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The probability distribution to represent the completion time of the project as per the PERT analysis is
- a)Normal distribution
- b)beta distribution
- c)gamma distribution
- d)log-normal distribution
Correct answer is option 'A'. Can you explain this answer?
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The probability distribution to represent the completion time of the p...
Answer:
The completion time of a project in PERT analysis follows a normal distribution. PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) is a statistical tool used in project management to estimate the expected completion time of a project. It is based on the assumption that the completion time follows a normal distribution.
Explanation:
The PERT analysis involves the estimation of three time estimates for each activity in a project:
1. Optimistic Time (O): This is the shortest time in which an activity can be completed under ideal conditions.
2. Pessimistic Time (P): This is the longest time in which an activity can be completed considering all possible delays and setbacks.
3. Most Likely Time (M): This is the best estimate of the time required to complete an activity under normal conditions.
Using these three time estimates, the expected completion time (TE) and the standard deviation (SD) of each activity can be calculated as follows:
Expected Completion Time (TE) = (O + 4M + P) / 6
Standard Deviation (SD) = (P - O) / 6
The completion time of the entire project is then calculated by summing up the expected completion times of all the activities in the critical path. According to the Central Limit Theorem, when independent random variables are added, their sum tends towards a normal distribution, regardless of the shape of the original distributions.
In PERT analysis, the completion time of the project is the sum of completion times of individual activities. Since the completion times of activities are assumed to follow a normal distribution, the completion time of the project also follows a normal distribution.
The normal distribution is a symmetric probability distribution that is often used to model random variables that have a bell-shaped curve. It is characterized by its mean and standard deviation. The mean represents the expected value or average, while the standard deviation represents the spread or variability of the data.
Therefore, the correct answer is option A - Normal distribution, as it is the most appropriate probability distribution to represent the completion time of the project in PERT analysis.
The completion time of a project in PERT analysis follows a normal distribution. PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) is a statistical tool used in project management to estimate the expected completion time of a project. It is based on the assumption that the completion time follows a normal distribution.
Explanation:
The PERT analysis involves the estimation of three time estimates for each activity in a project:
1. Optimistic Time (O): This is the shortest time in which an activity can be completed under ideal conditions.
2. Pessimistic Time (P): This is the longest time in which an activity can be completed considering all possible delays and setbacks.
3. Most Likely Time (M): This is the best estimate of the time required to complete an activity under normal conditions.
Using these three time estimates, the expected completion time (TE) and the standard deviation (SD) of each activity can be calculated as follows:
Expected Completion Time (TE) = (O + 4M + P) / 6
Standard Deviation (SD) = (P - O) / 6
The completion time of the entire project is then calculated by summing up the expected completion times of all the activities in the critical path. According to the Central Limit Theorem, when independent random variables are added, their sum tends towards a normal distribution, regardless of the shape of the original distributions.
In PERT analysis, the completion time of the project is the sum of completion times of individual activities. Since the completion times of activities are assumed to follow a normal distribution, the completion time of the project also follows a normal distribution.
The normal distribution is a symmetric probability distribution that is often used to model random variables that have a bell-shaped curve. It is characterized by its mean and standard deviation. The mean represents the expected value or average, while the standard deviation represents the spread or variability of the data.
Therefore, the correct answer is option A - Normal distribution, as it is the most appropriate probability distribution to represent the completion time of the project in PERT analysis.
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Community Answer
The probability distribution to represent the completion time of the p...
PERT is almost identical to the critical path method (CPM) technique except it assumes each activity duration has a range that follows a statistical distribution.
- In PERT the Normal distribution is used for the completion time of Project.
- PERT uses three-time estimates for each activity. Basically, this means each activity duration can range from an optimistic time to a pessimistic time, and a weighted avenge can be computed for each activity.
- Because project activities usually represent work, and because work tends to stay behind once it gets behind, the PERT developers chose an approximation of the beta distribution to represent activity durations.
- The activity durations can be skewed more toward the high or low end of the data range.
- Figure A depicts a beta distribution for activity duration that is skewed toward the right and is representative of work that tends to stay late once it is behind.
- The distribution for the project duration is represented by a normal (symmetrical) distribution shown in Figure B.
- The project distribution represents the sum of the weighted avenges of the activities on the critical path.
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The probability distribution to represent the completion time of the project as per the PERT analysis isa)Normal distributionb)beta distributionc)gamma distributiond)log-normal distributionCorrect answer is option 'A'. Can you explain this answer?
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