Manufacturers are welcoming the news that the ban on certain kinds of ...
Manufacturers are welcoming the news that the ban on certain kinds of oil exports from the United States will soon be lifted, a move that will particularly benefit oil companies that produce unrefined oil such as condensate, allowing them to sell their oil overseas without having to make use of refineries. For this reason, the oil refining industry is likely to suffer heavy losses.
Which of the following questions most helps to evaluate the above argument?
Argument Analysis
Pre-Thinking
Pre-Thinking Approach
In order to evaluate the linkage, we’ll pre think assumptions. Any question that can help us evaluate a central assumption made by the author will be the correct evaluating question. To do so, let’s look at linkage 1 and understand the conditions under which it doesn’t hold. The assumption then will be that these conditions don’t exist.
Linkage#1 – Manufacturers are welcoming the news that the ban on certain kinds of oil exports from the United States will soon be lifted, a move that will particularly benefit oil companies that produce unrefined oil allowing them to sell their oil overseas without having to make use of refineries.
- Falsification Condition: What if the bulk of the business of the refineries does not come from the oil exported out of the country? In such a scenario, even though the manufacturers will be able to export unrefined oil, the refining industry will probably not be severely impacted by the lifting of the ban. Hence the author assumes that:
- Assumption: For the refining industry, a significant proportion of their business comes from the current export of refined oil by the US manufacturers.
With this pre-thinking in mind, let’s evaluate the answer choices.
Answer Choices
A
Will the oil companies that want to export unrefined oil be able to do so using the same methods that they use to export refined oil?
Incorrect – Irrelevant
The method of export has no bearing on the likelihood of refiners suffering from heavy losses due to the export of unrefined oil.
B
Do the refineries that process oil for export themselves produce oil for supply to various buyers within the country?
Incorrect – Irrelevant
Whether the refiners themselves supply the oil within the country is insignificant, so far as the proportion of refined oil sold within the country is a significant source of business for these refiners.
C
Can companies currently seeking to export oil overseas do so without authorization from the Department of Commerce?
Incorrect – Irrelevant
The question is whether the export of unrefined oil significantly impact the business of the refining industry not how the manufacturers will be able to export oil.
D
Will lifting the ban on some kinds of oil products lead to increased sales of exported oil, thereby boosting the country’s economy?
Incorrect – Irrelevant
Even if the overall economy is boosted, it gives us no information to evaluate the specific impact on the refining industry.
E
Does the oil refined for exporting form a considerable proportion of the business for the refining industry?
Correct
This choice is written along the lines of our pre-thinking per Linkage assumption.