the GDP but also has a significant contribution in generating employment for up to 12.1 crore people in the financial year 2023, directly or indirectly. | ● Path-breaking measures such as PM GatiShakti, the National Logistics Policy, and the Production-Linked Incentive schemes to boost manufacturing output. |
| Infrastructure | Digital infra: In 2022, over a billion people have unique digital ID documents, more than 80% have bank accounts, and over 600 cr digital payment transactions have been completed on a monthly basis. | ● Digital infrastructure has given robust growth during the pandemic era. ● Digital infra can add 60-100 bps to GDP growth. ● Government’s vision for physical infrastructure development – Public Private Partnerships, National Infrastructure Pipeline, National Monetisation Pipeline, etc. |
| Climate Change and Environment: Preparing to Face the Future
| ● India declared the Net Zero Pledge to achieve a net zero emissions goal by 2070. ● India achieved its target of 40% installed electric capacity from non-fossil fuels ahead of 2030. | ● National Green Hydrogen Mission to enable India to be energy independent by 2047. ● The Survey highlights the progress on eight missions under the NAPCC to address climate concerns and promote sustainable development. ● E- vehicle sales to touch 1Cr units by 2030. |
| Shipbuilding | · As of date, more than 130 warships have been constructed at Indian shipyards, and currently, 41 of 43 ships and submarines are being constructed at various public and private sector shipyards in India
| · Shipbuilding has one of the highest employment multipliers and is capable of generating mass employment in remote, coastal, and rural areas
|
| Startups | · Despite layoffs, the number of direct jobs created by Startups rose 36 percent to around 2.7 lakh last year · The number of start-ups recognized by the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) has increased from 452 in 2016 to 84,012 in 2022 | · Start-ups are being envisioned as the spine of the ‘new India’ as they encouraged youth to become job creators rather than job seekers |
| Electronics | · India is on the “right trajectory” to reach $300 billion worth of electronics manufacturing and $120 billion in exports by FY26 due to an improvement in manufacturing and export over the last five years. | · India has become the second-largest mobile phone manufacturer globally · Domestic companies, such as Tata, have indicated an interest in establishing semiconductor fabrication plants in the country |
- Uncertainty remains: The Survey signals that vulnerabilities to India’s growth mainly stem from external factors, while domestic drivers remain strong.
- For example, there are upside risks to commodity prices from external factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China rapidly reopening its economic activity, etc.
- 2023 = 2003: The Survey argued that the situation in 2023 is similar to 2003, as the period between 2014 and 2022 is analogous to 1998-2002 when despite transformative reforms by the government, the Indian economy lagged in growth returns.
- This was due to temporary shocks such as the US sanctions after India’s nuclear test, two successive droughts, the collapse of the tech boom, etc. But once these shocks faded, the structural reforms paid growth dividends from 2003.
- Similarly, the successive shocks in recent years, such as the ILFS collapse, the COVID-19 pandemic, etc., have led to a lag in the growth effects of sweeping reforms across multiple dimensions.
- Vigilant on inflation, and deficit: Monetary and fiscal authorities will need to stay proactive and vigilant on inflation as well as the worsening CAD front, which is facing multiple risks due to slowing exports, rising import bills, etc.
- The private sector should take the lead: Though the fiscal policy has supported public investments for infrastructure projects, the time has probably come for the private sector to take on the baton of contributing to economic growth.
Conclusion
Despite challenges, the Indian economy has almost “recouped” what it lost in 2022–2023 and has “renewed” and “re-energized” what had slowed down due to the pandemic.
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FAQs on The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 2nd February 2023 - Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC
| 1. What is the significance of analyzing The Hindu editorials? |  |
Ans. Analyzing The Hindu editorials is important as it helps in understanding and gaining insights into current affairs, national and international events, and various perspectives on important issues. The editorials provide a comprehensive analysis of different topics, helping readers to develop a well-rounded perspective on important issues.
| 2. How can I improve my editorial analysis skills? | |
Ans. To improve editorial analysis skills, one can start by reading editorials regularly and taking notes on the main arguments, supporting evidence, and the author's tone. It is also helpful to engage in discussions and debates on the topics covered in the editorials, as it allows for a deeper understanding and critical thinking. Additionally, seeking feedback from experts or joining study groups can further enhance editorial analysis skills.
| 3. What are some common techniques used in editorial analysis? | |
Ans. Some common techniques used in editorial analysis include identifying the main argument and supporting evidence, evaluating the credibility of the sources cited, examining the author's tone and bias, analyzing the logical structure of the argument, and considering the context in which the editorial was written. These techniques help in critically analyzing the editorials and forming informed opinions.
| 4. How can I apply editorial analysis to my exam preparation? | |
Ans. Applying editorial analysis to exam preparation involves using the skills acquired through analyzing editorials to critically analyze and evaluate different perspectives or arguments presented in the exam questions. By practicing editorial analysis, one can develop the ability to identify key points, evaluate evidence, and construct coherent and well-supported arguments in their exam responses.
| 5. Are there any online resources available for editorial analysis practice? | |
Ans. Yes, there are several online resources available for editorial analysis practice. Websites such as The Hindu, The New York Times, and The Guardian provide a wide range of editorials on various topics. Additionally, there are online platforms and forums where individuals can engage in discussions and debates on editorials, further enhancing their analysis skills.
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