The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 4th November 2022 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

Context

The annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27), will soon begin in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Shaikh.

• Apart from that, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was selected to host COP28 international climate conference in the year 2023.

Conference of Parties(COP)

• It is the supreme decision-making body of the UNFCCC.

• Aim:
  • The agreement seeks to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industry levels. 
• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): 
  • To achieve the targets under the agreement, the member countries have to submit the targets themselves, which they believe would lead to substantial progress towards reaching the Paris temperature goal. 
  • Initially, these targets are called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). 
  • They are converted to NDCs when the country ratifies the agreement.

Who will host the COP27?

• The Government of Egypt will host the 27^th Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC (COP 27) at Sharm El Sheikh. This is the fifth time that a Conference of the Parties (COP) is being held in Africa. It is expected to bring global attention to the climate crisis faced by Africa – one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change.

Who will attend the event?

• More than 200 governments were invited to attend the COP27. Environmental charities, community groups, think tanks, businesses and faith groups will also take part in this global event.

What are the focus areas of COP27?

• The COP27 will focus on three main objectives – emission reduction, help countries prepare and respond to climate change and provide technical aid and funding for developing countries to respond to climate change.

Issues with current climate mitigation strategies

• Technology not yet developed: Technology at the required scale is unprepared to deal with the climate challenge.
• Limited sources for renewables: electricity (non-emitting electricity generated by hydropower, renewables or nuclear fission), carbon capture and storage (CCS) or
• The total demand for those resources required by the plans discussed at COP26 cannot be met by 2050.
• Ignores forest economies: Tech-centric mitigation conversations leave forest economies and their conservation.
• Vague pledge:g. Countries may easily attempt to achieve their ‘net zero deforestation goals’ through monoculture farming. But this won’t be of much help.
• What does the research say?
• In 2003, Ken Caldeira at the Carnegie Institution found that the world would need a nuclear plant’s worth of clean-energy capacity every day between 2000 and 2050 to avoid catastrophic climate change.

Role of Technology in countering Climate Change

• Demand for Transfer of Technology: Calls for developing and transferring technologies to support action on climate change have become louder worldwide.
• Overdependence on Technology: Technology has become a survival strategy for our species, but the degree of techno-determinism that exists in the strategy to reverse climate change is alarming.
• Technology alone is unprepared to deal with the challenge, which requires a societal overhaul and a zero emission strategy.
• History is on the side of technological innovation. Norman Borlaug, for instance, ushered in the Green Revolution, which fed billions of people and increased yields.
• But we may need a few million climate Borlaugs to tackle the problems staring at us,

Global picture

• EU:
  • As a bloc, the European Union has done relatively better on climate goals, with the United Kingdom, which is struggling with an economic downturn right now, halving its emissions from 1990 levels, UN data shows. 
• USA:
  • The United States, the world’s leading emitter till it was overtaken by China in the mid 2000s, has been a major laggard, cutting its emissions by only about 7 percent from 1990 levels.
• India & China:
  • China’s emissions have risen by almost four times, and India’s by about three times, during this period.

Technological Optimism in UNFCCC COP 26

• COP26 at Glasgow also fuelled technological optimism. There was an observation that every technological solution discussed at COP26 depends on just three resources:
• Nelectricity (non-emitting electricity generated by hydropower, renewables or nuclear fission),
• Carbon capture and Storage (CCS) or
• Biomass
• Nelectricity: We currently have 4kWh/day of nelectricity per person. But the COP26 plans require 32 (range 16-48).
• Carbon capture and Storage (CCS): We currently have 6kg of CCS per person per year, but the COP26 plans require 3,600 (range 1,400-5,700).
• Biomass: We eat 100kg plant-based food per person each year, but producing enough bio-kerosene to fly at today’s levels requires 200kg of additional harvest.

Associated Concerns with Technological Optimism

• Tech-centric mitigation conversations leave forest economies and subjects such as conservation and forests, which are the best carbon removal instruments, to the ideological fringes of climate conversation.
• The total demand for those resources required by the plans discussed at COP26 cannot be met by 2050.
• There is no possibility that our supplies of these will be near the levels required by the plans discussed at COP26.

Why we need a forest led- mitigation effort:

• Absorption of CO2: Forests absorb a net 6 billion metric tonnes of CO2 a year.
• Cooling: A new study has found that their biophysical aspects have a tendency to cool the earth by an additional 0.5%.
• More effective: The conservation of forests, along with other nature-based solutions, can provide up to 37% of the emissions reductions needed to tackle climate change.
• Scientists, in a commentary in Nature, have stated that naturally preserved forests are 40% more effective than planted ones.
• Cheaper: green infrastructure (salt marshes and mangroves) is 2-5 times cheaper

What are the other measures that can be taken?

• The IPCC Land Report estimates that land serves as a large CO2 sink.
• Preserving earth’s cyclical processes by protecting terrestrial ecosystems and natural sinks and transformative agricultural practices under the leadership of indigenous people and local communities.
• Thus, Technology, at best, can assist us, not lead us, on the pathway to a sustainable, regenerative and equitable world.

Glasgow Climate Meet (Cop26)

• Glasgow meet strengthened the Paris Agreement mechanism of eliciting Pledges from countries and ratcheting them up over time.
• It requested countries to update and strengthen 2030 emission targets in their NDCs by the end of 2022.
• It explicitly revolved around keeping 1.5 degrees alive through such pledges.
• However, it came under criticism that it focused on target setting, without giving sufficient importance to the challenge of implementing those targets.

India’s 'Panchamrit' strategy 

India’s 'Panchamrit' strategy was announced at the COP 26 in Glasgow conference into enhanced climate targets.

• India will increase its non-fossil fuel energy capacity to 500 gigawatt (GW) by 2030.
• It will meet 50 percent of its energy requirements from renewable sources by 2030.
• The total projected carbon emissions will be reduced by 1 billion tonnes from now through 2030.
• The carbon intensity of its economy will be brought down to less than 45 percent.
• India will achieve its target of net zero by 2070. 

Suggestions & way ahead

• Suggestion by Emissions Gap Report:
  • For a realistic chance to keep global warming within 1.5 degree Celsius, annual emissions would need to drop from the current level of about 50 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent to about 33 billion tonnes by 2030 and 8 billion tonnes by 2050, according to the newest Emissions Gap Report. 
  • Even for meeting the 2-degree target, emissions have to come down to about 41 billion tonnes by 2030 and 20 billion tonnes by 2050.
  • This would require drastic action from all the major emitters
• Approaching the action plans:
  • First, climate change is a global problem and it requires cooperation between all nations.
  • Second, it needs rules that are fair and just, for the poor and the rich alike.
  • Third, science is clear that humans are responsible for the global temperature rise and that this increase will lead to more and more variable and extreme weather events, much like what we are seeing now.
  • Four, it is possible to estimate each country’s responsibility for the stock of emissions already in the atmosphere — the historical cumulative emissions that have “forced” climate change impacts.
  • And fifth, countries that have not yet contributed to the emissions will do so in the future, simply because the world has reneged on the need to make global rules that would apply fairly to all.